Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Wolfsburg 41%Hertha Berlin 29%Nurnberg 12%
chance of winning the league · 68 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Wolfsburg 66%Hertha Berlin 52%Nurnberg 28%
chance of automatic promotion · 64 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
VfL Osnabruck 52%Braunschweig 42%Greuther Furth 24%
chance of going down · 36 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
Hannover – St. Pauli+17.3%
FT U3.5 · data 77% vs market 60%
Fastest starters
Braunschweig31%
4 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Arminia Bielefeld45%
5 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+11.3%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +11.3% at market prices across 63 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.7 ptsHolstein Kiel produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
49%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Hannover – St. Pauli2026-10-17 18:30FT U3.5Model 76.8%Implied 59.5%▲ +17.3%- Holstein Kiel – Hertha Berlin2026-10-16 16:30FT U3.5Model 68.4%Implied 57.8%▲ +10.6%
- Kaiserslautern – Bochum2026-10-17 11:00Under 2.5Model 56.2%Implied 47.4%▲ +8.8%
- SG Dynamo Dresden – Magdeburg2026-10-18 11:30Over 1.5 HTModel 54.6%Implied 45.9%▲ +8.8%
- Greuther Furth – Braunschweig2026-10-17 11:00FT U3.5Model 65.0%Implied 63.7%▲ +1.3%
- Karlsruher SC – Darmstadt2026-10-18 11:30Away winModel 35.2%Implied 35.5%-0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hannover– St. Pauli | 2026-10-17 | 18:30 | FT U3.5 | 76.8% | 59.5% | ▲ +17.3% | 1.68 |
| 2 |  Holstein Kiel– Hertha Berlin | 2026-10-16 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 68.4% | 57.8% | ▲ +10.6% | 1.73 |
| 3 |  Kaiserslautern– Bochum | 2026-10-17 | 11:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 47.4% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.11 |
| 4 |  SG Dynamo Dresden– Magdeburg | 2026-10-18 | 11:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 54.6% | 45.9% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.18 |
| 5 |  Greuther Furth– Braunschweig | 2026-10-17 | 11:00 | FT U3.5 | 65.0% | 63.7% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.57 |
| 6 |  Karlsruher SC– Darmstadt | 2026-10-18 | 11:30 | Away win | 35.2% | 35.5% | -0.3% | 2.82 |
Add 2. Bundesliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining 2. Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Wolfsburg win the 2026-2027 title in 41% of them, projecting ~63 points; Hertha Berlin are next at 29%. At the other end, VfL Osnabruck finish in the bottom three in 67% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolfsburg | 12 | 63 | 54–72 | 41% | 88% | — |
| 2 | Hertha Berlin | 21 | 61 | 53–70 | 29% | 80% | <1% |
| 3 |  Nurnberg | 17 | 57 | 48–66 | 12% | 59% | <1% |
| 4 | St. Pauli | 10 | 55 | 46–63 | 6% | 45% | <1% |
| 5 | Heidenheim | 14 | 54 | 45–63 | 6% | 41% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Greuther Furth | 6 | 38 | 30–47 | — | <1% | 36% |
| 17 | Braunschweig | 7 | 35 | 27–43 | <1% | <1% | 56% |
| 18 | VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 34 | 26–42 | — | <1% | 67% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 2. Bundesliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +11.3%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Draws in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out +11.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▲ +7.3%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out +7.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −6.4%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −6.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −7.6%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −7.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −9.5%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Home wins in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −9.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −15.3%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Away wins in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −15.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −18.5%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −18.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 21 | 10.7 | +10.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 17 | 10.0 | +7.0 | |
| 3 | Heidenheim | 14 | 10.8 | +3.3 | |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | |
| 5 | Wolfsburg | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | SG Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+