National Leaguehub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 76 | 59.0 | +17.0Outperforming ++ | 18 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 2:0 vs Chesterfield (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Aldershot (-1.8) |
2 | Bromley | 46 | 81 | 66.2 | +14.8Outperforming ++ | 8 | +8.4 | +6.4 | 4:3 vs Chesterfield (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Aldershot (-1.9) |
3 | Altrincham | 46 | 77 | 67.0 | +10.0Outperforming ++ | 7 | +7.1 | +2.8 | 0:2 vs Gateshead (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Maidenhead (-2.2) |
4 | FC Halifax | 46 | 71 | 62.3 | +8.7Outperforming ++ | 11 | -1.3 | +10.0 | 0:2 vs Gateshead (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Dorking (-1.9) |
5 | Aldershot | 46 | 69 | 61.9 | +7.2Outperforming ++ | 14 | +8.6 | -1.4 | 2:3 vs Bromley (+2.1) | 1:0 vs York City (-1.8) |
6 | Barnet | 46 | 86 | 79.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 2 | +8.7 | -2.2 | 0:2 vs FC Halifax (+1.8) | 1:4 vs Oldham (-2.0) |
7 | Eastleigh | 46 | 59 | 53.0 | +6.0Outperforming ++ | 22 | -0.3 | +6.3 | 0:1 vs Woking (+2.1) | 1:4 vs Rochdale (-1.6) |
8 | Maidenhead | 46 | 58 | 53.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 21 | +5.7 | -0.8 | 1:3 vs Altrincham (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Ebbsfleet (-1.5) |
9 | Chesterfield | 46 | 98 | 94.3 | +3.7Outperforming | 1 | +8.8 | -5.1 | 0:2 vs Barnet (+1.4) | 4:1 vs Dorking (-2.2) |
10 | Wealdstone | 46 | 56 | 55.8 | +0.2On expectation | 20 | +4.2 | -4.0 | 2:3 vs York City (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Oxford City (-2.0) |
11 | Dorking | 46 | 45 | 44.9 | +0.1On expectation | 23 | -3.9 | +4.0 | 4:1 vs Chesterfield (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Maidenhead (-1.6) |
12 | Southend | 46 | 75 | 75.0 | -0.0On expectation | 4 | +1.0 | -1.1 | 2:1 vs Chesterfield (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Gateshead (-2.2) |
13 | Rochdale | 46 | 62 | 62.2 | -0.2On expectation | 12 | -0.5 | +0.3 | 1:2 vs Southend (+2.4) | 0:1 vs FC Halifax (-1.7) |
14 | Gateshead | 46 | 75 | 77.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 3 | -2.4 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Southend (+2.4) | 0:4 vs AFC Fylde (-2.1) |
15 | Hartlepool | 46 | 60 | 63.6 | -3.6Underperforming | 10 | +1.1 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs Bromley (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Dorking (-2.0) |
16 | York City | 46 | 53 | 57.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 19 | -5.8 | +1.4 | 2:0 vs Gateshead (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Wealdstone (-2.0) |
17 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 54 | 59.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 17 | -0.1 | -5.5 | 1:4 vs Oldham (+2.2) | 0:4 vs Oxford City (-2.0) |
18 | Dag & Red | 46 | 56 | 62.0 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 13 | -6.8 | +0.7 | 1:0 vs Barnet (+1.9) | 0:1 vs FC Halifax (-1.7) |
19 | Oxford City | 46 | 33 | 39.1 | -6.2Underperforming −− | 24 | -0.3 | -5.8 | 0:4 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Dorking (-1.5) |
20 | Oldham | 46 | 63 | 69.8 | -6.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -11.3 | +4.6 | 1:4 vs Barnet (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Ebbsfleet (-2.0) |
21 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 55 | 61.8 | -6.8Underperforming −− | 15 | -4.6 | -2.2 | 0:4 vs Gateshead (+2.3) | 0:2 vs York City (-1.9) |
22 | Boreham Wood | 46 | 52 | 63.8 | -11.8Underperforming −− | 9 | -5.7 | -6.1 | 0:1 vs Woking (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Dorking (-2.0) |
23 | Woking | 46 | 55 | 67.5 | -12.5Underperforming −− | 6 | -8.4 | -4.1 | 0:1 vs Altrincham (+2.1) | 3:2 vs Oxford City (-1.9) |
24 | Kidderminster | 46 | 46 | 59.9 | -13.8Underperforming −− | 16 | -13.6 | -0.2 | 1:3 vs Chesterfield (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Eastleigh (-1.8) |
