National League North title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: South Shields (34%), Macclesfield (27%), Chester (9%). 87 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields | 12 | 21 | 8171–91 | 34% | 66 from 35 (1.89/game) |
| Macclesfield | 11 | 24 | 8070–90 | 27% | 63 from 35 (1.80/game) |
| Chester | 11 | 20 | 7464–84 | 9% | 67 from 35 (1.91/game) |
| Spalding United | 11 | 17 | 7263–83 | 6% | 70 from 35 (2.00/game) |
| Oxford City | 11 | 23 | 7262–82 | 6% | 64 from 35 (1.83/game) |
| Hereford | 11 | 23 | 7262–82 | 5% | 64 from 35 (1.83/game) |
| Buxton | 12 | 17 | 6960–79 | 3% | 70 from 34 (2.06/game) |
| Chorley | 11 | 17 | 6959–79 | 2% | 70 from 35 (2.00/game) |
| Morecambe | 11 | 14 | 6859–78 | 2% | 73 from 35 (2.09/game) |
| Hednesford | 12 | 18 | 6656–76 | 1% | 69 from 34 (2.03/game) |
Below 1%: King’s Lynn, Brackley Town, Merthyr Town, Scarborough, AFC Telford, Harborough, Bedford, Marine, Worksop, Hebburn Town, Spennymoor, Radcliffe, Darlington, Southport.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 414 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).