Serie A Betanohub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras | 20 | 44 | 34.6 | +9.4Outperforming ++ | 2 | +2.5 | +6.9 | 0:3 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Atletico-MG (-2.0) |
2 | Athletico-PR | 20 | 36 | 27.4 | +8.7Outperforming ++ | 11 | +7.3 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Internacional (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Corinthians (-1.4) |
3 | Coritiba | 20 | 27 | 21.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 17 | -0.5 | +5.7 | 1:2 vs Cruzeiro (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Sao Paulo (-1.4) |
4 | Vitoria | 20 | 26 | 21.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 18 | +9.6 | -5.2 | 2:0 vs Sao Paulo (+1.8) | 2:0 vs Remo (-1.2) |
5 | Botafogo RJ | 20 | 29 | 25.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 15 | +0.9 | +2.7 | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Remo (-2.0) |
6 | Bragantino | 20 | 31 | 27.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 8 | +0.3 | +2.8 | 3:0 vs Flamengo RJ (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Botafogo RJ (-1.8) |
7 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 28 | 25.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 14 | +1.9 | +0.6 | 1:2 vs Palmeiras (+2.3) | 2:0 vs Vitoria (-1.2) |
8 | Bahia | 20 | 31 | 29.6 | +1.4On expectation | 5 | -2.8 | +4.2 | 0:1 vs Internacional (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Cruzeiro (-1.7) |
9 | Fluminense | 20 | 33 | 31.7 | +1.3On expectation | 3 | +4.1 | -2.9 | 2:3 vs Santos (+1.8) | 3:2 vs Vasco (-1.6) |
10 | Remo | 20 | 21 | 20.0 | +1.0On expectation | 19 | +0.6 | +0.4 | 1:2 vs Botafogo RJ (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Athletico-PR (-1.6) |
11 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 38 | 37.4 | +0.6On expectation | 1 | -1.9 | +2.5 | 1:2 vs Fluminense (+1.5) | 0:3 vs Palmeiras (-1.9) |
12 | Corinthians | 20 | 28 | 28.9 | -0.9On expectation | 6 | +0.4 | -1.3 | 0:1 vs Athletico-PR (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Coritiba (-2.0) |
13 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3On expectation | 12 | +2.1 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs Flamengo RJ (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Athletico-PR (-1.7) |
14 | Gremio | 20 | 22 | 24.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 16 | +2.9 | -5.1 | 5:3 vs Botafogo RJ (+1.5) | 1:3 vs Corinthians (-1.2) |
15 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 27 | 31.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 4 | -5.4 | +1.0 | 1:2 vs Bahia (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Coritiba (-2.3) |
16 | Santos | 20 | 22 | 27.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 10 | -1.3 | -4.3 | 1:0 vs Atletico-MG (+1.4) | 0:3 vs Coritiba (-2.0) |
17 | Mirassol | 19 | 20 | 26.6 | -6.6Underperforming −− | 13 | -1.9 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs Internacional (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Coritiba (-2.0) |
18 | Vasco | 20 | 21 | 27.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 9 | -0.9 | -5.7 | 3:2 vs Fluminense (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Atletico-MG (-1.8) |
19 | Chapecoense-SC | 20 | 10 | 17.3 | -7.3Underperforming −− | 20 | -4.5 | -2.7 | 4:2 vs Santos (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Remo (-1.4) |
20 | Internacional | 20 | 21 | 28.4 | -7.4Underperforming −− | 7 | -5.9 | -1.5 | 1:2 vs Santos (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Bahia (-1.8) |
