National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brackley Town | 46 | 92 | 76.3 | +15.7Outperforming ++ | 4 | +3.9 | +11.8 | 0:1 vs Curzon Ashton (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Radcliffe (-1.8) |
2 | Buxton | 46 | 77 | 62.9 | +14.1Outperforming ++ | 13 | +6.3 | +7.8 | 2:3 vs Scunthorpe (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Radcliffe (-1.8) |
3 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 79 | 66.4 | +12.6Outperforming ++ | 10 | +2.3 | +10.3 | 4:0 vs Kidderminster (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Chester (-2.2) |
4 | Chester | 46 | 87 | 76.6 | +10.4Outperforming ++ | 3 | +7.2 | +3.2 | 0:3 vs King’s Lynn (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Buxton (-1.9) |
5 | Chorley | 46 | 79 | 72.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 5 | +11.3 | -4.5 | 1:2 vs Kidderminster (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Needham Market (-1.7) |
6 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 77 | 70.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 6 | -6.0 | +12.5 | 1:2 vs South Shields (+1.8) | 1:3 vs Farsley (-2.4) |
7 | Darlington | 46 | 69 | 63.1 | +5.9Outperforming ++ | 12 | +6.4 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Buxton (-1.6) |
8 | Hereford | 46 | 76 | 70.1 | +5.9Outperforming ++ | 8 | +2.7 | +3.2 | 1:2 vs Brackley Town (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Needham Market (-2.2) |
9 | Spennymoor | 46 | 76 | 70.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 7 | +5.2 | +0.4 | 1:3 vs Kidderminster (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Marine (-1.9) |
10 | Scunthorpe | 46 | 90 | 85.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 2 | +6.4 | -1.9 | 0:3 vs Brackley Town (+1.6) | 2:3 vs Buxton (-2.0) |
11 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 63 | 58.8 | +4.2Outperforming | 17 | +2.0 | +2.2 | 3:1 vs Alfreton (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Rushall (-1.7) |
12 | Kidderminster | 46 | 89 | 87.1 | +1.9On expectation | 1 | +1.3 | +0.6 | 0:3 vs Hereford (+1.5) | 0:1 vs Rushall (-2.5) |
13 | Leamington | 46 | 55 | 53.9 | +1.1On expectation | 20 | +9.8 | -8.7 | 1:2 vs Oxford City (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Needham Market (-1.9) |
14 | Marine | 46 | 58 | 56.9 | +1.1On expectation | 19 | +1.2 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Spennymoor (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Buxton (-1.6) |
15 | Oxford City | 46 | 53 | 57.6 | -4.6Underperforming | 18 | -4.3 | -0.3 | 0:2 vs Hereford (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Leamington (-1.7) |
16 | Scarborough | 46 | 61 | 66.5 | -5.5Underperforming −− | 9 | -1.7 | -3.9 | 1:0 vs Scunthorpe (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Southport (-1.8) |
17 | Needham Market | 46 | 39 | 45.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 23 | -6.8 | +0.4 | 0:1 vs Hereford (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Farsley (-1.4) |
18 | Farsley | 46 | 26 | 32.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 24 | -9.3 | +2.6 | 1:3 vs Curzon Ashton (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Leamington (-1.6) |
19 | Southport | 46 | 53 | 59.9 | -6.9Underperforming −− | 15 | -0.4 | -6.5 | 2:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Peterborough Sports (-1.7) |
20 | Alfreton | 46 | 59 | 66.3 | -7.3Underperforming −− | 11 | -5.3 | -1.9 | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Needham Market (-2.0) |
21 | South Shields | 46 | 54 | 61.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 14 | -0.5 | -7.1 | 2:4 vs Alfreton (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Oxford City (-1.6) |
22 | Radcliffe | 46 | 51 | 59.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 16 | -5.5 | -2.7 | 1:0 vs Scunthorpe (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Oxford City (-1.7) |
23 | Rushall | 46 | 35 | 46.4 | -11.4Underperforming −− | 21 | -3.4 | -8.1 | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.6) | 2:3 vs Farsley (-1.7) |
24 | Warrington | 46 | 31 | 45.7 | -14.7Underperforming −− | 22 | -6.1 | -8.6 | 2:1 vs Kidderminster (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Needham Market (-1.7) |
