Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctThe season in numbers
HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +2.0% at market prices across 155 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Solihull Moors produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.9' on average.
Add National League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining National League schedule 10,000 times a day. Boreham Wood win the 2026-2027 title in 75% of them, projecting ~97 points; Harrogate are next at 11%. At the other end, Gateshead finish in the bottom three in 91% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 35 | 97 | 87–106 | 75% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Harrogate | 28 | 86 | 76–95 | 11% | 80% | — |
| 3 |  Southend | 27 | 84 | 74–93 | 8% | 75% | — |
| 4 | Worthing | 24 | 81 | 72–91 | 4% | 62% | — |
| 5 | Barrow | 21 | 75 | 65–85 | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 |  Wealdstone | 12 | 51 | 42–60 | — | — | 27% |
| 23 |  Solihull Moors | 7 | 45 | 36–55 | — | — | 60% |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 4 | 37 | 29–46 | — | — | 91% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 397 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every National League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 35 | 25.1 | +9.9 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Harrogate | 28 | 21.1 | +6.9 | |
| 3 | Southend | 27 | 23.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 |  Yeovil | 25 | 17.4 | +7.6 | |
| 5 | Worthing | 24 | 17.6 | +6.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 |  Scunthorpe | 10 | 15.4 | -5.4 | |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 7 | 15.5 | -8.5 | underperformed expectations |
| 24 | Gateshead | 4 | 12.0 | -8.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisBoreham Wood35 ptsHarrogate28 ptsSouthend27 ptsYeovil25 ptsWorthing24 pts
Altrincham24 ptsAFC Fylde23 ptsBarrow21 ptsHornchurch21 pts
FC Halifax20 ptsKidderminster20 pts
Aldershot18 pts
Sutton18 pts
Carlisle17 pts
Woking15 pts
Forest Green15 pts
Eastleigh15 pts
Tamworth14 ptsWealdstone12 pts
Hartlepool12 pts
Boston Utd12 ptsScunthorpe10 ptsSolihull Moors7 ptsGateshead4 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+