Serie A Betanohub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mirassol | 37 | 67 | 46.9 | +20.1Outperforming ++ | 12 | +13.0 | +7.1 | 0:2 vs Sao Paulo (+2.2) | 3:3 vs Flamengo RJ (-1.3) |
2 | Cruzeiro | 37 | 69 | 56.0 | +13.0Outperforming ++ | 4 | +7.9 | +5.0 | 2:1 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Ceara (-2.2) |
3 | Fluminense | 37 | 64 | 55.6 | +8.4Outperforming ++ | 5 | +11.9 | -3.4 | 0:2 vs Internacional (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Cruzeiro (-1.5) |
4 | Botafogo RJ | 37 | 63 | 57.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 3 | +2.5 | +3.3 | 0:1 vs Santos (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Cruzeiro (-1.6) |
5 | Palmeiras | 37 | 73 | 67.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +0.5 | +5.0 | 1:3 vs Ceara (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Bahia (-2.1) |
6 | Bahia | 37 | 60 | 54.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 6 | +10.5 | -5.4 | 0:1 vs Palmeiras (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Fortaleza (-2.1) |
7 | Flamengo RJ | 37 | 78 | 74.3 | +3.7Outperforming | 1 | +4.6 | -0.9 | 0:2 vs Palmeiras (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Bahia (-2.0) |
8 | Vitoria | 37 | 44 | 41.4 | +2.6Outperforming | 17 | +6.2 | -3.5 | 0:1 vs Santos (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Santos (-1.6) |
9 | Atletico | 19 | 35 | 32.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 20 | +2.3 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs MG-Botafogo RJ (+1.4) | 1:3 vs MG-Gremio (-2.0) |
10 | MG-Gremio | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 36 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 1:3 vs Atletico (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Atletico (2.2) |
11 | MG-Palmeiras | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 23 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 0:3 vs Atletico (+1.4) | 0:3 vs Atletico (1.4) |
12 | Juventude | 37 | 34 | 32.8 | +1.2On expectation | 19 | +1.7 | -0.6 | 1:3 vs Vasco (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.4) |
13 | Bragantino | 37 | 48 | 46.9 | +1.1On expectation | 11 | +1.2 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Sao Paulo (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Fortaleza (-1.8) |
14 | Gremio | 37 | 46 | 45.6 | +0.4On expectation | 13 | +3.9 | -3.4 | 2:3 vs Internacional (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.8) |
15 | MG-Vitoria | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3On expectation | 39 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 2:2 vs Atletico (+0.3) | 2:2 vs Atletico (0.3) |
16 | MG-Fortaleza | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3On expectation | 38 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 3:3 vs Atletico (+0.3) | 3:3 vs Atletico (0.3) |
17 | MG-Juventude | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3On expectation | 37 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 0:0 vs Atletico (+0.3) | 0:0 vs Atletico (0.3) |
18 | Vasco | 37 | 45 | 44.8 | +0.2On expectation | 15 | +0.3 | -0.1 | 1:3 vs Sao Paulo (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Juventude (-2.1) |
19 | MG-Corinthians | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 35 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 0:0 vs Atletico (+0.2) | 0:0 vs Atletico (0.2) |
20 | MG-Sao Paulo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 30 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 0:0 vs Atletico (+0.0) | 0:0 vs Atletico (0.0) |
21 | MG-Santos | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 28 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.0) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.0) |
22 | MG-Cruzeiro | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5On expectation | 24 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+-0.5) | 1:1 vs Atletico (-0.5) |
23 | MG-Vasco | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 40 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 5:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 5:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
24 | MG-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7On expectation | 22 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 1:1 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
25 | MG-Sport Recife | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 34 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 3:1 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 3:1 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
26 | MG-Ceara | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 33 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
27 | MG-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 32 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
28 | MG-Fluminense | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 31 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 3:2 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 3:2 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
29 | MG-Bragantino | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 29 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-1.0) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-1.0) |
30 | MG-Bahia | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 27 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
31 | MG-Mirassol | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 26 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
32 | MG-Botafogo RJ | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 25 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
33 | Ceara | 37 | 43 | 44.4 | -1.4On expectation | 16 | -2.6 | +1.3 | 1:2 vs Cruzeiro (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Juventude (-1.9) |
34 | Sao Paulo | 37 | 50 | 52.8 | -2.8Underperforming | 8 | +1.1 | -3.9 | 0:2 vs Vasco (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Ceara (-2.0) |
35 | Fortaleza | 37 | 42 | 45.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 14 | -1.7 | -1.7 | 2:3 vs Bahia (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Ceara (-1.6) |
36 | Corinthians | 37 | 46 | 50.5 | -4.5Underperforming | 10 | -1.0 | -3.5 | 2:3 vs Vasco (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Ceara (-1.9) |
37 | Santos | 37 | 46 | 51.4 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 9 | -2.6 | -2.7 | 1:2 vs Cruzeiro (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Vitoria (-2.0) |
38 | Atletico-MG | 19 | 13 | 21.7 | -8.7Underperforming −− | 21 | 0.0 | -8.7 | 0:1 vs Ceara (+1.7) | 1:0 vs Vitoria (-1.5) |
39 | Internacional | 37 | 44 | 54.1 | -10.1Underperforming −− | 7 | -3.7 | -6.5 | 1:2 vs Ceara (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Gremio (-1.8) |
40 | Sport Recife | 37 | 17 | 38.8 | -21.8Underperforming −− | 18 | -14.9 | -6.9 | 0:1 vs Gremio (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Juventude (-1.7) |
