National Leaguehub →National League 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Worthing | 1 | 3 | 0.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 23 | 0.0 | +2.3 | 2:3 vs Carlisle (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Carlisle (2.3) |
2 | Aldershot | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 21 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Boston Utd (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Boston Utd (2.1) |
3 | Sutton | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 15 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 0:3 vs Woking (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Woking (1.8) |
4 | Hartlepool | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 11 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs Barrow (+1.5) | 2:0 vs Barrow (1.5) |
5 | Eastleigh | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 12 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs Gateshead (+1.5) | 2:1 vs Gateshead (1.5) |
6 | Hornchurch | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 9 | +1.4 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs Kidderminster (+1.4) | 3:0 vs Kidderminster (1.4) |
7 | Southend | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2On expectation | 6 | 0.0 | +1.2 | 1:3 vs Altrincham (+1.2) | 1:3 vs Altrincham (1.2) |
8 | Harrogate | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1On expectation | 5 | +1.1 | 0.0 | 5:2 vs Solihull Moors (+1.1) | 5:2 vs Solihull Moors (1.1) |
9 | Forest Green | 1 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9On expectation | 2 | +0.9 | 0.0 | 3:2 vs FC Halifax (+0.9) | 3:2 vs FC Halifax (0.9) |
10 | Tamworth | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.3On expectation | 22 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 3:3 vs Boreham Wood (+0.2) | 3:3 vs Boreham Wood (0.2) |
11 | Yeovil | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 18 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1:1 vs Scunthorpe (+0.0) | 1:1 vs Scunthorpe (0.0) |
12 | Wealdstone | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 17 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 2:2 vs AFC Fylde (+-0.0) | 2:2 vs AFC Fylde (-0.0) |
13 | AFC Fylde | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7On expectation | 8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 2:2 vs Wealdstone (+-0.7) | 2:2 vs Wealdstone (-0.7) |
14 | FC Halifax | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 24 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 3:2 vs Forest Green (+-0.7) | 3:2 vs Forest Green (-0.7) |
15 | Scunthorpe | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8On expectation | 7 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs Yeovil (+-0.8) | 1:1 vs Yeovil (-0.8) |
16 | Solihull Moors | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 20 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 5:2 vs Harrogate (+-0.9) | 5:2 vs Harrogate (-0.9) |
17 | Altrincham | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 19 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs Southend (+-1.0) | 1:3 vs Southend (-1.0) |
18 | Boreham Wood | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0On expectation | 3 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 3:3 vs Tamworth (+-1.0) | 3:3 vs Tamworth (-1.0) |
19 | Kidderminster | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 16 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 3:0 vs Hornchurch (+-1.1) | 3:0 vs Hornchurch (-1.1) |
20 | Barrow | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 14 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 2:0 vs Hartlepool (+-1.2) | 2:0 vs Hartlepool (-1.2) |
21 | Gateshead | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 13 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 2:1 vs Eastleigh (+-1.2) | 2:1 vs Eastleigh (-1.2) |
22 | Woking | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6On expectation | 10 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0:3 vs Sutton (+-1.6) | 0:3 vs Sutton (-1.6) |
23 | Boston Utd | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9On expectation | 4 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs Aldershot (+-1.9) | 0:1 vs Aldershot (-1.9) |
24 | Carlisle | 1 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 1 | -2.1 | 0.0 | 2:3 vs Worthing (+-2.1) | 2:3 vs Worthing (-2.1) |