2. Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Schalke | 34 | 70 | 52.3 | +17.7Outperforming ++ | 4 | +12.9 | +4.8 | 0:3 vs Hannover (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Holstein Kiel (-1.6) |
2 | Kaiserslautern | 34 | 52 | 43.5 | +8.5Outperforming ++ | 13 | +9.6 | -1.2 | 0:1 vs Magdeburg (+2.3) | 2:0 vs Braunschweig (-1.6) |
3 | Elversberg | 34 | 62 | 55.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 3 | +6.5 | +0.1 | 0:2 vs Hertha Berlin (+1.9) | 2:0 vs Greuther Furth (-1.9) |
4 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 44 | 39.0 | +5.0Outperforming ++ | 16 | +7.4 | -2.4 | 1:3 vs Magdeburg (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Kaiserslautern (-1.4) |
5 | Paderborn | 35 | 63 | 58.0 | +5.0Outperforming | 1 | +2.9 | +3.2 | 0:2 vs Hertha Berlin (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Dusseldorf (-1.9) |
6 | Hannover | 34 | 60 | 57.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 2 | -4.7 | +7.5 | 0:2 vs Paderborn (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Greuther Furth (-2.3) |
7 | Greuther Furth | 36 | 40 | 37.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 17 | +4.6 | -2.4 | 1:2 vs Hannover (+2.5) | 0:3 vs Kaiserslautern (-1.5) |
8 | Darmstadt | 34 | 52 | 50.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 6 | +7.0 | -5.0 | 2:3 vs Hannover (+1.9) | 3:2 vs Greuther Furth (-1.6) |
9 | RW Essen | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6On expectation | 20 | +1.6 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Greuther Furth (+1.6) | 2:0 vs Greuther Furth (-0.9) |
10 | Nurnberg | 34 | 46 | 45.4 | +0.6On expectation | 11 | +5.1 | -4.6 | 2:1 vs Hannover (+1.9) | 0:2 vs SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.7) |
11 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 51 | 50.5 | +0.5On expectation | 5 | -5.7 | +6.2 | 0:3 vs Hannover (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Magdeburg (-1.9) |
12 | Braunschweig | 34 | 37 | 37.7 | -0.7On expectation | 18 | +1.6 | -2.3 | 0:1 vs Magdeburg (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Preussen Munster (-1.4) |
13 | SG Dynamo Dresden | 34 | 41 | 43.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 14 | -1.2 | -0.9 | 1:2 vs Magdeburg (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Schalke (-1.6) |
14 | Wolfsburg | 1 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 19 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs Paderborn (+-1.0) | 0:0 vs Paderborn (-1.0) |
15 | Bochum | 34 | 44 | 47.1 | -3.1Underperforming | 9 | +2.1 | -5.2 | 3:2 vs Hertha Berlin (+1.6) | 2:3 vs Holstein Kiel (-1.8) |
16 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 41 | 45.5 | -4.5Underperforming | 10 | -3.6 | -0.9 | 2:3 vs Bochum (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Greuther Furth (-2.0) |
17 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 37 | 44.2 | -7.2Underperforming −− | 12 | -1.1 | -6.1 | 1:2 vs Paderborn (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Braunschweig (-1.8) |
18 | Preussen Munster | 34 | 30 | 39.7 | -9.7Underperforming −− | 15 | -6.1 | -3.6 | 1:2 vs Arminia Bielefeld (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Karlsruher SC (-1.8) |
19 | Arminia Bielefeld | 34 | 39 | 48.8 | -9.8Underperforming −− | 8 | -1.0 | -8.8 | 0:2 vs Magdeburg (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Preussen Munster (-1.9) |
20 | Magdeburg | 34 | 39 | 49.0 | -10.0Underperforming −− | 7 | -10.7 | +0.6 | 0:2 vs Hertha Berlin (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Kaiserslautern (-2.1) |
