National League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Boreham Wood (74%), Harrogate (10%), Southend (9%). 96 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 13 | 35 | 9687–106 | 74% | 61 from 33 (1.85/game) |
| Harrogate | 13 | 28 | 8576–95 | 10% | 68 from 33 (2.06/game) |
| Southend | 13 | 27 | 8474–94 | 9% | 69 from 33 (2.09/game) |
| Worthing | 13 | 24 | 8172–91 | 5% | 72 from 33 (2.18/game) |
Below 1%: Barrow, Carlisle, Forest Green, Altrincham, Yeovil, FC Halifax, AFC Fylde, Kidderminster, Hornchurch, Woking, Aldershot, Scunthorpe, Tamworth, Sutton, Eastleigh, Hartlepool, Boston Utd, Wealdstone, Solihull Moors, Gateshead.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 397 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).