Serie B title race 2026: who will win the league?
Brazil · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Novorizontino (38%), Juventude (27%), Vila Nova FC (21%). 71 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 33 | 60 | 6864–72 | 38% | 11 from 5 (2.20/game) |
| Juventude | 34 | 61 | 6865–71 | 27% | 10 from 4 (2.50/game) |
| Vila Nova FC | 33 | 61 | 6764–71 | 21% | 10 from 5 (2.00/game) |
| Fortaleza | 34 | 60 | 6763–70 | 12% | 11 from 4 (2.75/game) |
| Criciuma | 33 | 56 | 6360–67 | 1% | 15 from 5 (3.00/game) |
Below 1%: CRB, Atletico GO, Sport Recife, Goias, Sao Bernardo, Operario-PR, Cuiaba, Athletic Club, Ceara, Nautico, Botafogo SP, Avai, Londrina, America MG, Ponte Preta.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 46 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).