Serie B 2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Vila Nova FC	27	47	36.4	+10.6Outperforming ++	13	+10.4	+0.2	0:2 vs Atletico GO (+2.0)	0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.6)
2	Juventude	27	50	39.6	+10.4Outperforming ++	4	+6.8	+3.6	0:1 vs Novorizontino (+2.1)	0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.6)
3	Novorizontino	27	49	42.3	+6.8Outperforming ++	2	+2.2	+4.6	0:4 vs Goias (+1.9)	1:3 vs Londrina (-1.9)
4	Fortaleza	27	47	42.3	+4.8Outperforming	3	+5.1	-0.4	0:2 vs Criciuma (+2.0)	0:3 vs America MG (-2.0)
5	Atletico GO	27	43	38.3	+4.7Outperforming	9	+1.1	+3.5	0:1 vs Ceara (+2.0)	0:1 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.8)
6	Criciuma	27	47	42.4	+4.6Outperforming	1	+1.8	+2.8	0:1 vs Novorizontino (+1.9)	0:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.7)
7	Operario-PR	27	43	38.6	+4.4Outperforming	8	+1.0	+3.4	1:2 vs Ceara (+2.0)	1:2 vs Avai (-1.9)
8	Athletic Club	27	37	33.6	+3.4Outperforming	17	+1.7	+1.7	2:3 vs CRB (+2.1)	0:1 vs Operario-PR (-1.5)
9	CRB	27	42	39.0	+3.0Outperforming	6	-1.9	+4.9	1:2 vs America MG (+2.0)	2:3 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.9)
10	Cuiaba	27	39	36.6	+2.4Outperforming	12	-0.7	+3.1	0:2 vs Goias (+2.1)	0:1 vs Atletico GO (-1.6)
11	Sport Recife	27	41	39.2	+1.8On expectation	5	+0.2	+1.6	0:1 vs Vila Nova FC (+1.9)	1:2 vs CRB (-1.5)
12	Sao Bernardo	27	35	34.7	+0.3On expectation	15	-9.4	+9.7	2:3 vs CRB (+2.2)	1:2 vs Londrina (-2.0)
13	Nautico	27	37	38.1	-1.1On expectation	10	+1.2	-2.3	2:6 vs Operario-PR (+1.9)	0:3 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.9)
14	Goias	27	36	37.5	-1.5On expectation	11	+0.6	-2.1	0:1 vs Nautico (+2.0)	0:2 vs Cuiaba (-1.8)
15	Avai	27	29	32.4	-3.4Underperforming	18	-0.9	-2.4	1:2 vs Operario-PR (+2.2)	1:2 vs Ponte Preta (-1.9)
16	Botafogo SP	27	31	34.7	-3.7Underperforming	14	-1.6	-2.1	0:1 vs Ceara (+2.1)	1:2 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.7)
17	Londrina	27	25	29.5	-4.5Underperforming	19	-3.3	-1.2	1:2 vs Sao Bernardo (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sport Recife (-1.5)
18	Ceara	27	31	38.8	-7.8Underperforming −−	7	-3.4	-4.4	3:4 vs Sao Bernardo (+1.9)	0:1 vs Botafogo SP (-1.8)
19	Ponte Preta	27	10	22.6	-12.6Underperforming −−	20	-7.6	-5.0	1:2 vs Avai (+2.1)	1:4 vs Londrina (-1.5)
20	America MG	27	17	34.0	-17.1Underperforming −−	16	-8.6	-8.4	0:3 vs Fortaleza (+2.2)	1:2 vs Botafogo SP (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Vila Nova FC	27	47	36.4	+10.6Outperforming ++	13	+10.4	+0.2	0:2 vs Atletico GO (+2.0)	0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.6)
2	Juventude	27	50	39.6	+10.4Outperforming ++	4	+6.8	+3.6	0:1 vs Novorizontino (+2.1)	0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.6)
3	Novorizontino	27	49	42.3	+6.8Outperforming ++	2	+2.2	+4.6	0:4 vs Goias (+1.9)	1:3 vs Londrina (-1.9)
4	Fortaleza	27	47	42.3	+4.8Outperforming	3	+5.1	-0.4	0:2 vs Criciuma (+2.0)	0:3 vs America MG (-2.0)
5	Atletico GO	27	43	38.3	+4.7Outperforming	9	+1.1	+3.5	0:1 vs Ceara (+2.0)	0:1 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.8)
6	Criciuma	27	47	42.4	+4.6Outperforming	1	+1.8	+2.8	0:1 vs Novorizontino (+1.9)	0:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.7)
7	Operario-PR	27	43	38.6	+4.4Outperforming	8	+1.0	+3.4	1:2 vs Ceara (+2.0)	1:2 vs Avai (-1.9)
8	Athletic Club	27	37	33.6	+3.4Outperforming	17	+1.7	+1.7	2:3 vs CRB (+2.1)	0:1 vs Operario-PR (-1.5)
9	CRB	27	42	39.0	+3.0Outperforming	6	-1.9	+4.9	1:2 vs America MG (+2.0)	2:3 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.9)
10	Cuiaba	27	39	36.6	+2.4Outperforming	12	-0.7	+3.1	0:2 vs Goias (+2.1)	0:1 vs Atletico GO (-1.6)
11	Sport Recife	27	41	39.2	+1.8On expectation	5	+0.2	+1.6	0:1 vs Vila Nova FC (+1.9)	1:2 vs CRB (-1.5)
12	Sao Bernardo	27	35	34.7	+0.3On expectation	15	-9.4	+9.7	2:3 vs CRB (+2.2)	1:2 vs Londrina (-2.0)
13	Nautico	27	37	38.1	-1.1On expectation	10	+1.2	-2.3	2:6 vs Operario-PR (+1.9)	0:3 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.9)
14	Goias	27	36	37.5	-1.5On expectation	11	+0.6	-2.1	0:1 vs Nautico (+2.0)	0:2 vs Cuiaba (-1.8)
15	Avai	27	29	32.4	-3.4Underperforming	18	-0.9	-2.4	1:2 vs Operario-PR (+2.2)	1:2 vs Ponte Preta (-1.9)
16	Botafogo SP	27	31	34.7	-3.7Underperforming	14	-1.6	-2.1	0:1 vs Ceara (+2.1)	1:2 vs Sao Bernardo (-1.7)
17	Londrina	27	25	29.5	-4.5Underperforming	19	-3.3	-1.2	1:2 vs Sao Bernardo (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sport Recife (-1.5)
18	Ceara	27	31	38.8	-7.8Underperforming −−	7	-3.4	-4.4	3:4 vs Sao Bernardo (+1.9)	0:1 vs Botafogo SP (-1.8)
19	Ponte Preta	27	10	22.6	-12.6Underperforming −−	20	-7.6	-5.0	1:2 vs Avai (+2.1)	1:4 vs Londrina (-1.5)
20	America MG	27	17	34.0	-17.1Underperforming −−	16	-8.6	-8.4	0:3 vs Fortaleza (+2.2)	1:2 vs Botafogo SP (-1.7)