Serie A title race 2026: who will win the league?
Brazil · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Flamengo RJ (61%), Palmeiras (39%). 80 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo RJ | 30 | 64 | 7874–82 | 61% | 16 from 7 (2.29/game) |
| Palmeiras | 30 | 63 | 7773–81 | 39% | 17 from 7 (2.43/game) |
Below 1%: Fluminense, Athletico-PR, Cruzeiro, Bahia, Atletico-MG, Santos, Sao Paulo, Bragantino, Botafogo RJ, Coritiba, Vasco, Vitoria, Mirassol, Internacional, Corinthians, Gremio, Remo, Chapecoense-SC.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 71 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).