National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chester | 46 | 84 | 70.0 | +14.0Outperforming ++ | 6 | -2.4 | +16.4 | 0:1 vs King’s Lynn (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Peterborough Sports (-2.0) |
2 | Gloucester | 46 | 68 | 54.6 | +13.4Outperforming ++ | 19 | +8.4 | +5.0 | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Bradford PA (-1.6) |
3 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 95 | 83.4 | +11.6Outperforming ++ | 1 | +2.3 | +9.3 | 0:1 vs Chorley (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Blyth (-2.5) |
4 | Scarborough | 46 | 68 | 57.3 | +10.7Outperforming ++ | 17 | +1.4 | +9.3 | 0:2 vs AFC Fylde (+2.6) | 0:3 vs Gloucester (-1.8) |
5 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 93 | 82.9 | +10.1Outperforming ++ | 2 | +8.9 | +1.2 | 0:2 vs Alfreton (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Farsley (-2.2) |
6 | Buxton | 46 | 67 | 60.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 14 | +3.2 | +3.6 | 1:0 vs King’s Lynn (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Blyth (-1.9) |
7 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 65 | 59.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 16 | +1.6 | +4.4 | 1:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Blyth (-1.7) |
8 | Kettering | 46 | 49 | 46.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 23 | +10.9 | -8.4 | 1:0 vs King’s Lynn (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Blyth (-1.3) |
9 | Alfreton | 46 | 69 | 67.2 | +1.9On expectation | 7 | +4.5 | -2.6 | 0:1 vs Curzon Ashton (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.8) |
10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 68 | 66.8 | +1.2On expectation | 8 | +4.7 | -3.4 | 2:1 vs AFC Fylde (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Kettering (-1.8) |
11 | Bradford PA | 46 | 46 | 44.9 | +1.1On expectation | 24 | +5.9 | -4.9 | 2:3 vs Buxton (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Blyth (-1.4) |
12 | Darlington | 46 | 67 | 66.6 | +0.4On expectation | 9 | -2.7 | +3.1 | 1:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Scarborough (-1.8) |
13 | Farsley | 46 | 50 | 51.0 | -1.0On expectation | 22 | +2.9 | -3.9 | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.5) | 0:2 vs Blyth (-1.5) |
14 | Blyth | 46 | 50 | 51.8 | -1.8On expectation | 21 | -4.2 | +2.4 | 0:3 vs AFC Fylde (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Scarborough (-1.6) |
15 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 57 | 59.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 15 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0:1 vs Chester (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Kettering (-1.9) |
16 | Boston Utd | 46 | 56 | 63.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 12 | -0.9 | -6.2 | 2:3 vs Chorley (+2.1) | 3:5 vs Southport (-1.8) |
17 | Leamington | 46 | 48 | 55.2 | -7.2Underperforming −− | 18 | +2.1 | -9.3 | 1:2 vs Brackley Town (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Blyth (-1.8) |
18 | Chorley | 46 | 66 | 73.8 | -7.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -1.5 | -6.3 | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Boston Utd (-1.9) |
19 | Kidderminster | 46 | 69 | 77.0 | -8.0Underperforming −− | 4 | -14.0 | +5.9 | 0:2 vs AFC Fylde (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Farsley (-2.3) |
20 | Brackley Town | 46 | 69 | 77.1 | -8.1Underperforming −− | 3 | +3.2 | -11.3 | 2:0 vs Kidderminster (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Farsley (-2.1) |
21 | Hereford | 46 | 55 | 64.0 | -9.0Underperforming −− | 10 | -5.9 | -3.1 | 1:3 vs AFC Fylde (+2.4) | 2:0 vs Kettering (-1.8) |
22 | Banbury | 46 | 54 | 63.3 | -9.3Underperforming −− | 11 | -6.6 | -2.6 | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Kettering (-1.8) |
23 | Southport | 46 | 50 | 60.3 | -10.3Underperforming −− | 13 | -5.4 | -4.9 | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Peterborough Sports (-1.7) |
24 | AFC Telford | 46 | 32 | 53.9 | -21.9Underperforming −− | 20 | -12.8 | -9.1 | 1:2 vs Brackley Town (+2.2) | 3:0 vs Gloucester (-1.6) |
