National League Northhub →National League North 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hereford | 10 | 23 | 13.4 | +9.6Outperforming ++ | 14 | +5.7 | +3.9 | 0:3 vs Harborough (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Buxton (-0.9) |
2 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 18 | 11.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 23 | +6.7 | -0.2 | 1:2 vs Buxton (+2.2) | 5:1 vs Radcliffe (-1.5) |
3 | Oxford City | 10 | 20 | 14.6 | +5.4Outperforming ++ | 6 | +0.2 | +5.2 | 0:1 vs Spalding United (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Buxton (-1.4) |
4 | Bedford | 10 | 16 | 12.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 19 | +3.3 | +0.6 | 2:1 vs Buxton (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Darlington (-1.3) |
5 | Macclesfield | 10 | 21 | 17.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 2 | +3.7 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs Marine (+1.4) | 2:1 vs Merthyr Town (-1.6) |
6 | Spalding United | 10 | 17 | 13.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 11 | +2.2 | +1.1 | 0:2 vs Radcliffe (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Oxford City (-1.6) |
7 | King’s Lynn | 10 | 16 | 13.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 9 | -1.0 | +3.1 | 0:2 vs Brackley Town (+1.8) | 1:4 vs Marine (-1.9) |
8 | Chorley | 10 | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6On expectation | 18 | +2.9 | -1.3 | 2:1 vs Spalding United (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Chester (-1.3) |
9 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1On expectation | 20 | +0.8 | +0.3 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Marine (-1.7) |
10 | South Shields | 11 | 21 | 19.9 | +1.1On expectation | 1 | +1.2 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Hednesford (+1.5) | 3:2 vs Brackley Town (-1.7) |
11 | Marine | 10 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3On expectation | 22 | -0.9 | +1.3 | 1:4 vs King’s Lynn (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Worksop (-1.4) |
12 | Brackley Town | 11 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1On expectation | 16 | +1.0 | -0.9 | 3:2 vs South Shields (+2.0) | 0:2 vs King’s Lynn (-1.6) |
13 | Buxton | 10 | 16 | 16.2 | -0.2On expectation | 4 | +3.0 | -3.1 | 2:3 vs Oxford City (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Hebburn Town (-2.0) |
14 | Chester | 10 | 17 | 17.2 | -0.2On expectation | 3 | -0.5 | +0.3 | 1:2 vs Chorley (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Merthyr Town (-1.9) |
15 | Morecambe | 10 | 14 | 14.3 | -0.3On expectation | 7 | +2.4 | -2.7 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Southport (-1.7) |
16 | Worksop | 10 | 12 | 13.7 | -1.7On expectation | 12 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 1:2 vs Darlington (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Bedford (-1.6) |
17 | Scarborough | 10 | 12 | 13.9 | -1.9On expectation | 10 | -0.6 | -1.3 | 3:4 vs Hednesford (+1.8) | 0:1 vs AFC Telford (-1.7) |
18 | Hednesford | 10 | 12 | 14.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 8 | -0.6 | -1.6 | 2:3 vs King’s Lynn (+1.8) | 3:4 vs Scarborough (-1.5) |
19 | Harborough | 10 | 12 | 14.8 | -2.8Underperforming | 5 | +1.5 | -4.3 | 1:0 vs Morecambe (+1.6) | 0:3 vs Hereford (-1.7) |
20 | Southport | 10 | 9 | 12.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 17 | +1.2 | -4.7 | 2:1 vs Morecambe (+1.9) | 3:1 vs Hebburn Town (-1.5) |
21 | AFC Telford | 10 | 9 | 13.7 | -4.7Underperforming | 13 | -3.7 | -1.0 | 0:1 vs Scarborough (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Bedford (-1.7) |
22 | Spennymoor | 10 | 7 | 11.9 | -4.9Underperforming | 21 | -1.4 | -3.5 | 2:1 vs Merthyr Town (+1.4) | 1:4 vs Oxford City (-1.4) |
23 | Radcliffe | 10 | 6 | 11.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 24 | -0.3 | -4.9 | 2:1 vs Morecambe (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Spalding United (-1.4) |
24 | Darlington | 10 | 7 | 12.9 | -5.9Underperforming −− | 15 | -5.7 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Radcliffe (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Worksop (-1.5) |