Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Boreham Wood 78%Harrogate 11%Worthing 5%
chance of winning the league · 97 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Boreham Wood 78%Harrogate 11%Worthing 5%
chance of automatic promotion · 97 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Gateshead 94%Solihull Moors 78%Boston Utd 48%
chance of going down · 52 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
FC Halifax – Barrow+13.8%
Under 1.5 HT · data 81% vs market 68%
Fastest starters
Boston Utd24%
4 of their 17 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Barrow43%
10 of their 23 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+2.4%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +2.4% at market prices across 166 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-9.3 ptsSolihull Moors produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
34%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
FC Halifax – Barrow2026-10-27 19:45Under 1.5 HTModel 81.3%Implied 67.6%▲ +13.8%- Altrincham – Kidderminster2026-10-27 19:45Under 2.5Model 63.4%Implied 50.3%▲ +13.2%
- Solihull Moors – Kidderminster2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 58.9%Implied 49.0%▲ +9.9%
- Barrow – Eastleigh2026-10-31 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 75.6%Implied 65.8%▲ +9.8%
- Boreham Wood – Hartlepool2026-10-31 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 66.6%Implied 56.8%▲ +9.8%
- Worthing – Sutton2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 67.5%Implied 57.8%▲ +9.7%
- FC Halifax – Yeovil2026-10-31 12:30Under 1.5 HTModel 74.7%Implied 65.8%▲ +8.9%
- Sutton – Aldershot2026-10-28 19:45Away winModel 34.5%Implied 26.2%▲ +8.3%
- Aldershot – Gateshead2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 26.8%Implied 19.0%▲ +7.7%
- Worthing – Southend2026-10-27 19:45Home winModel 45.1%Implied 38.2%▲ +6.9%
- Boston Utd – Gateshead2026-10-27 19:45Away winModel 26.9%Implied 20.0%▲ +6.8%
- AFC Fylde – Hornchurch2026-10-30 19:45FT U3.5Model 68.8%Implied 62.1%▲ +6.6%
- AFC Fylde – Hartlepool2026-10-27 19:45Under 1.5 HTModel 68.3%Implied 61.7%▲ +6.6%
- Woking – Boreham Wood2026-10-27 19:45Home winModel 30.4%Implied 24.9%▲ +5.5%
- Hornchurch – Yeovil2026-10-27 19:45Under 1.5 HTModel 74.0%Implied 69.0%▲ +5.0%
- Carlisle – Harrogate2026-10-28 19:45Over 1.5 HTModel 47.7%Implied 43.7%▲ +4.0%
- Wealdstone – Southend2026-10-31 15:00FT U3.5Model 64.4%Implied 60.6%▲ +3.8%
- Forest Green – Harrogate2026-10-31 12:30Home winModel 38.1%Implied 36.5%▲ +1.7%
- Forest Green – Eastleigh2026-10-28 19:45Under 1.5 HTModel 63.4%Implied 62.1%▲ +1.3%
- Tamworth – Scunthorpe2026-10-27 19:45Away winModel 36.7%Implied 35.8%▲ +0.8%
- Altrincham – Carlisle2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 44.1%Implied 43.3%▲ +0.8%
- Boston Utd – Scunthorpe2026-10-31 17:30BTTS: NoModel 39.3%Implied 39.5%-0.2%
- Wealdstone – Solihull Moors2026-10-27 19:45Away winModel 30.5%Implied 31.4%-0.9%
- Tamworth – Woking2026-10-31 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 65.1%Implied 67.1%-2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Halifax– Barrow | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 81.3% | 67.6% | ▲ +13.8% | 1.48 |
| 2 |  Altrincham– Kidderminster | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 63.4% | 50.3% | ▲ +13.2% | 1.99 |
| 3 |  Solihull Moors–Kidderminster | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 49.0% | ▲ +9.9% | 2.04 |
| 4 | Barrow– Eastleigh | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.6% | 65.8% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.52 |
| 5 |  Boreham Wood– Hartlepool | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.6% | 56.8% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.76 |
| 6 |  Worthing– Sutton | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 67.5% | 57.8% | ▲ +9.7% | 1.73 |
| 7 | FC Halifax– Yeovil | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 74.7% | 65.8% | ▲ +8.9% | 1.52 |
| 8 | Sutton– Aldershot | 2026-10-28 | 19:45 | Away win | 34.5% | 26.2% | ▲ +8.3% | 3.82 |
| 9 | Aldershot– Gateshead | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 26.8% | 19.0% | ▲ +7.7% | 5.26 |
| 10 | Worthing– Southend | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Home win | 45.1% | 38.2% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.62 |
| 11 |  Boston Utd–Gateshead | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Away win | 26.9% | 20.0% | ▲ +6.8% | 4.99 |
| 12 |  AFC Fylde– Hornchurch | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | FT U3.5 | 68.8% | 62.1% | ▲ +6.6% | 1.61 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde–Hartlepool | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.3% | 61.7% | ▲ +6.6% | 1.62 |
