National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tamworth | 46 | 96 | 80.9 | +15.1Outperforming ++ | 2 | +7.7 | +7.4 | 0:1 vs Scunthorpe (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Banbury (-2.1) |
2 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 75 | 62.6 | +12.4Outperforming ++ | 13 | +1.1 | +11.3 | 0:1 vs Scunthorpe (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Peterborough Sports (-1.6) |
3 | Alfreton | 46 | 80 | 69.8 | +10.2Outperforming ++ | 7 | +8.8 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Tamworth (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Scarborough (-1.7) |
4 | Brackley Town | 46 | 85 | 75.2 | +9.8Outperforming ++ | 5 | +8.5 | +1.4 | 2:0 vs Scunthorpe (+1.8) | 1:3 vs King’s Lynn (-2.0) |
5 | Chorley | 46 | 83 | 75.4 | +7.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +9.9 | -2.3 | 0:1 vs Hereford (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Warrington (-1.8) |
6 | Spennymoor | 46 | 74 | 66.9 | +7.1Outperforming ++ | 10 | +5.8 | +1.3 | 1:0 vs Scunthorpe (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.8) |
7 | Boston Utd | 46 | 75 | 68.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 8 | +4.9 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs South Shields (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Buxton (-1.7) |
8 | Hereford | 46 | 69 | 63.7 | +5.3Outperforming ++ | 12 | +3.7 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Chester (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Southport (-1.8) |
9 | Farsley | 46 | 53 | 48.3 | +4.7Outperforming | 22 | +2.6 | +2.1 | 1:2 vs Scarborough (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Banbury (-1.5) |
10 | Southport | 46 | 56 | 52.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 20 | -5.6 | +9.0 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.4) | 2:3 vs Blyth (-1.6) |
11 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 58 | 55.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 19 | -2.1 | +5.1 | 1:2 vs South Shields (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Farsley (-1.5) |
12 | Warrington | 46 | 64 | 61.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 14 | -4.6 | +6.8 | 0:1 vs Chorley (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Gloucester (-1.9) |
13 | Scunthorpe | 46 | 88 | 87.0 | +1.0On expectation | 1 | +6.1 | -5.1 | 6:0 vs Spennymoor (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Curzon Ashton (-2.0) |
14 | South Shields | 46 | 74 | 73.3 | +0.7On expectation | 6 | +4.3 | -3.5 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Blyth (-2.1) |
15 | Darlington | 46 | 56 | 57.0 | -1.0On expectation | 17 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0:4 vs South Shields (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Bishop's Stortford (-1.9) |
16 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 55 | 58.1 | -3.1Underperforming | 15 | -6.4 | +3.3 | 1:3 vs Brackley Town (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Banbury (-1.8) |
17 | Scarborough | 46 | 64 | 67.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 9 | +3.2 | -6.7 | 1:3 vs Alfreton (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Southport (-2.0) |
18 | Buxton | 46 | 62 | 65.6 | -3.6Underperforming | 11 | -4.9 | +1.3 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Farsley (-2.0) |
19 | Rushall | 46 | 54 | 57.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 16 | -2.7 | -1.1 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.2) | 1:2 vs King’s Lynn (-1.7) |
20 | Blyth | 46 | 50 | 56.1 | -6.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -4.4 | -1.7 | 1:3 vs South Shields (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Peterborough Sports (-1.7) |
21 | Chester | 46 | 69 | 75.9 | -6.9Underperforming −− | 3 | -3.3 | -3.7 | 0:1 vs South Shields (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Southport (-2.1) |
22 | Banbury | 46 | 38 | 45.8 | -7.8Underperforming −− | 23 | -8.4 | +0.6 | 1:2 vs Tamworth (+2.3) | 3:1 vs Bishop's Stortford (-1.8) |
23 | Gloucester | 46 | 36 | 49.7 | -13.7Underperforming −− | 21 | -6.9 | -6.8 | 1:2 vs Warrington (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Banbury (-1.8) |
24 | Bishop's Stortford | 46 | 21 | 38.1 | -17.1Underperforming −− | 24 | -6.5 | -10.6 | 0:2 vs Darlington (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Farsley (-1.6) |
