The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht under 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Spennymoor produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Spennymoor – Macclesfield2026-09-12 14:00
Home win ✓34.3%vs 24.6%▲ +9.7%King’s Lynn – Chorley2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓37.9%vs 30.9%▲ +7.0%Radcliffe – Oxford City2026-09-12 14:00
Home win ✓37.5%vs 33.6%▲ +3.9%Buxton – Chester2026-09-12 14:00
Home win ✓43.8%vs 40.2%▲ +3.7%Hereford – South Shields2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.5 ✓48.3%vs 44.6%▲ +3.6%Marine – Darlington2026-09-12 14:00
BTTS: No ✓44.2%vs 41.5%▲ +2.7%Scarborough – Merthyr Town2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓34.1%vs 32.1%▲ +2.1%Worksop – Southport2026-09-12 14:00
Away win29.3%vs 29.2%▲ +0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spennymoor– Macclesfield | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 34.3% | 24.6% | ▲ +9.7% | 4.06 | |
| 2 | King’s Lynn– Chorley | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 37.9% | 30.9% | ▲ +7.0% | 3.24 | |
| 3 | Radcliffe– Oxford City | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 37.5% | 33.6% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.98 | |
| 4 | Buxton– Chester | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 43.8% | 40.2% | ▲ +3.7% | 2.49 | |
| 5 | Hereford– South Shields | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 48.3% | 44.6% | ▲ +3.6% | 2.24 | |
| 6 | Marine– Darlington | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | BTTS: No ✓ | 44.2% | 41.5% | ▲ +2.7% | 2.41 | |
| 7 | Scarborough– Merthyr Town | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 34.1% | 32.1% | ▲ +2.1% | 3.12 | |
| 8 | Worksop– Southport | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 29.3% | 29.2% | ▲ +0.2% | 3.43 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining National League North schedule 10,000 times a day. South Shields win the 2026-2027 title in 49% of them, projecting ~86 points; Spalding United are next at 19%. At the other end, Radcliffe finish in the bottom three in 54% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: South Shields's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Shields | 18 | 86 | 75–96 | ▲49% | 88% | — |
| 2 | Spalding United | 14 | 80 | 69–90 | 19% | 68% | <1% |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 17 | 77 | 67–88 | 12% | 57% | <1% |
| 4 | Buxton | 13 | 73 | 63–83 | 5% | 34% | <1% |
| 5 | Chester | 14 | 73 | 63–83 | 5% | 34% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Southport | 8 | 52 | 42–62 | — | <1% | 40% |
| 23 | Marine | 6 | 51 | 41–61 | — | <1% | 42% |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 6 | 49 | 39–59 | <1% | <1% | 54% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 457 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/national-league-north/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="National League North live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/national-league-north">National League North stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every National League North match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 19 | 10.8 | +8.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | South Shields | 18 | 14.9 | +3.1 | |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 17 | 14.1 | +2.9 | |
| 4 | Oxford City | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | Bedford | 15 | 9.9 | +5.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Radcliffe | 6 | 9.2 | -3.2 | |
| 23 | Darlington | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 | |
| 24 | Spennymoor | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Hereford19 pts
South Shields18 pts
Macclesfield17 pts
Oxford City16 pts
Bedford15 ptsSpalding United14 pts
Chester14 ptsHebburn Town14 pts
Buxton13 pts
Merthyr Town12 pts
Chorley11 ptsHarborough11 pts
Scarborough10 ptsMorecambe10 pts
King’s Lynn10 ptsHednesford9 pts
Worksop9 ptsBrackley Town9 pts
AFC Telford8 pts
Southport8 pts
Marine6 pts
Radcliffe6 pts
Darlington6 pts
Spennymoor5 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
