Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Ponte Preta – Atletico GO+12.6%
Under 2.5 · data 60% vs market 47%
Fastest starters
Criciuma18%
6 of their 34 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Ceara37%
13 of their 35 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Bookmaker margin
−3.0%Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, over 2.5 goals, returned −3.0% at market prices across 330 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-21.9 ptsAmerica MG produced performances worth 22 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
29%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ponte Preta – Atletico GO2026-10-17 22:30Under 2.5Model 59.7%Implied 47.2%▲ +12.6%- Sao Bernardo – Criciuma2026-10-18 19:00Home winModel 44.4%Implied 34.2%▲ +10.1%
- America MG – Operario-PR2026-10-17 21:30Under 2.5Model 59.3%Implied 53.5%▲ +5.8%
- Ceara – Juventude2026-10-17 19:30Under 2.5Model 72.0%Implied 66.2%▲ +5.8%
- Sport Recife – Fortaleza2026-10-17 23:30BTTS: NoModel 57.3%Implied 52.9%▲ +4.4%
- Vila Nova FC – Novorizontino2026-10-18 21:00BTTS: NoModel 55.8%Implied 53.8%▲ +2.0%
- Goias – Nautico2026-10-20 22:30Under 2.5Model 57.1%Implied 56.2%▲ +0.9%
- CRB – Botafogo SP2026-10-18 19:00Away winModel 20.1%Implied 19.3%▲ +0.7%
- Avai – Athletic Club2026-10-18 19:00Over 2.5Model 43.0%Implied 42.4%▲ +0.7%
- Londrina – Cuiaba2026-10-21 22:30Home winModel 38.2%Implied 38.9%-0.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ponte Preta– Atletico GO | 2026-10-17 | 22:30 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 47.2% | ▲ +12.6% | 2.12 |
| 2 |  Sao Bernardo– Criciuma | 2026-10-18 | 19:00 | Home win | 44.4% | 34.2% | ▲ +10.1% | 2.92 |
| 3 |  America MG– Operario-PR | 2026-10-17 | 21:30 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 53.5% | ▲ +5.8% | 1.87 |
| 4 |  Ceara– Juventude | 2026-10-17 | 19:30 | Under 2.5 | 72.0% | 66.2% | ▲ +5.8% | 1.51 |
| 5 |  Sport Recife– Fortaleza | 2026-10-17 | 23:30 | BTTS: No | 57.3% | 52.9% | ▲ +4.4% | 1.89 |
| 6 |  Vila Nova FC– Novorizontino | 2026-10-18 | 21:00 | BTTS: No | 55.8% | 53.8% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.86 |
| 7 |  Goias– Nautico | 2026-10-20 | 22:30 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 56.2% | ▲ +0.9% | 1.78 |
| 8 |  CRB– Botafogo SP | 2026-10-18 | 19:00 | Away win | 20.1% | 19.3% | ▲ +0.7% | 5.17 |
| 9 |  Avai– Athletic Club | 2026-10-18 | 19:00 | Over 2.5 | 43.0% | 42.4% | ▲ +0.7% | 2.36 |
| 10 |  Londrina– Cuiaba | 2026-10-21 | 22:30 | Home win | 38.2% | 38.9% | -0.7% | 2.57 |
Add Serie B fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie B schedule 10,000 times a day. Juventude win the 2026 title in 37% of them, projecting ~68 points; Novorizontino are next at 36%. At the other end, America MG finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventude | 60 | 68 | 65–72 | 37% | 97% | — |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 60 | 68 | 64–72 | 36% | 94% | — |
| 3 | Vila Nova FC | 61 | 67 | 64–71 | 21% | 88% | — |
| 4 |  Fortaleza | 57 | 64 | 61–68 | 4% | 60% | — |
| 5 | Criciuma | 56 | 63 | 60–66 | 2% | 34% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Londrina | 29 | 36 | 32–39 | — | — | 95% |
| 19 | America MG | 17 | 23 | 19–27 | — | — | >99% |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 13 | 16 | 13–19 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 50 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/brazil/serie-b/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie B live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/brazil/serie-b">Serie B stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie B match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▼ −3.0%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −3.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −4.2%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −4.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −7.2%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −7.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −9.3%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −9.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −9.7%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −9.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −9.9%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −9.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −16.5%
at market prices · 330 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie B, 2026: across 330 matches the market's prices paid out −16.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova FC | 61 | 46.0 | +15.0 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 60 | 54.6 | +5.4 | |
| 3 | Juventude | 60 | 50.9 | +9.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 57 | 52.8 | +4.2 | |
| 5 | Criciuma | 56 | 52.5 | +3.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Londrina | 29 | 37.3 | -8.3 | underperformed expectations |
| 19 | America MG | 17 | 38.9 | -21.9 | underperformed expectations |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 13 | 25.0 | -12.0 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisVila Nova FC61 ptsNovorizontino60 ptsJuventude60 ptsFortaleza57 ptsCriciuma56 ptsAtletico GO53 ptsCRB52 pts
Sport Recife51 ptsOperario-PR48 ptsGoias48 ptsCuiaba47 ptsSao Bernardo46 ptsAthletic Club43 ptsNautico42 pts
Ceara42 ptsBotafogo SP41 ptsAvai36 ptsLondrina29 ptsAmerica MG17 ptsPonte Preta13 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+