Serie B 2025 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Remo	35	58	45.4	+12.7Outperforming ++	12	+5.6	+7.0	0:1 vs America MG (+2.2)	0:2 vs Ferroviaria (-1.8)
2	Criciuma	35	61	52.5	+8.5Outperforming ++	4	+4.0	+4.5	0:2 vs Coritiba (+2.1)	2:4 vs Paysandu PA (-2.1)
3	Chapecoense-SC	21	29	22.1	+6.9Outperforming ++	23	-0.0	+6.9	0:1 vs America MG (+2.2)	2:3 vs Athletico-PR (-1.3)
4	CRB	35	55	49.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	9	+8.5	-3.1	1:2 vs Goias (+2.1)	1:2 vs America MG (-1.6)
5	Novorizontino	35	60	54.7	+5.3Outperforming ++	2	+3.5	+1.8	0:1 vs Vila Nova FC (+1.9)	1:2 vs Coritiba (-1.5)
6	Coritiba	35	62	56.8	+5.2Outperforming ++	1	-0.5	+5.7	1:2 vs Novorizontino (+1.9)	2:5 vs Paysandu PA (-2.1)
7	Chapecoense	17	33	28.1	+4.9Outperforming	20	+4.9	0.0	2:1 vs SC-Cuiaba (+1.7)	0:1 vs SC-America MG (-1.8)
8	Operario	17	32	27.9	+4.1Outperforming	21	+4.1	0.0	2:1 vs PR-Ferroviaria (+1.8)	0:1 vs PR-Remo (-2.0)
9	PR-Goias	2	6	2.1	+3.9Outperforming	27	0.0	+3.9	0:1 vs Athletico (+2.1)	1:2 vs Operario (1.8)
10	Athletico-PR	21	34	30.5	+3.5Outperforming	19	-0.2	+3.7	0:1 vs CRB (+1.7)	2:1 vs Remo (-1.6)
11	SC-America MG	1	3	0.9	+2.1Outperforming	55	0.0	+2.1	0:1 vs Chapecoense (+2.1)	0:1 vs Chapecoense (2.1)
12	SC-Avai	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	48	0.0	+1.9	0:1 vs Chapecoense (+1.9)	0:1 vs Chapecoense (1.9)
13	SC-Coritiba	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	43	0.0	+1.7	1:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.7)	1:2 vs Chapecoense (1.7)
14	SC-Goias	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	41	0.0	+1.7	1:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.7)	1:2 vs Chapecoense (1.7)
15	PR-Botafogo SP	2	3	1.4	+1.6On expectation	38	0.0	+1.6	1:4 vs Athletico (+2.4)	3:0 vs Operario (-0.8)
16	PR-Remo	2	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	36	0.0	+1.4	0:1 vs Operario (+2.2)	2:1 vs Athletico (-0.8)
17	Cuiaba	35	52	50.6	+1.4On expectation	6	+5.8	-4.4	1:0 vs Criciuma (+1.9)	0:1 vs Botafogo SP (-1.9)
18	PR-Athletic Club	2	3	1.7	+1.3On expectation	34	0.0	+1.3	1:4 vs Operario (+2.0)	1:0 vs Athletico (-0.7)
19	Avai	35	51	49.9	+1.1On expectation	8	+4.1	-3.0	3:1 vs Remo (+2.0)	1:2 vs Amazonas (-2.0)
20	PR-Atletico GO	2	3	2.0	+1.0On expectation	28	0.0	+1.0	0:1 vs Athletico (+2.1)	3:0 vs Operario (-1.1)
21	PR-Coritiba	2	3	2.2	+0.8On expectation	24	0.0	+0.8	0:1 vs Athletico (+1.9)	1:0 vs Operario (-1.2)
22	PR-Paysandu PA	2	2	1.5	+0.5On expectation	37	0.0	+0.5	1:1 vs Athletico (+0.4)	0:0 vs Operario (0.1)
23	SC-Botafogo SP	1	1	0.8	+0.2On expectation	56	0.0	+0.2	1:1 vs Chapecoense (+0.2)	1:1 vs Chapecoense (0.2)
24	PR-Avai	2	2	1.8	+0.2On expectation	31	0.0	+0.2	1:1 vs Athletico (+0.3)	0:0 vs Operario (-0.1)
25	PR-Cuiaba	2	2	1.9	+0.1On expectation	29	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs Athletico (+0.2)	1:1 vs Operario (-0.1)
26	SC-Vila Nova FC	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	54	0.0	+0.1	2:2 vs Chapecoense (+0.1)	2:2 vs Chapecoense (0.1)
27	SC-Remo	1	1	1.0	-0.0On expectation	50	0.0	-0.0	1:1 vs Chapecoense (+-0.0)	1:1 vs Chapecoense (-0.0)
28	SC-Atletico GO	1	0	0.6	-0.6On expectation	57	0.0	-0.6	1:0 vs Chapecoense (+-0.5)	1:0 vs Chapecoense (-0.5)
29	PR-CRB	2	1	1.6	-0.6On expectation	35	0.0	-0.6	1:1 vs Operario (+-0.0)	2:0 vs Athletico (-0.6)
