2. Bundesliga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Wolfsburg (61%), Hertha Berlin (20%), Nurnberg (8%). 68 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg | 8 | 15 | 6658–74 | 61% | 53 from 26 (2.04/game) |
| Hertha Berlin | 8 | 22 | 6152–69 | 20% | 46 from 26 (1.77/game) |
| Nurnberg | 8 | 18 | 5748–65 | 8% | 50 from 26 (1.92/game) |
| St. Pauli | 8 | 11 | 5446–63 | 4% | 57 from 26 (2.19/game) |
| Heidenheim | 8 | 14 | 5344–61 | 3% | 54 from 26 (2.08/game) |
| Kaiserslautern | 8 | 15 | 5344–61 | 2% | 53 from 26 (2.04/game) |
| Magdeburg | 7 | 13 | 5142–59 | 1% | 55 from 27 (2.04/game) |
Below 1%: Hannover, Cottbus, Arminia Bielefeld, Darmstadt, Greuther Furth, SG Dynamo Dresden, Karlsruher SC, Bochum, Holstein Kiel, VfL Osnabruck, Braunschweig.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 237 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).