2. Bundesliga relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?
Germany · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Lowest survival chances in 2. Bundesliga: Braunschweig (49%), VfL Osnabruck (49%), Karlsruher SC (82%). 36 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons
enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten
Survival chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Survive | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig | 8 | 7 | 3325–41 | 49% | 29 from 26 (1.12/game) |
| VfL Osnabruck | 7 | 8 | 3326–42 | 49% | 28 from 27 (1.04/game) |
| Karlsruher SC | 7 | 5 | 3931–48 | 82% | 31 from 27 (1.15/game) |
| SG Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 5 | 3931–48 | 83% | 31 from 27 (1.15/game) |
| Holstein Kiel | 8 | 5 | 3931–47 | 83% | 31 from 26 (1.19/game) |
| Greuther Furth | 8 | 9 | 4031–48 | 84% | 27 from 26 (1.04/game) |
| Bochum | 8 | 7 | 3931–48 | 84% | 29 from 26 (1.12/game) |
| Darmstadt | 7 | 7 | 4536–53 | 95% | 29 from 27 (1.07/game) |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 8 | 4537–54 | 96% | 28 from 27 (1.04/game) |
| Cottbus | 8 | 9 | 4738–55 | 97% | 27 from 26 (1.04/game) |
| Hannover | 8 | 8 | 4739–56 | 98% | 28 from 26 (1.08/game) |
Above 99%: Wolfsburg, Hertha Berlin, Nurnberg, St. Pauli, Heidenheim, Kaiserslautern, Magdeburg.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to stay up.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 237 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 16). The points line is what the club finishing 17th ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).