National Leaguehub →National League 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Boreham Wood | 16 | 44 | 31.6 | +12.4Outperforming ++ | 1 | +5.2 | +7.1 | 0:3 vs Forest Green (+1.6) | 3:3 vs Tamworth (-1.0) |
2 | Altrincham | 16 | 28 | 20.3 | +7.7Outperforming ++ | 16 | +4.2 | +3.5 | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (+2.2) | 2:4 vs Carlisle (-1.2) |
3 | Harrogate | 16 | 32 | 25.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +4.3 | +2.3 | 0:2 vs Scunthorpe (+1.6) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-1.6) |
4 | Yeovil | 16 | 28 | 21.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 10 | +1.9 | +4.5 | 1:2 vs Barrow (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Altrincham (-1.6) |
5 | Worthing | 16 | 28 | 21.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 8 | +1.2 | +5.1 | 2:3 vs Carlisle (+2.3) | 0:3 vs Sutton (-1.7) |
6 | AFC Fylde | 16 | 29 | 23.5 | +5.5Outperforming ++ | 6 | +0.2 | +5.3 | 1:2 vs Harrogate (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Altrincham (-2.0) |
7 | Barrow | 16 | 28 | 23.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 7 | +2.1 | +2.4 | 2:4 vs Southend (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Hornchurch (-1.8) |
8 | FC Halifax | 16 | 24 | 21.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 12 | +3.3 | -0.8 | 0:1 vs Wealdstone (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Barrow (-1.6) |
9 | Sutton | 16 | 24 | 21.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 11 | +0.8 | +1.5 | 0:3 vs Worthing (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Wealdstone (-1.8) |
10 | Hornchurch | 16 | 21 | 19.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 21 | +5.0 | -3.0 | 1:2 vs Barrow (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Yeovil (-1.3) |
11 | Eastleigh | 16 | 19 | 17.3 | +1.7On expectation | 23 | +5.5 | -3.8 | 0:1 vs Hartlepool (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Woking (-1.3) |
12 | Aldershot | 16 | 21 | 19.6 | +1.4On expectation | 17 | +1.9 | -0.5 | 0:1 vs Boston Utd (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Wealdstone (-1.4) |
13 | Southend | 16 | 29 | 28.6 | +0.5On expectation | 2 | -0.2 | +0.7 | 1:0 vs Scunthorpe (+1.3) | 1:3 vs Kidderminster (-2.0) |
14 | Kidderminster | 16 | 21 | 20.6 | +0.4On expectation | 15 | -0.8 | +1.2 | 1:3 vs Southend (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Yeovil (-1.6) |
15 | Woking | 16 | 21 | 21.1 | -0.1On expectation | 13 | -3.0 | +2.9 | 2:5 vs Carlisle (+2.1) | 2:4 vs Solihull Moors (-1.7) |
16 | Carlisle | 16 | 26 | 27.4 | -1.4On expectation | 3 | -2.8 | +1.3 | 0:2 vs AFC Fylde (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Worthing (-2.1) |
17 | Wealdstone | 16 | 18 | 19.6 | -1.6On expectation | 18 | -3.9 | +2.4 | 0:2 vs Sutton (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Solihull Moors (-1.6) |
18 | Tamworth | 15 | 17 | 19.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 19 | +1.1 | -3.6 | 0:1 vs Hartlepool (+1.8) | 1:2 vs AFC Fylde (-1.5) |
19 | Boston Utd | 16 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7Underperforming | 9 | -4.2 | +0.5 | 1:3 vs Forest Green (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Aldershot (-1.9) |
20 | Forest Green | 15 | 19 | 24.8 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -5.6 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Hornchurch (+1.5) | 2:4 vs Hartlepool (-1.9) |
21 | Hartlepool | 16 | 15 | 20.8 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 14 | -1.8 | -4.0 | 2:4 vs Forest Green (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Eastleigh (-1.9) |
22 | Solihull Moors | 16 | 13 | 19.0 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 22 | -5.4 | -0.6 | 2:4 vs Woking (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Aldershot (-1.6) |
23 | Scunthorpe | 15 | 10 | 19.4 | -9.4Underperforming −− | 20 | -1.8 | -7.6 | 0:2 vs Sutton (+1.9) | 3:2 vs Eastleigh (-1.7) |
24 | Gateshead | 15 | 4 | 13.7 | -9.7Underperforming −− | 24 | -2.2 | -7.5 | 2:0 vs Woking (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Sutton (-1.3) |