National Leaguehub →National League 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Boreham Wood | 9 | 23 | 17.1 | +5.9Outperforming ++ | 1 | +2.1 | +3.8 | 0:3 vs Forest Green (+1.6) | 3:3 vs Tamworth (-1.0) |
2 | Kidderminster | 9 | 18 | 12.6 | +5.5Outperforming ++ | 11 | +2.7 | +2.8 | 1:3 vs Southend (+2.3) | 3:0 vs Hornchurch (-1.1) |
3 | Altrincham | 9 | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 22 | +3.4 | +1.2 | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (+2.2) | 5:1 vs Woking (-1.2) |
4 | Aldershot | 9 | 15 | 10.8 | +4.2Outperforming | 18 | +1.6 | +2.6 | 0:1 vs Boston Utd (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Hartlepool (-1.2) |
5 | Hornchurch | 9 | 15 | 10.8 | +4.2Outperforming | 19 | +3.4 | +0.8 | 1:2 vs Barrow (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Forest Green (-1.2) |
6 | Southend | 9 | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 2 | +1.3 | +2.6 | 1:0 vs Scunthorpe (+1.3) | 1:3 vs Kidderminster (-2.0) |
7 | Eastleigh | 9 | 14 | 10.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 23 | +5.2 | -1.3 | 0:1 vs Hartlepool (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Kidderminster (-1.2) |
8 | Yeovil | 9 | 15 | 11.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 14 | +2.8 | +0.8 | 1:2 vs Barrow (+1.8) | 1:4 vs AFC Fylde (-1.3) |
9 | AFC Fylde | 9 | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 6 | -1.8 | +5.3 | 1:2 vs Harrogate (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Altrincham (-2.0) |
10 | Worthing | 9 | 14 | 10.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 21 | +0.6 | +2.8 | 2:3 vs Carlisle (+2.3) | 3:2 vs Tamworth (-1.2) |
11 | Sutton | 9 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 7 | +0.8 | +2.0 | 0:3 vs Woking (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Wealdstone (-1.8) |
12 | Harrogate | 9 | 16 | 14.1 | +1.9On expectation | 5 | +1.2 | +0.8 | 0:2 vs Scunthorpe (+1.6) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-1.6) |
13 | FC Halifax | 9 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9On expectation | 16 | +3.3 | -1.4 | 0:1 vs Wealdstone (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Altrincham (-1.2) |
14 | Boston Utd | 9 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.6On expectation | 10 | -4.5 | +2.9 | 1:3 vs Forest Green (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Aldershot (-1.9) |
15 | Forest Green | 9 | 13 | 14.9 | -1.9On expectation | 4 | -3.3 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Hornchurch (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Altrincham (-1.9) |
16 | Wealdstone | 9 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 20 | -4.3 | +1.6 | 0:2 vs Sutton (+2.1) | 0:1 vs FC Halifax (-1.5) |
17 | Tamworth | 9 | 8 | 11.3 | -3.3Underperforming | 15 | +0.7 | -4.0 | 3:2 vs Worthing (+1.5) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-1.5) |
18 | Woking | 9 | 9 | 12.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 12 | +0.8 | -4.2 | 3:2 vs AFC Fylde (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Sutton (-1.6) |
19 | Barrow | 9 | 9 | 13.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 9 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 3:0 vs Sutton (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Hornchurch (-1.8) |
20 | Hartlepool | 9 | 9 | 13.1 | -4.0Underperforming | 8 | -0.5 | -3.6 | 0:1 vs Aldershot (+1.5) | 0:1 vs Eastleigh (-1.9) |
21 | Scunthorpe | 9 | 7 | 11.7 | -4.7Underperforming | 13 | -1.7 | -3.0 | 0:2 vs Sutton (+1.9) | 3:2 vs Eastleigh (-1.7) |
22 | Gateshead | 9 | 4 | 9.1 | -5.1Underperforming −− | 24 | -0.7 | -4.4 | 2:0 vs Woking (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Sutton (-1.3) |
23 | Carlisle | 9 | 10 | 15.3 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 3 | -1.2 | -4.1 | 4:2 vs Scunthorpe (+1.1) | 2:3 vs Worthing (-2.1) |
24 | Solihull Moors | 9 | 4 | 11.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 17 | -3.6 | -3.5 | 1:0 vs Barrow (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Aldershot (-1.6) |