2. Bundesliga 2022-2023 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Heidenheim	34	67	50.9	+16.1Outperforming ++	6	+11.4	+4.8	0:3 vs Nurnberg (+2.0)	0:1 vs St. Pauli (-1.5)
2	Darmstadt	34	67	56.5	+10.5Outperforming ++	2	+6.9	+3.6	1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+1.8)	2:1 vs Hannover (-1.7)
3	St. Pauli	34	58	52.0	+6.0Outperforming ++	5	+5.3	+0.8	0:3 vs Darmstadt (+2.0)	1:2 vs Braunschweig (-2.0)
4	Dusseldorf	34	58	52.2	+5.8Outperforming ++	4	+7.5	-1.7	0:2 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.8)	0:1 vs Nurnberg (-1.8)
5	Hamburger SV	34	66	60.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	1	+2.8	+2.6	2:3 vs Paderborn (+1.8)	0:1 vs Hansa Rostock (-2.0)
6	Magdeburg	34	43	41.4	+1.6On expectation	14	-2.1	+3.7	2:3 vs Hamburger SV (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sandhausen (-2.1)
7	Holstein Kiel	34	46	45.3	+0.7On expectation	10	-3.5	+4.2	1:2 vs Magdeburg (+1.9)	2:3 vs Magdeburg (-1.8)
8	Hannover	34	44	43.6	+0.4On expectation	12	+1.9	-1.5	1:3 vs Arminia Bielefeld (+2.1)	1:2 vs Magdeburg (-1.6)
9	Hansa Rostock	34	41	40.7	+0.3On expectation	15	-4.0	+4.2	0:1 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3)	0:1 vs Sandhausen (-1.7)
10	Paderborn	34	55	55.3	-0.3On expectation	3	+5.5	-5.8	0:1 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.6)	0:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-2.1)
11	Kaiserslautern	34	45	45.6	-0.6On expectation	9	-1.6	+1.0	1:2 vs Dusseldorf (+2.0)	0:3 vs Regensburg (-1.8)
12	Karlsruher SC	34	46	47.0	-0.9On expectation	8	+3.9	-4.9	0:6 vs Regensburg (+1.8)	0:2 vs Dusseldorf (-1.6)
13	Braunschweig	34	36	39.9	-3.9Underperforming	16	+1.8	-5.7	1:2 vs St. Pauli (+2.2)	1:2 vs Regensburg (-1.6)
14	Nurnberg	34	39	44.1	-5.1Underperforming −−	11	+0.1	-5.2	0:1 vs Dusseldorf (+2.1)	0:3 vs Heidenheim (-1.7)
15	Sandhausen	34	28	34.3	-6.3Underperforming −−	18	-3.2	-3.1	1:2 vs Magdeburg (+2.3)	1:2 vs Nurnberg (-1.4)
16	Greuther Furth	34	41	47.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	7	+4.6	-11.4	2:1 vs Paderborn (+1.9)	1:3 vs Kaiserslautern (-1.5)
17	Regensburg	34	31	38.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	17	-2.8	-4.1	0:3 vs Kaiserslautern (+2.1)	0:6 vs Karlsruher SC (-1.5)
18	Arminia Bielefeld	34	34	42.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	13	-5.1	-3.8	0:2 vs Paderborn (+2.3)	1:3 vs Hannover (-1.8)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Heidenheim	34	67	50.9	+16.1Outperforming ++	6	+11.4	+4.8	0:3 vs Nurnberg (+2.0)	0:1 vs St. Pauli (-1.5)
2	Darmstadt	34	67	56.5	+10.5Outperforming ++	2	+6.9	+3.6	1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+1.8)	2:1 vs Hannover (-1.7)
3	St. Pauli	34	58	52.0	+6.0Outperforming ++	5	+5.3	+0.8	0:3 vs Darmstadt (+2.0)	1:2 vs Braunschweig (-2.0)
4	Dusseldorf	34	58	52.2	+5.8Outperforming ++	4	+7.5	-1.7	0:2 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.8)	0:1 vs Nurnberg (-1.8)
5	Hamburger SV	34	66	60.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	1	+2.8	+2.6	2:3 vs Paderborn (+1.8)	0:1 vs Hansa Rostock (-2.0)
6	Magdeburg	34	43	41.4	+1.6On expectation	14	-2.1	+3.7	2:3 vs Hamburger SV (+2.2)	1:2 vs Sandhausen (-2.1)
7	Holstein Kiel	34	46	45.3	+0.7On expectation	10	-3.5	+4.2	1:2 vs Magdeburg (+1.9)	2:3 vs Magdeburg (-1.8)
8	Hannover	34	44	43.6	+0.4On expectation	12	+1.9	-1.5	1:3 vs Arminia Bielefeld (+2.1)	1:2 vs Magdeburg (-1.6)
9	Hansa Rostock	34	41	40.7	+0.3On expectation	15	-4.0	+4.2	0:1 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3)	0:1 vs Sandhausen (-1.7)
10	Paderborn	34	55	55.3	-0.3On expectation	3	+5.5	-5.8	0:1 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.6)	0:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (-2.1)
11	Kaiserslautern	34	45	45.6	-0.6On expectation	9	-1.6	+1.0	1:2 vs Dusseldorf (+2.0)	0:3 vs Regensburg (-1.8)
12	Karlsruher SC	34	46	47.0	-0.9On expectation	8	+3.9	-4.9	0:6 vs Regensburg (+1.8)	0:2 vs Dusseldorf (-1.6)
13	Braunschweig	34	36	39.9	-3.9Underperforming	16	+1.8	-5.7	1:2 vs St. Pauli (+2.2)	1:2 vs Regensburg (-1.6)
14	Nurnberg	34	39	44.1	-5.1Underperforming −−	11	+0.1	-5.2	0:1 vs Dusseldorf (+2.1)	0:3 vs Heidenheim (-1.7)
15	Sandhausen	34	28	34.3	-6.3Underperforming −−	18	-3.2	-3.1	1:2 vs Magdeburg (+2.3)	1:2 vs Nurnberg (-1.4)
16	Greuther Furth	34	41	47.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	7	+4.6	-11.4	2:1 vs Paderborn (+1.9)	1:3 vs Kaiserslautern (-1.5)
17	Regensburg	34	31	38.0	-7.0Underperforming −−	17	-2.8	-4.1	0:3 vs Kaiserslautern (+2.1)	0:6 vs Karlsruher SC (-1.5)
18	Arminia Bielefeld	34	34	42.8	-8.8Underperforming −−	13	-5.1	-3.8	0:2 vs Paderborn (+2.3)	1:3 vs Hannover (-1.8)