How many points are needed to stay up in National League 2026/27?

Across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026/27 National League season (updated 18 Oct 2026), 48 final points were enough to stay up in 50% of simulated seasons, and 52 points were enough in 90% of simulated seasons.

Who will go down? (National League 2026/27)

Clubs with the lowest simulated survival probabilities in National League as of 18 Oct 2026: Gateshead (6%, currently 4 pts from 13 games); Solihull Moors (28%, currently 7 pts from 13 games); Wealdstone (60%, currently 12 pts from 13 games); Boston Utd (62%, currently 12 pts from 13 games); Eastleigh (64%, currently 15 pts from 13 games).

National League relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?

England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026

Lowest survival chances in National League: Gateshead (6%), Solihull Moors (28%), Wealdstone (60%). 52 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.

Points line — 50% of simulations

48 pts

enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons

Points line — 90% of simulations

52 pts

enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten

Survival chances, club by club

Club	P	Pts	Proj. pts	Survive	Needs (90% line)
Gateshead	13	4	3829–47	6%	48 from 33 (1.45/game)
Solihull Moors	13	7	4536–55	28%	45 from 33 (1.36/game)
Wealdstone	13	12	5142–60	60%	40 from 33 (1.21/game)
Boston Utd	13	12	5142–60	62%	40 from 33 (1.21/game)
Eastleigh	13	15	5243–61	64%	37 from 33 (1.12/game)
Hartlepool	13	12	5242–61	65%	40 from 33 (1.21/game)
Tamworth	13	14	5545–64	77%	38 from 33 (1.15/game)
Sutton	13	18	5445–64	77%	34 from 33 (1.03/game)
Scunthorpe	12	10	5747–67	86%	42 from 34 (1.24/game)
Aldershot	13	18	5748–67	88%	34 from 33 (1.03/game)
Woking	13	15	6152–71	95%	37 from 33 (1.12/game)
Hornchurch	13	21	6354–73	97%	31 from 33 (0.94/game)
Kidderminster	13	20	6455–74	98%	32 from 33 (0.97/game)

Above 99%: Boreham Wood, Harrogate, Southend, Worthing, Barrow, Carlisle, Forest Green, Altrincham, Yeovil, FC Halifax, AFC Fylde.

Points & table calculator

What does each club need?

Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to stay up.

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How these chances are made

A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 397 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 20). The points line is what the club finishing 21st ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.

The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).