National League promotion race 2026/27: who will go up?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to finish in the automatic promotion places: Boreham Wood (74%), Harrogate (10%), Southend (9%). 96 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in half the simulated seasons
enough to finish in the automatic promotion places in nine seasons out of ten
Promoted chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Promoted | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 13 | 35 | 9687–106 | 74% | 61 from 33 (1.85/game) |
| Harrogate | 13 | 28 | 8576–95 | 10% | 68 from 33 (2.06/game) |
| Southend | 13 | 27 | 8474–94 | 9% | 69 from 33 (2.09/game) |
| Worthing | 13 | 24 | 8172–91 | 5% | 72 from 33 (2.18/game) |
Below 1%: Barrow, Carlisle, Forest Green, Altrincham, Yeovil, FC Halifax, AFC Fylde, Kidderminster, Hornchurch, Woking, Aldershot, Scunthorpe, Tamworth, Sutton, Eastleigh, Hartlepool, Boston Utd, Wealdstone, Solihull Moors, Gateshead.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to finish in the automatic promotion places.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 397 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).