The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Darmstadt produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Bochum – Greuther Furth2026-09-12 11:00Under 2.5 ✓47.2%vs 43.7%▲ +3.5%- Braunschweig – SG Dynamo Dresden2026-09-12 11:00Over 1.5 HT ✓46.5%vs 43.7%▲ +2.8%
- Greuther Furth – Magdeburg2026-09-18 16:30BTTS: No33.3%vs 32.7%▲ +0.6%
- Magdeburg – Kaiserslautern2026-09-12 11:00Away win34.4%vs 34.2%▲ +0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bochum– Greuther Furth | 2026-09-12 | 11:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 47.2% | 43.7% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.29 | |
| 2 |  Braunschweig– SG Dynamo Dresden | 2026-09-12 | 11:00 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 46.5% | 43.7% | ▲ +2.8% | 2.29 | |
| 3 | Greuther Furth– Magdeburg | 2026-09-18 | 16:30 | BTTS: No | 33.3% | 32.7% | ▲ +0.6% | 3.06 | |
| 4 | Magdeburg– Kaiserslautern | 2026-09-12 | 11:00 | Away win | 34.4% | 34.2% | ▲ +0.2% | 2.92 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining 2. Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Cottbus win the 2026-2027 title in 35% of them, projecting ~55 points; Heidenheim are next at 19%. At the other end, VfL Osnabruck finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cottbus | 3 | 55 | 46–64 | 35% | 75% | <1% |
| 2 | Heidenheim | 3 | 52 | 43–62 | 19% | 60% | <1% |
| 3 | St. Pauli | 1 | 50 | 41–59 | 13% | 50% | 1% |
| 4 |  Hannover | 0 | 47 | 38–57 | 7% | 34% | 3% |
| 5 |  Hertha Berlin | 3 | 46 | 37–55 | 5% | 27% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Greuther Furth | 1 | 37 | 28–46 | <1% | 3% | 34% |
| 17 | Braunschweig | 3 | 37 | 28–46 | <1% | 3% | 34% |
| 18 | VfL Osnabruck | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 264 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/germany/2-bundesliga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="2. Bundesliga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/germany/2-bundesliga">2. Bundesliga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every 2. Bundesliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 12 | 5.7 | +6.3 | |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 | |
| 3 | Heidenheim | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | |
| 4 |  Wolfsburg | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | |
| 5 | Kaiserslautern | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 |  Holstein Kiel | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | |
| 17 | SG Dynamo Dresden | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | |
| 18 |  Darmstadt | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+