National League Northhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gloucester | 18 | 35 | 26.5 | +8.5Outperforming ++ | 2 | +5.3 | +3.3 | 1:2 vs Chorley (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Farsley (-1.7) |
2 | AFC Fylde | 15 | 30 | 25.1 | +4.8Outperforming | 5 | +6.7 | -1.8 | 1:3 vs York City (+1.8) | 2:0 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.9) |
3 | Leamington | 15 | 22 | 17.2 | +4.8Outperforming | 17 | +1.2 | +3.6 | 1:2 vs Chorley (+2.1) | 0:4 vs Boston Utd (-1.1) |
4 | Kidderminster | 15 | 25 | 21.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 10 | -1.0 | +4.1 | 0:2 vs Brackley Town (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Kettering (-1.5) |
5 | Hereford | 13 | 20 | 16.9 | +3.0Outperforming | 19 | +1.7 | +1.4 | 2:1 vs AFC Fylde (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Bradford PA (-1.8) |
6 | Chester | 17 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 4 | +4.3 | -1.7 | 1:2 vs AFC Telford (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Gateshead (-1.5) |
7 | Bradford PA | 16 | 18 | 15.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 21 | -0.8 | +3.0 | 0:1 vs Darlington (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Leamington (-1.3) |
8 | Farsley | 17 | 21 | 20.4 | +0.6On expectation | 12 | +3.0 | -2.5 | 1:2 vs Gloucester (+1.9) | 3:1 vs Alfreton (-1.2) |
9 | York City | 13 | 22 | 21.9 | +0.1On expectation | 9 | +2.5 | -2.4 | 2:1 vs Chester (+1.4) | 4:2 vs Bradford PA (-1.7) |
10 | Brackley Town | 16 | 27 | 27.0 | -0.0On expectation | 1 | +1.8 | -1.8 | 1:0 vs Spennymoor (+1.5) | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (-1.7) |
11 | Boston Utd | 13 | 23 | 23.3 | -0.3On expectation | 6 | -2.2 | +1.9 | 0:4 vs Leamington (+1.4) | 0:2 vs Chorley (-1.6) |
12 | Spennymoor | 13 | 20 | 21.0 | -1.0On expectation | 11 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 1:3 vs Gateshead (+1.6) | 0:2 vs Guiseley (-1.9) |
13 | Gateshead | 14 | 21 | 22.1 | -1.1On expectation | 8 | +0.6 | -1.7 | 1:2 vs Chester (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Kidderminster (-1.6) |
14 | Chorley | 18 | 23 | 25.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 3 | -1.3 | -1.6 | 0:2 vs Boston Utd (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Leamington (-1.8) |
15 | Curzon Ashton | 17 | 17 | 20.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 13 | -1.3 | -1.9 | 2:0 vs AFC Fylde (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Blyth (-1.9) |
16 | Darlington | 11 | 13 | 16.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 20 | -4.5 | +1.2 | 1:4 vs Guiseley (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Bradford PA (-1.9) |
17 | Southport | 14 | 16 | 19.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 14 | -5.1 | +1.6 | 0:1 vs Kettering (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Farsley (-1.6) |
18 | AFC Telford | 17 | 19 | 22.6 | -3.6Underperforming | 7 | -1.5 | -2.1 | 3:0 vs Brackley Town (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Alfreton (-1.7) |
19 | Kettering | 14 | 15 | 18.9 | -3.9Underperforming | 15 | -2.3 | -1.6 | 0:2 vs Kidderminster (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Curzon Ashton (-1.7) |
20 | Blyth | 14 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9Underperforming | 22 | -2.5 | -1.4 | 0:3 vs Curzon Ashton (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Hereford (-1.1) |
21 | Guiseley | 15 | 12 | 17.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 18 | -2.6 | -2.6 | 0:2 vs Spennymoor (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Hereford (-1.6) |
22 | Alfreton | 15 | 12 | 17.7 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 16 | -1.4 | -4.3 | 0:1 vs AFC Telford (+2.0) | 2:0 vs Bradford PA (-1.5) |
