National League Northhub →National League North 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
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Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hereford | 16 | 30 | 22.3 | +7.7Outperforming ++ | 11 | +0.5 | +7.2 | 1:2 vs Macclesfield (+2.0) | 0:1 vs AFC Telford (-1.8) |
2 | Bedford | 14 | 22 | 16.3 | +5.7Outperforming ++ | 24 | +3.8 | +1.9 | 2:1 vs Buxton (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Darlington (-1.3) |
3 | Oxford City | 15 | 28 | 22.7 | +5.3Outperforming ++ | 6 | -0.3 | +5.5 | 0:1 vs Spalding United (+1.9) | 1:3 vs South Shields (-1.5) |
4 | South Shields | 16 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 1 | +3.6 | +1.5 | 1:3 vs Oxford City (+1.8) | 3:2 vs Brackley Town (-1.7) |
5 | Macclesfield | 13 | 27 | 22.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 9 | +3.3 | +1.2 | 0:3 vs Bedford (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Hereford (-1.7) |
6 | King’s Lynn | 16 | 27 | 22.6 | +4.4Outperforming | 7 | +0.8 | +3.6 | 0:3 vs Hereford (+2.0) | 1:4 vs Marine (-1.9) |
7 | Hednesford | 16 | 27 | 22.8 | +4.2Outperforming | 5 | +3.5 | +0.7 | 0:1 vs Chester (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Bedford (-1.5) |
8 | Hebburn Town | 15 | 20 | 17.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 19 | +3.7 | -1.4 | 1:2 vs Buxton (+2.2) | 5:1 vs Radcliffe (-1.5) |
9 | Marine | 15 | 19 | 17.3 | +1.7On expectation | 22 | +0.3 | +1.5 | 1:4 vs King’s Lynn (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Worksop (-1.4) |
10 | Buxton | 16 | 27 | 25.6 | +1.4On expectation | 3 | +4.9 | -3.5 | 2:3 vs Oxford City (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Hebburn Town (-2.0) |
11 | Chorley | 15 | 20 | 19.1 | +0.9On expectation | 18 | +1.9 | -1.0 | 0:3 vs Radcliffe (+1.8) | 2:0 vs Spennymoor (-1.4) |
12 | Spalding United | 15 | 21 | 20.1 | +0.9On expectation | 15 | +3.2 | -2.3 | 0:2 vs Radcliffe (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Oxford City (-1.6) |
13 | Morecambe | 16 | 24 | 23.4 | +0.6On expectation | 4 | +4.4 | -3.7 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Southport (-1.7) |
14 | Chester | 15 | 26 | 25.8 | +0.2On expectation | 2 | -0.3 | +0.5 | 1:2 vs Chorley (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Merthyr Town (-1.9) |
15 | Worksop | 15 | 20 | 20.3 | -0.3On expectation | 13 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1:2 vs Darlington (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Brackley Town (-1.8) |
16 | Brackley Town | 17 | 20 | 20.3 | -0.3On expectation | 14 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0:1 vs Worksop (+2.0) | 0:2 vs King’s Lynn (-1.6) |
17 | AFC Telford | 16 | 22 | 22.4 | -0.5On expectation | 10 | -1.7 | +1.2 | 0:1 vs Hereford (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Bedford (-1.7) |
18 | Merthyr Town | 16 | 19 | 19.8 | -0.8On expectation | 17 | +0.4 | -1.2 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Marine (-1.7) |
19 | Radcliffe | 15 | 16 | 17.7 | -1.7On expectation | 20 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 2:1 vs Morecambe (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Chorley (-1.5) |
20 | Harborough | 14 | 17 | 21.2 | -4.2Underperforming | 12 | +1.9 | -6.1 | 1:0 vs Morecambe (+1.6) | 0:3 vs Hereford (-1.7) |
21 | Scarborough | 16 | 16 | 22.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 8 | -4.4 | -2.1 | 3:4 vs Hednesford (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Bedford (-1.8) |
22 | Spennymoor | 15 | 10 | 17.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 23 | -0.5 | -6.6 | 2:0 vs Chorley (+1.7) | 1:4 vs Oxford City (-1.4) |
23 | Southport | 15 | 10 | 17.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 21 | -1.6 | -6.0 | 2:1 vs Morecambe (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Radcliffe (-1.6) |
24 | Darlington | 16 | 12 | 20.1 | -8.1Underperforming −− | 16 | -4.7 | -3.5 | 0:1 vs Radcliffe (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Worksop (-1.5) |