30	PR-Vila Nova FC	2	1	1.7	-0.7On expectation	33	0.0	-0.7	2:2 vs Operario (+0.0)	2:0 vs Athletico (-0.7)
31	SC-Amazonas	1	0	0.9	-0.9On expectation	53	0.0	-0.9	4:0 vs Chapecoense (+-0.9)	4:0 vs Chapecoense (-0.9)
32	SC-Paysandu PA	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	52	0.0	-1.0	2:0 vs Chapecoense (+-1.0)	2:0 vs Chapecoense (-1.0)
33	SC-Athletic Club	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	51	0.0	-1.0	1:0 vs Chapecoense (+-1.0)	1:0 vs Chapecoense (-1.0)
34	SC-CRB	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	49	0.0	-1.0	3:2 vs Chapecoense (+-1.0)	3:2 vs Chapecoense (-1.0)
35	SC-Volta Redonda	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	47	0.0	-1.1	4:2 vs Chapecoense (+-1.1)	4:2 vs Chapecoense (-1.1)
36	SC-Ferroviaria	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	46	0.0	-1.1	2:1 vs Chapecoense (+-1.1)	2:1 vs Chapecoense (-1.1)
37	PR-Ferroviaria	2	1	2.2	-1.2On expectation	26	0.0	-1.2	1:1 vs Athletico (+0.3)	2:1 vs Operario (-1.5)
38	PR-Amazonas	2	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	45	0.0	-1.2	2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.5)	2:1 vs Operario (-0.7)
39	SC-Novorizontino	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	44	0.0	-1.3	1:0 vs Chapecoense (+-1.2)	1:0 vs Chapecoense (-1.2)
40	SC-Criciuma	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	42	0.0	-1.3	2:1 vs Chapecoense (+-1.3)	2:1 vs Chapecoense (-1.3)
41	Atletico GO	35	49	50.4	-1.4On expectation	7	+5.4	-6.8	0:1 vs Remo (+1.8)	1:3 vs Ferroviaria (-1.9)
42	SC-Cuiaba	1	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	40	0.0	-1.4	2:1 vs Chapecoense (+-1.3)	2:1 vs Chapecoense (-1.3)
43	PR-Volta Redonda	2	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	39	0.0	-1.4	2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.5)	2:1 vs Operario (-0.9)
44	Botafogo SP	35	38	39.5	-1.5On expectation	17	-0.5	-1.0	2:3 vs Goias (+2.4)	0:3 vs Athletic Club (-1.6)
45	Goias	35	52	53.6	-1.6On expectation	3	-0.3	-1.2	1:2 vs Criciuma (+2.1)	2:3 vs Botafogo SP (-2.1)
46	PR-America MG	2	0	1.8	-1.8On expectation	32	0.0	-1.8	1:0 vs Athletico (+-0.5)	1:0 vs Operario (-1.2)
47	PR-Criciuma	2	0	1.8	-1.8On expectation	30	0.0	-1.8	2:1 vs Athletico (+-0.8)	1:0 vs Operario (-1.0)
48	PR-Novorizontino	2	0	2.2	-2.2Underperforming	25	0.0	-2.2	2:1 vs Athletico (+-0.9)	2:0 vs Operario (-1.3)
49	Vila Nova FC	35	45	47.3	-2.3Underperforming	10	+1.4	-3.7	0:1 vs Paysandu PA (+1.9)	0:3 vs America MG (-1.8)
50	Ferroviaria	35	39	41.7	-2.7Underperforming	14	-6.6	+3.9	1:2 vs America MG (+2.2)	1:3 vs Vila Nova FC (-1.6)
51	Athletico	17	31	34.5	-3.5Underperforming	18	-3.5	0.0	2:1 vs PR-Novorizontino (+1.2)	1:4 vs PR-Botafogo SP (-2.2)
52	Amazonas	35	36	40.3	-4.3Underperforming	16	+1.5	-5.8	1:2 vs Avai (+2.2)	1:3 vs Remo (-1.5)
53	Athletic Club	35	41	45.8	-4.8Underperforming	11	-7.1	+2.3	1:2 vs Goias (+2.2)	1:2 vs Remo (-1.7)
54	Volta Redonda	35	36	42.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	13	+0.2	-7.0	1:2 vs Paysandu PA (+2.1)	0:1 vs Botafogo SP (-1.7)
55	Operario-PR	21	16	23.1	-7.1Underperforming −−	22	-2.4	-4.7	1:2 vs Criciuma (+2.1)	1:2 vs Chapecoense-SC (-1.9)
56	America MG	35	43	50.9	-7.9Underperforming −−	5	-3.9	-4.0	0:3 vs Vila Nova FC (+2.1)	1:2 vs Ferroviaria (-2.0)
57	Paysandu PA	35	26	41.5	-15.6Underperforming −−	15	-14.5	-1.0	2:5 vs Coritiba (+2.4)	0:2 vs Chapecoense-SC (-1.9)