National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gateshead | 42 | 94 | 78.8 | +15.2Outperforming ++ | 1 | +12.0 | +3.1 | 2:3 vs Kidderminster (+1.7) | 2:1 vs Blyth (-2.0) |
2 | Brackley Town | 42 | 87 | 72.0 | +15.0Outperforming ++ | 3 | +8.6 | +6.4 | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Blyth (-2.3) |
3 | AFC Fylde | 42 | 80 | 73.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 2 | +5.5 | +1.3 | 0:3 vs Gateshead (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.9) |
4 | Alfreton | 42 | 61 | 55.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 13 | -0.1 | +6.2 | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Blyth (-2.1) |
5 | Southport | 42 | 57 | 53.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 14 | +5.2 | -1.4 | 0:2 vs Guiseley (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Blyth (-2.2) |
6 | Bradford PA | 42 | 44 | 41.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 22 | +4.1 | -1.1 | 0:2 vs Spennymoor (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Gloucester (-1.3) |
7 | Kidderminster | 42 | 74 | 71.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 4 | +5.7 | -3.4 | 1:2 vs York City (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Farsley (-2.1) |
8 | Blyth | 42 | 43 | 41.3 | +1.7On expectation | 21 | +2.9 | -1.2 | 0:1 vs Brackley Town (+2.5) | 1:3 vs Bradford PA (-1.5) |
9 | Kettering | 42 | 61 | 59.3 | +1.7On expectation | 9 | +2.2 | -0.5 | 1:2 vs York City (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Guiseley (-2.1) |
10 | Curzon Ashton | 42 | 52 | 50.3 | +1.7On expectation | 16 | -0.2 | +1.8 | 0:2 vs Darlington (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Farsley (-1.9) |
11 | Leamington | 42 | 48 | 47.7 | +0.3On expectation | 18 | +9.2 | -8.9 | 2:0 vs Kidderminster (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.5) |
12 | York City | 42 | 66 | 65.7 | +0.3On expectation | 7 | -0.1 | +0.3 | 0:2 vs AFC Fylde (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Bradford PA (-2.0) |
13 | Chorley | 42 | 65 | 66.5 | -1.5On expectation | 6 | +5.0 | -6.5 | 0:1 vs Gateshead (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Blyth (-2.2) |
14 | Hereford | 42 | 55 | 56.7 | -1.7On expectation | 11 | +3.1 | -4.8 | 0:1 vs York City (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Alfreton (-1.8) |
15 | Spennymoor | 42 | 60 | 62.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 8 | +1.6 | -3.7 | 0:2 vs Chorley (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Bradford PA (-2.0) |
16 | Boston Utd | 42 | 63 | 66.9 | -3.9Underperforming | 5 | -1.6 | -2.3 | 0:1 vs Brackley Town (+2.0) | 2:0 vs Leamington (-1.8) |
17 | Darlington | 42 | 53 | 57.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 10 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 1:3 vs Brackley Town (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Curzon Ashton (-2.1) |
18 | Gloucester | 42 | 46 | 52.8 | -6.8Underperforming −− | 15 | -2.4 | -4.3 | 1:0 vs AFC Fylde (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Kettering (-1.6) |
19 | Farsley | 42 | 37 | 44.0 | -7.0Underperforming −− | 20 | +2.3 | -9.3 | 2:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.3) | 3:0 vs Leamington (-1.3) |
20 | Chester | 42 | 47 | 55.5 | -8.5Underperforming −− | 12 | +2.2 | -10.7 | 4:0 vs Boston Utd (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.7) |
21 | Guiseley | 42 | 35 | 46.2 | -11.2Underperforming −− | 19 | -2.1 | -9.1 | 0:2 vs Kettering (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Blyth (-1.5) |
22 | AFC Telford | 42 | 37 | 49.8 | -12.8Underperforming −− | 17 | +0.4 | -13.2 | 5:0 vs Darlington (+1.9) | 2:0 vs Blyth (-1.7) |
