National Leaguehub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | York City | 46 | 96 | 80.9 | +15.1Outperforming ++ | 2 | +7.3 | +7.9 | 0:2 vs Oldham (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Boston Utd (-2.2) |
2 | Barnet | 46 | 102 | 89.2 | +12.8Outperforming ++ | 1 | +10.3 | +2.6 | 0:3 vs Southend (+1.6) | 2:1 vs Braintree (-2.1) |
3 | Tamworth | 46 | 64 | 56.0 | +8.0Outperforming ++ | 17 | +6.4 | +1.5 | 1:2 vs Sutton (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Solihull Moors (-1.8) |
4 | FC Halifax | 46 | 70 | 62.6 | +7.4Outperforming ++ | 12 | -3.4 | +10.8 | 1:3 vs Gateshead (+2.0) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-2.2) |
5 | Boston Utd | 46 | 55 | 51.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 22 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 0:2 vs York City (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Maidenhead (-1.5) |
6 | Forest Green | 46 | 83 | 79.3 | +3.7Outperforming | 3 | +8.1 | -4.4 | 0:2 vs Gateshead (+1.8) | 3:0 vs AFC Fylde (-1.8) |
7 | Eastleigh | 46 | 59 | 56.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 16 | +2.9 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Solihull Moors (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
8 | Braintree | 46 | 56 | 53.4 | +2.6Outperforming | 20 | +5.6 | -3.0 | 2:1 vs Barnet (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Maidenhead (-1.8) |
9 | Woking | 46 | 58 | 55.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 18 | +6.2 | -3.8 | 1:2 vs Oldham (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Yeovil (-1.4) |
10 | Rochdale | 46 | 74 | 73.2 | +0.8On expectation | 7 | +2.5 | -1.7 | 0:1 vs Gateshead (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Boston Utd (-2.0) |
11 | Oldham | 46 | 73 | 73.4 | -0.4On expectation | 6 | -1.1 | +0.7 | 0:1 vs Rochdale (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Maidenhead (-2.1) |
12 | Maidenhead | 46 | 52 | 53.0 | -0.9On expectation | 21 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Oldham (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Eastleigh (-1.6) |
13 | Wealdstone | 46 | 53 | 54.5 | -1.5On expectation | 19 | +1.0 | -2.5 | 0:1 vs Altrincham (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Tamworth (-1.7) |
14 | Altrincham | 46 | 64 | 65.8 | -1.8On expectation | 9 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 1:2 vs York City (+2.1) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-2.3) |
15 | Aldershot | 46 | 57 | 59.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 14 | +2.0 | -4.6 | 1:3 vs Oldham (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Braintree (-1.6) |
16 | Yeovil | 46 | 56 | 58.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 15 | -5.3 | +2.4 | 0:1 vs Southend (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Solihull Moors (-1.5) |
17 | Sutton | 46 | 60 | 65.4 | -5.4Underperforming −− | 10 | -7.2 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs York City (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Boston Utd (-2.1) |
18 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 58 | 63.7 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 11 | -6.7 | +1.0 | 0:1 vs Southend (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Eastleigh (-2.0) |
19 | Southend | 46 | 68 | 73.8 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -3.7 | -2.1 | 0:1 vs Rochdale (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Solihull Moors (-2.0) |
20 | Hartlepool | 46 | 60 | 65.9 | -5.9Underperforming −− | 8 | -2.2 | -3.7 | 3:4 vs Solihull Moors (+2.0) | 2:1 vs AFC Fylde (-1.8) |
21 | Gateshead | 46 | 67 | 74.0 | -7.0Underperforming −− | 4 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 2:3 vs Forest Green (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Maidenhead (-2.1) |
22 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 40 | 47.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 23 | +0.4 | -8.0 | 1:2 vs Altrincham (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Tamworth (-1.5) |
23 | Dag & Red | 46 | 52 | 60.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 13 | -0.0 | -8.1 | 0:1 vs FC Halifax (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Woking (-1.6) |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 22 | 39.5 | -17.5Underperforming −− | 24 | -7.1 | -10.4 | 4:1 vs Sutton (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Woking (-1.4) |
