National Leaguehub →National League 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rochdale | 48 | 112 | 91.7 | +20.4Outperforming ++ | 2 | +11.4 | +10.4 | 0:2 vs Carlisle (+1.9) | 2:4 vs Morecambe (-2.4) |
2 | Carlisle | 46 | 95 | 80.9 | +14.1Outperforming ++ | 6 | +5.9 | +9.7 | 1:3 vs Forest Green (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Woking (-2.1) |
3 | York City | 46 | 108 | 95.5 | +12.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +3.2 | +9.3 | 0:3 vs Carlisle (+1.5) | 3:1 vs Gateshead (-2.3) |
4 | Scunthorpe | 47 | 82 | 72.9 | +9.1Outperforming ++ | 7 | +2.2 | +8.7 | 1:3 vs York City (+2.2) | 3:6 vs Boston Utd (-2.0) |
5 | FC Halifax | 46 | 70 | 61.0 | +9.0Outperforming ++ | 9 | +2.4 | +6.6 | 1:2 vs Rochdale (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Gateshead (-2.0) |
6 | Woking | 46 | 63 | 58.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 11 | -2.3 | +7.2 | 1:3 vs Carlisle (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
7 | Boreham Wood | 46 | 90 | 85.2 | +4.8Outperforming | 4 | +9.1 | -0.0 | 0:2 vs Southend (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Boston Utd (-2.2) |
8 | Tamworth | 46 | 62 | 57.6 | +4.4Outperforming | 13 | +4.6 | -0.2 | 1:2 vs Boreham Wood (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Boston Utd (-1.8) |
9 | Boston Utd | 46 | 59 | 55.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 18 | -4.9 | +8.8 | 1:2 vs Boreham Wood (+2.4) | 0:4 vs Morecambe (-1.7) |
10 | Hartlepool | 46 | 68 | 64.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 8 | -0.3 | +3.6 | 1:2 vs Rochdale (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Yeovil (-2.0) |
11 | Gateshead | 46 | 50 | 48.3 | +1.7On expectation | 22 | -6.2 | +7.8 | 3:1 vs York City (+2.5) | 1:3 vs Boston Utd (-1.5) |
12 | Yeovil | 46 | 51 | 50.8 | +0.2On expectation | 20 | +3.1 | -2.9 | 0:2 vs Hartlepool (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Gateshead (-1.7) |
13 | Altrincham | 46 | 57 | 57.2 | -0.2On expectation | 15 | +7.2 | -7.3 | 3:1 vs Boreham Wood (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Woking (-1.7) |
14 | Wealdstone | 45 | 56 | 56.7 | -0.7On expectation | 16 | +7.2 | -7.0 | 3:2 vs Southend (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Yeovil (-1.8) |
15 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 56 | 58.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 10 | -5.1 | +2.6 | 0:1 vs York City (+2.5) | 2:3 vs Eastleigh (-1.9) |
16 | Eastleigh | 46 | 50 | 53.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 19 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs Southend (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Braintree (-1.9) |
17 | Forest Green | 46 | 81 | 85.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 5 | +4.4 | -7.4 | 2:1 vs Boreham Wood (+1.5) | 2:3 vs Boston Utd (-2.0) |
18 | Southend | 48 | 81 | 87.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 3 | -0.1 | -6.3 | 3:2 vs Rochdale (+1.6) | 2:1 vs Eastleigh (-2.0) |
19 | Braintree | 46 | 36 | 45.5 | -9.5Underperforming −− | 24 | -3.8 | -5.7 | 1:3 vs Eastleigh (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Gateshead (-1.6) |
20 | Morecambe | 46 | 38 | 48.2 | -10.2Underperforming −− | 23 | -10.1 | -0.1 | 2:4 vs Rochdale (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Truro (-1.7) |
21 | Sutton | 46 | 47 | 57.4 | -10.4Underperforming −− | 14 | -8.2 | -2.2 | 2:1 vs Carlisle (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Truro (-2.0) |
22 | Aldershot | 46 | 46 | 58.0 | -12.1Underperforming −− | 12 | -11.6 | -0.5 | 0:3 vs Hartlepool (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Truro (-1.8) |
23 | Brackley Town | 46 | 42 | 55.9 | -13.9Underperforming −− | 17 | -4.5 | -9.4 | 1:0 vs Forest Green (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Wealdstone (-1.8) |
24 | Truro | 46 | 34 | 50.6 | -16.6Underperforming −− | 21 | -8.6 | -8.1 | 0:3 vs Sutton (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Braintree (-1.8) |