National Leaguehub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | FC Halifax | 44 | 84 | 66.0 | +18.0Outperforming ++ | 9 | +16.8 | +1.2 | 2:3 vs Woking (+1.9) | 2:0 vs King’s Lynn (-1.9) |
2 | Solihull Moors | 44 | 87 | 70.7 | +16.3Outperforming ++ | 7 | +8.7 | +7.6 | 2:3 vs Chesterfield (+1.8) | 3:4 vs Weymouth (-2.1) |
3 | Wealdstone | 44 | 53 | 44.0 | +9.0Outperforming ++ | 20 | +6.3 | +2.6 | 1:0 vs Grimsby (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Eastleigh (-1.2) |
4 | Stockport County | 44 | 94 | 87.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 1 | +1.3 | +5.3 | 2:1 vs Wrexham (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Barnet (-2.3) |
5 | Notts Co | 44 | 82 | 77.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 3 | +8.3 | -3.8 | 3:1 vs Wrexham (+1.8) | 3:1 vs Aldershot (-2.0) |
6 | Grimsby | 44 | 77 | 72.9 | +4.1Outperforming | 5 | +7.7 | -3.6 | 2:1 vs Stockport County (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Maidenhead (-2.2) |
7 | Wrexham | 44 | 88 | 84.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 2 | +6.0 | -2.1 | 0:2 vs Eastleigh (+1.5) | 2:1 vs Woking (-2.0) |
8 | Barnet | 44 | 50 | 47.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 19 | -2.1 | +5.2 | 1:2 vs Stockport County (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Wealdstone (-1.5) |
9 | Bromley | 44 | 67 | 64.7 | +2.3Outperforming | 10 | +4.2 | -1.9 | 1:2 vs Grimsby (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Maidenhead (-1.7) |
10 | Torquay | 44 | 66 | 63.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 11 | +3.2 | -1.0 | 2:1 vs Stockport County (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Altrincham (-1.8) |
11 | Maidenhead | 44 | 51 | 48.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 18 | +4.6 | -2.5 | 1:3 vs Grimsby (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Wealdstone (-1.7) |
12 | Yeovil | 44 | 59 | 57.0 | +2.0On expectation | 14 | -2.7 | +4.7 | 2:1 vs Stockport County (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Aldershot (-1.7) |
13 | Dag & Red | 44 | 73 | 71.6 | +1.4On expectation | 6 | -2.0 | +3.4 | 1:3 vs Stockport County (+2.2) | 2:3 vs Altrincham (-2.1) |
14 | Southend | 44 | 58 | 58.1 | -0.1On expectation | 13 | +2.5 | -2.7 | 1:2 vs Altrincham (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Wealdstone (-1.7) |
15 | Altrincham | 44 | 55 | 55.3 | -0.3On expectation | 15 | +2.6 | -2.9 | 2:3 vs Dag & Red (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Southend (-1.8) |
16 | Boreham Wood | 44 | 67 | 68.7 | -1.7On expectation | 8 | +3.0 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs Stockport County (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Dover (-2.5) |
17 | Chesterfield | 44 | 74 | 76.7 | -2.7Underperforming | 4 | -1.0 | -1.8 | 3:1 vs Notts Co (+1.8) | 3:2 vs Maidenhead (-2.0) |
18 | Woking | 44 | 53 | 59.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 12 | -8.6 | +2.1 | 2:1 vs Wrexham (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Eastleigh (-1.9) |
19 | Eastleigh | 44 | 46 | 53.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 16 | +0.1 | -7.7 | 1:2 vs Woking (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Dover (-1.9) |
20 | Aldershot | 44 | 43 | 51.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 17 | -12.2 | +3.9 | 3:1 vs Notts Co (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Weymouth (-1.9) |
21 | King’s Lynn | 44 | 34 | 43.3 | -9.3Underperforming −− | 21 | -8.8 | -0.5 | 2:0 vs FC Halifax (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Wealdstone (-1.6) |
22 | Weymouth | 44 | 28 | 38.9 | -10.9Underperforming −− | 22 | -6.0 | -4.9 | 3:4 vs Solihull Moors (+2.3) | 3:0 vs King’s Lynn (-1.3) |
23 | Dover | 44 | 13 | 30.5 | -17.5Underperforming −− | 23 | -11.2 | -6.3 | 1:2 vs Boreham Wood (+2.7) | 1:2 vs Weymouth (-1.2) |