| 14 |  Woking–Boreham Wood | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Home win | 30.4% | 24.9% | ▲ +5.5% | 4.02 |
| 15 | Hornchurch–Yeovil | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 74.0% | 69.0% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.45 |
| 16 |  Carlisle– Harrogate | 2026-10-28 | 19:45 | Over 1.5 HT | 47.7% | 43.7% | ▲ +4.0% | 2.29 |
| 17 |  Wealdstone–Southend | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 64.4% | 60.6% | ▲ +3.8% | 1.65 |
| 18 |  Forest Green–Harrogate | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Home win | 38.1% | 36.5% | ▲ +1.7% | 2.74 |
| 19 | Forest Green–Eastleigh | 2026-10-28 | 19:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 63.4% | 62.1% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.61 |
| 20 |  Tamworth– Scunthorpe | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Away win | 36.7% | 35.8% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.79 |
| 21 | Altrincham–Carlisle | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 43.3% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.31 |
| 22 | Boston Utd–Scunthorpe | 2026-10-31 | 17:30 | BTTS: No | 39.3% | 39.5% | -0.2% | 2.53 |
| 23 | Wealdstone–Solihull Moors | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Away win | 30.5% | 31.4% | -0.9% | 3.18 |
| 24 | Tamworth–Woking | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.1% | 67.1% | -2.0% | 1.49 |
National League predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add National League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining National League schedule 10,000 times a day. Boreham Wood win the 2026-2027 title in 78% of them, projecting ~98 points; Harrogate are next at 11%. At the other end, Gateshead finish in the bottom three in 89% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 38 | 98 | 89–107 | 78% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Harrogate | 31 | 87 | 77–96 | 11% | 82% | — |
| 3 | Worthing | 27 | 84 | 74–93 | 5% | 71% | — |
| 4 | Southend | 28 | 83 | 74–92 | 4% | 67% | — |
| 5 | Barrow | 24 | 77 | 68–87 | <1% | 32% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Boston Utd | 12 | 49 | 40–59 | — | — | 35% |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 44 | 35–53 | — | — | 67% |
| 24 | Gateshead | 4 | 38 | 29–47 | — | — | 89% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 386 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every National League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +2.4%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
Away wins in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out +2.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▲ +0.5%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out +0.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −1.1%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out −1.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −8.6%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
Home wins in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out −8.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −18.5%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out −18.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −21.6%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out −21.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −36.7%
at market prices · 166 matcheschart →
Draws in National League, 2026-2027: across 166 matches the market's prices paid out −36.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 38 | 27.3 | +10.7 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Harrogate | 31 | 23.1 | +7.9 | |
| 3 | Southend | 28 | 25.4 | +2.6 | |
| 4 | Worthing | 27 | 18.8 | +8.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | Altrincham | 27 | 17.4 | +9.6 | outperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 10 | 16.9 | -6.9 | |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 16.3 | -9.3 | underperformed expectations |
| 24 | Gateshead | 4 | 12.1 | -8.1 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisBoreham Wood38 ptsHarrogate31 ptsSouthend28 ptsWorthing27 ptsAltrincham27 ptsYeovil25 ptsBarrow24 ptsAFC Fylde23 ptsFC Halifax21 ptsHornchurch21 ptsCarlisle20 ptsKidderminster20 ptsWoking18 ptsAldershot18 ptsEastleigh18 ptsSutton18 ptsForest Green15 ptsWealdstone15 ptsHartlepool15 ptsTamworth14 ptsBoston Utd12 ptsScunthorpe10 ptsSolihull Moors7 ptsGateshead4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €295 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+