Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Radcliffe – Scarborough+5.5%
Home win · data 34% vs market 28%
Fastest starters
South Shields20%
3 of their 15 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Darlington42%
5 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+6.0%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +6.0% at market prices across 121 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-5.8 ptsDarlington produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Radcliffe – Scarborough2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 33.5%Implied 28.0%▲ +5.5%- Darlington – Merthyr Town2026-10-10 14:00FT O3.5Model 48.3%Implied 43.3%▲ +5.0%
- Chester – Bedford2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 22.1%Implied 18.3%▲ +3.7%
- Chorley – AFC Telford2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 46.8%Implied 44.4%▲ +2.4%
- Brackley Town – Spennymoor2026-10-10 14:00BTTS: NoModel 47.8%Implied 46.9%▲ +0.8%
- King’s Lynn – Buxton2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 46.9%Implied 46.9%-0.1%
- Macclesfield – South Shields2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 41.4%Implied 42.6%-1.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Radcliffe– Scarborough | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 33.5% | 28.0% | ▲ +5.5% | 3.57 |
| 2 |  Darlington– Merthyr Town | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | FT O3.5 | 48.3% | 43.3% | ▲ +5.0% | 2.31 |
| 3 |  Chester– Bedford | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 22.1% | 18.3% | ▲ +3.7% | 5.45 |
| 4 |  Chorley– AFC Telford | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 46.8% | 44.4% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.25 |
| 5 |  Brackley Town– Spennymoor | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | BTTS: No | 47.8% | 46.9% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.13 |
| 6 |  King’s Lynn– Buxton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 46.9% | -0.1% | 2.13 |
| 7 |  Macclesfield– South Shields | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 41.4% | 42.6% | -1.1% | 2.35 |
Add National League North fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining National League North schedule 10,000 times a day. South Shields win the 2026-2027 title in 36% of them, projecting ~82 points; Macclesfield are next at 17%. At the other end, Radcliffe finish in the bottom three in 75% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Shields | 21 | 82 | 72–92 | 36% | 78% | <1% |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 21 | 77 | 67–88 | 17% | 57% | <1% |
| 3 | Spalding United | 17 | 76 | 66–86 | 12% | 50% | <1% |
| 4 |  Hereford | 23 | 73 | 63–83 | 7% | 37% | <1% |
| 5 | Chester | 17 | 73 | 63–83 | 7% | 34% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Darlington | 7 | 52 | 42–62 | — | <1% | 38% |
| 23 |  Southport | 9 | 49 | 40–59 | — | <1% | 51% |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 6 | 45 | 35–54 | — | — | 75% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 432 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every National League North match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +6.0%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
Home wins in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out +6.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −0.1%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −0.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −4.9%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −4.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −9.0%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −9.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −16.5%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
Away wins in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −16.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −21.1%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −21.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −23.2%
at market prices · 121 matcheschart →
Draws in National League North, 2026-2027: across 121 matches the market's prices paid out −23.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford | 23 | 13.4 | +9.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 21 | 17.7 | +3.3 | |
| 3 | South Shields | 21 | 19.9 | +1.1 | |
| 4 |  Oxford City | 20 | 14.6 | +5.4 | |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 18 | 11.5 | +6.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Darlington | 7 | 12.8 | -5.8 | |
| 23 | Spennymoor | 7 | 11.9 | -4.9 | |
| 24 | Radcliffe | 6 | 11.2 | -5.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisHereford23 ptsMacclesfield21 ptsSouth Shields21 ptsOxford City20 ptsHebburn Town18 ptsSpalding United17 ptsChester17 ptsKing’s Lynn16 ptsBuxton16 ptsBedford16 ptsMorecambe14 ptsChorley14 ptsMerthyr Town13 ptsBrackley Town13 ptsScarborough12 ptsHednesford12 pts
Marine12 ptsHarborough12 pts
Worksop12 ptsSouthport9 ptsAFC Telford9 ptsDarlington7 ptsSpennymoor7 ptsRadcliffe6 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+