Biggest divergence
CRB – Sport Recife+9.7%
Away win · data 34% vs market 24%
Fastest starters
Criciuma21%
6 of their 28 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Nautico38%
12 of their 32 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Least bad strategy
-8.4uEven the best blind strategy (over 2.5 goals) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Most underrated by results
-17.1 ptsAmerica MG produced performances worth 17 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35.6' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
CRB – Sport Recife2026-09-16 00:00Away win ✓34.1%vs 24.3%▲ +9.7%- America MG – Sao Bernardo2026-09-15 22:30Away win ✓38.5%vs 32.6%▲ +5.9%
- Botafogo SP – Goias2026-09-15 22:30Away win ✓33.7%vs 29.6%▲ +4.1%
- Juventude – Athletic Club2026-09-13 21:00BTTS: No ✓67.3%vs 63.3%▲ +4.0%
- Atletico GO – Criciuma2026-09-13 19:00Away win ✓29.5%vs 27.0%▲ +2.5%
- Fortaleza – Ceara2026-09-13 21:30BTTS: No ✓62.0%vs 59.5%▲ +2.5%
- Avai – Vila Nova FC2026-09-15 00:30Home win ✓43.2%vs 40.8%▲ +2.4%
- Londrina – Ponte Preta2026-09-16 22:30Away win ✓12.8%vs 10.5%▲ +2.3%
- Novorizontino – Cuiaba2026-09-13 21:30Under 2.565.6%vs 63.7%▲ +1.9%
- Nautico – Operario-PR2026-09-16 22:30Under 2.558.5%vs 57.5%▲ +1.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CRB– Sport Recife | 2026-09-16 | 00:00 | Away win ✓ | 34.1% | 24.3% | ▲ +9.7% | 4.11 | |
| 2 |  America MG– Sao Bernardo | 2026-09-15 | 22:30 | Away win ✓ | 38.5% | 32.6% | ▲ +5.9% | 3.07 | |
| 3 |  Botafogo SP– Goias | 2026-09-15 | 22:30 | Away win ✓ | 33.7% | 29.6% | ▲ +4.1% | 3.38 | |
| 4 |  Juventude– Athletic Club | 2026-09-13 | 21:00 | BTTS: No ✓ | 67.3% | 63.3% | ▲ +4.0% | 1.58 | |
| 5 |  Atletico GO– Criciuma | 2026-09-13 | 19:00 | Away win ✓ | 29.5% | 27.0% | ▲ +2.5% | 3.70 | |
| 6 |  Fortaleza– Ceara | 2026-09-13 | 21:30 | BTTS: No ✓ | 62.0% | 59.5% | ▲ +2.5% | 1.68 | |
| 7 |  Avai– Vila Nova FC | 2026-09-15 | 00:30 | Home win ✓ | 43.2% | 40.8% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.45 | |
| 8 |  Londrina– Ponte Preta | 2026-09-16 | 22:30 | Away win ✓ | 12.8% | 10.5% | ▲ +2.3% | 9.49 | |
| 9 |  Novorizontino– Cuiaba | 2026-09-13 | 21:30 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 63.7% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.57 | |
| 10 |  Nautico– Operario-PR | 2026-09-16 | 22:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 57.5% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.74 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Serie B schedule 10,000 times a day. Juventude win the 2026 title in 46% of them, projecting ~69 points; Novorizontino are next at 34%. At the other end, Ponte Preta finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Vila Nova FC's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventude | 50 | 69 | 64–75 | 46% | 96% | — |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 49 | 68 | 63–73 | 34% | 93% | — |
| 3 |  Fortaleza | 47 | 65 | 60–70 | 11% | 75% | — |
| 4 | Criciuma | 47 | 64 | 59–70 | 8% | 67% | — |
| 5 | Vila Nova FC | 44 | 59 | 53–64 | ▼<1% | 18% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Londrina | 22 | 36 | 31–41 | — | — | 81% |
| 19 | America MG | 17 | 29 | 24–34 | — | — | 99% |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 10 | 17 | 13–22 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 110 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily. Schedule partially published — split/playoff rounds join the simulation once scheduled.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/brazil/serie-b/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie B live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/brazil/serie-b">Serie B stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie B match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▼ -8.4u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Serie B match in 2026: -8.4 units over 270 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -9.2u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Serie B match in 2026: -9.2 units over 270 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -15.5u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Serie B match in 2026: -15.5 units over 270 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -27.0u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Serie B match in 2026: -27.0 units over 270 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -30.2u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Serie B match in 2026: -30.2 units over 270 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -38.6u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Serie B match in 2026: -38.6 units over 270 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -42.5u
270 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Serie B match in 2026: -42.5 units over 270 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 50 | 39.6 | +10.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 49 | 42.3 | +6.8 | |
| 3 | Vila Nova FC | 47 | 36.4 | +10.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 47 | 42.3 | +4.8 | |
| 5 | Criciuma | 47 | 42.4 | +4.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Londrina | 25 | 29.5 | -4.5 | |
| 19 | America MG | 17 | 34.0 | -17.0 | underperformed expectations |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 10 | 22.6 | -12.6 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisJuventude50 ptsNovorizontino49 ptsVila Nova FC47 ptsFortaleza47 ptsCriciuma47 ptsAtletico GO43 ptsOperario-PR43 ptsCRB42 pts
Sport Recife41 ptsCuiaba39 ptsNautico37 ptsAthletic Club37 ptsGoias36 ptsSao Bernardo35 ptsBotafogo SP31 pts
Ceara31 ptsAvai29 ptsLondrina25 ptsAmerica MG17 ptsPonte Preta10 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+