2. Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Schalke | 34 | 65 | 55.2 | +9.8Outperforming ++ | 3 | +1.4 | +8.4 | 2:5 vs Darmstadt (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Karlsruher SC (-1.8) |
2 | Darmstadt | 34 | 60 | 52.1 | +7.9Outperforming ++ | 4 | +4.2 | +3.7 | 2:4 vs Schalke (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Dusseldorf (-1.8) |
3 | Sandhausen | 34 | 41 | 34.8 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 17 | -2.8 | +9.0 | 1:2 vs Hannover (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Ingolstadt (-1.5) |
4 | St. Pauli | 34 | 57 | 51.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 5 | +8.4 | -2.9 | 3:2 vs Hamburger SV (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Hannover (-1.7) |
5 | Nurnberg | 34 | 51 | 47.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 9 | +0.9 | +2.8 | 2:1 vs Hamburger SV (+1.9) | 0:5 vs Ingolstadt (-1.9) |
6 | Paderborn | 34 | 51 | 47.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 8 | -8.4 | +12.0 | 1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Holstein Kiel (-1.7) |
7 | Heidenheim | 34 | 52 | 48.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 7 | +6.7 | -3.3 | 2:1 vs Werder Bremen (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Aue (-2.2) |
8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 63 | 60.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 2 | -3.7 | +5.8 | 2:3 vs Dusseldorf (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Holstein Kiel (-2.4) |
9 | Hansa Rostock | 34 | 41 | 41.6 | -0.6On expectation | 14 | -6.8 | +6.3 | 0:3 vs Hannover (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Aue (-1.7) |
10 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 45 | 46.0 | -0.9On expectation | 11 | +0.3 | -1.3 | 2:3 vs Werder Bremen (+2.6) | 0:2 vs Hansa Rostock (-1.8) |
11 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 60 | 61.3 | -1.3On expectation | 1 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 0:2 vs Werder Bremen (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Paderborn (-2.0) |
12 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 41 | 44.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 12 | -2.4 | -1.1 | 1:2 vs Schalke (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Sandhausen (-1.9) |
13 | Regensburg | 34 | 40 | 43.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 13 | -2.6 | -1.1 | 0:3 vs Holstein Kiel (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Hansa Rostock (-1.7) |
14 | Hannover | 34 | 42 | 46.6 | -4.6Underperforming | 10 | -2.4 | -2.3 | 1:0 vs Hamburger SV (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Sandhausen (-2.1) |
15 | Aue | 34 | 26 | 31.9 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 18 | -6.5 | +0.6 | 0:2 vs Heidenheim (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Sandhausen (-1.4) |
16 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 44 | 50.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 6 | -3.9 | -2.8 | 1:3 vs Darmstadt (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Sandhausen (-2.0) |
17 | SG Dynamo Dresden | 34 | 32 | 39.9 | -7.9Underperforming −− | 15 | -2.7 | -5.2 | 3:0 vs Werder Bremen (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Aue (-1.8) |
18 | Ingolstadt | 34 | 21 | 35.0 | -14.1Underperforming −− | 16 | -8.7 | -5.4 | 0:5 vs Nurnberg (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Paderborn (-1.4) |
