Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctTitle raceevery club & what-if →
Wolfsburg 50%Hertha Berlin 32%Kaiserslautern 5%
chance of winning the league · 68 pts won it in 90% of runs
Promotion raceevery club & what-if →
Wolfsburg 76%Hertha Berlin 61%Kaiserslautern 17%
chance of automatic promotion · 63 pts went up in 90% of runs
Relegation battleevery club & what-if →
Braunschweig 38%VfL Osnabruck 31%Greuther Furth 30%
chance of going down · 37 pts kept a club up in 90% of runs
Biggest divergence
St. Pauli – Nurnberg+7.1%
Under 2.5 · data 52% vs market 45%
Fastest starters
Karlsruher SC36%
4 of their 11 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Arminia Bielefeld38%
5 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+14.8%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +14.8% at market prices across 81 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.0 ptsHannover produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
43%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
St. Pauli – Nurnberg2026-11-01 12:30Under 2.5Model 51.9%Implied 44.8%▲ +7.1%- Darmstadt – Magdeburg2026-10-31 12:00Home winModel 42.7%Implied 36.0%▲ +6.7%
- Kaiserslautern – Hertha Berlin2026-10-31 12:00Home winModel 42.6%Implied 36.5%▲ +6.2%
- Greuther Furth – Holstein Kiel2026-11-01 12:30FT U3.5Model 68.7%Implied 62.9%▲ +5.8%
- Karlsruher SC – Heidenheim2026-10-31 19:30Home winModel 40.4%Implied 35.1%▲ +5.3%
- Hannover – SG Dynamo Dresden2026-11-01 12:30FT U3.5Model 65.1%Implied 61.7%▲ +3.4%
- Arminia Bielefeld – Braunschweig2026-10-30 17:30FT U3.5Model 65.0%Implied 64.9%▲ +0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Pauli– Nurnberg | 2026-11-01 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 44.8% | ▲ +7.1% | 2.23 |
| 2 |  Darmstadt– Magdeburg | 2026-10-31 | 12:00 | Home win | 42.7% | 36.0% | ▲ +6.7% | 2.78 |
| 3 |  Kaiserslautern– Hertha Berlin | 2026-10-31 | 12:00 | Home win | 42.6% | 36.5% | ▲ +6.2% | 2.74 |
| 4 |  Greuther Furth– Holstein Kiel | 2026-11-01 | 12:30 | FT U3.5 | 68.7% | 62.9% | ▲ +5.8% | 1.59 |
| 5 |  Karlsruher SC– Heidenheim | 2026-10-31 | 19:30 | Home win | 40.4% | 35.1% | ▲ +5.3% | 2.85 |
| 6 |  Hannover– SG Dynamo Dresden | 2026-11-01 | 12:30 | FT U3.5 | 65.1% | 61.7% | ▲ +3.4% | 1.62 |
| 7 |  Arminia Bielefeld– Braunschweig | 2026-10-30 | 17:30 | FT U3.5 | 65.0% | 64.9% | ▲ +0.1% | 1.54 |
2. Bundesliga predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add 2. Bundesliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining 2. Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Wolfsburg win the 2026-2027 title in 50% of them, projecting ~65 points; Hertha Berlin are next at 32%. At the other end, Braunschweig finish in the bottom three in 52% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolfsburg | 16 | 65 | 56–73 | 50% | 93% | — |
| 2 | Hertha Berlin | 25 | 63 | 54–71 | 32% | 87% | — |
| 3 | Kaiserslautern | 18 | 55 | 47–63 | 5% | 48% | <1% |
| 4 | Nurnberg | 18 | 54 | 46–63 | 5% | 46% | <1% |
| 5 | St. Pauli | 12 | 54 | 46–62 | 4% | 42% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Greuther Furth | 9 | 38 | 30–46 | <1% | <1% | 42% |
| 17 | VfL Osnabruck | 11 | 37 | 30–45 | <1% | <1% | 45% |
| 18 | Braunschweig | 10 | 36 | 28–44 | — | <1% | 52% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 225 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 2. Bundesliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +14.8%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
Draws in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out +14.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +8.6%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out +8.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −1.3%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
Home wins in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out −1.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −6.5%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out −6.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −9.0%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out −9.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −16.3%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out −16.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −30.4%
at market prices · 81 matcheschart →
Away wins in 2. Bundesliga, 2026-2027: across 81 matches the market's prices paid out −30.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 25 | 14.1 | +10.9 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 18 | 13.3 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | Kaiserslautern | 18 | 11.5 | +6.5 | |
| 4 | Wolfsburg | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 | |
| 5 | Magdeburg | 16 | 13.4 | +2.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Hannover | 8 | 14.0 | -6.0 | |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | |
| 18 | Darmstadt | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisHertha Berlin25 ptsNurnberg18 ptsKaiserslautern18 ptsWolfsburg16 ptsMagdeburg16 ptsHeidenheim15 ptsSt. Pauli12 ptsVfL Osnabruck11 ptsArminia Bielefeld11 ptsBraunschweig10 ptsCottbus10 ptsGreuther Furth9 ptsHolstein Kiel8 pts
Bochum8 ptsSG Dynamo Dresden8 ptsHannover8 ptsKarlsruher SC8 ptsDarmstadt8 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+