National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 100 | 85.1 | +14.9Outperforming ++ | 2 | +9.6 | +5.3 | 1:3 vs Darlington (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Worksop (-2.1) |
2 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 70 | 56.9 | +13.2Outperforming ++ | 18 | -0.8 | +14.0 | 0:2 vs Chorley (+2.4) | 2:3 vs Spennymoor (-1.6) |
3 | South Shields | 48 | 98 | 88.5 | +9.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +8.2 | +1.4 | 2:4 vs AFC Fylde (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Darlington (-2.1) |
4 | Scarborough | 47 | 73 | 63.8 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 13 | +3.7 | +5.5 | 1:4 vs Radcliffe (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Marine (-1.8) |
5 | Kidderminster | 49 | 94 | 85.1 | +8.9Outperforming ++ | 3 | +6.7 | +2.3 | 1:2 vs South Shields (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Darlington (-2.0) |
6 | Macclesfield | 48 | 82 | 75.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +3.1 | +3.5 | 1:0 vs South Shields (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Merthyr Town (-2.0) |
7 | Buxton | 49 | 79 | 72.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 6 | -4.0 | +10.6 | 0:2 vs Macclesfield (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Southport (-2.1) |
8 | Darlington | 46 | 69 | 64.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 12 | -4.7 | +9.6 | 0:1 vs South Shields (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Oxford City (-1.8) |
9 | Oxford City | 46 | 56 | 52.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 21 | +2.6 | +1.2 | 1:0 vs AFC Fylde (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Bedford (-1.5) |
10 | Spennymoor | 47 | 68 | 64.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 11 | -4.8 | +7.9 | 0:2 vs Macclesfield (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Alfreton (-1.6) |
11 | Marine | 46 | 62 | 59.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 15 | +0.8 | +1.8 | 0:2 vs AFC Telford (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Hereford (-1.8) |
12 | Bedford | 46 | 53 | 50.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 22 | +0.8 | +1.7 | 1:2 vs Chester (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Merthyr Town (-1.5) |
13 | Chester | 48 | 76 | 73.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 5 | -2.9 | +5.1 | 0:2 vs Macclesfield (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Bedford (-2.0) |
14 | Southport | 46 | 60 | 58.5 | +1.5On expectation | 16 | -0.4 | +1.8 | 1:2 vs Buxton (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Leamington (-2.1) |
15 | Worksop | 46 | 57 | 57.3 | -0.3On expectation | 17 | +0.5 | -0.8 | 2:3 vs AFC Fylde (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Bedford (-1.9) |
16 | Alfreton | 46 | 50 | 52.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 20 | +2.6 | -4.9 | 0:1 vs Chorley (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Peterborough Sports (-1.7) |
17 | AFC Telford | 46 | 65 | 68.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 9 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 3:0 vs Spennymoor (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Leamington (-2.4) |
18 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 52 | 55.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 19 | -5.5 | +2.2 | 0:1 vs Chorley (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Merthyr Town (-1.9) |
19 | Hereford | 46 | 52 | 59.5 | -7.5Underperforming −− | 14 | -2.9 | -4.7 | 2:1 vs South Shields (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Southport (-1.7) |
20 | Radcliffe | 47 | 61 | 68.8 | -7.8Underperforming −− | 8 | -6.3 | -1.6 | 1:5 vs Kidderminster (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Merthyr Town (-1.9) |
21 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 39 | 50.5 | -11.5Underperforming −− | 23 | -5.0 | -6.5 | 0:1 vs Chorley (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Merthyr Town (-1.7) |
22 | Leamington | 47 | 29 | 40.9 | -11.9Underperforming −− | 24 | -7.2 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs AFC Telford (+2.6) | 0:2 vs South Shields (-1.3) |
23 | Chorley | 46 | 57 | 69.6 | -12.6Underperforming −− | 7 | -0.8 | -11.8 | 2:0 vs AFC Fylde (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Merthyr Town (-2.2) |
24 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 52 | 65.5 | -13.5Underperforming −− | 10 | -12.1 | -1.5 | 3:0 vs South Shields (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Bedford (-1.8) |
