2. Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bochum | 34 | 67 | 53.9 | +13.1Outperforming ++ | 2 | +9.3 | +3.7 | 1:3 vs Hamburger SV (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Aue (-1.8) |
2 | Greuther Furth | 34 | 64 | 53.7 | +10.3Outperforming ++ | 3 | +1.8 | +8.5 | 1:3 vs Holstein Kiel (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Heidenheim (-1.7) |
3 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 62 | 53.6 | +8.4Outperforming ++ | 4 | +6.3 | +2.1 | 0:2 vs Dusseldorf (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Darmstadt (-2.0) |
4 | Aue | 34 | 44 | 37.8 | +6.2Outperforming ++ | 16 | +7.0 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Bochum (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Regensburg (-1.4) |
5 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 52 | 46.3 | +5.7Outperforming ++ | 11 | -4.3 | +10.0 | 3:2 vs Holstein Kiel (+1.9) | 0:1 vs VfL Osnabruck (-1.8) |
6 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 56 | 51.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 6 | +9.0 | -4.7 | 1:2 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Wurzburger Kickers (-1.9) |
7 | St. Pauli | 34 | 47 | 43.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 12 | +3.1 | +0.4 | 2:3 vs Hannover (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Braunschweig (-1.5) |
8 | Darmstadt | 34 | 51 | 47.6 | +3.4Outperforming | 9 | -2.3 | +5.7 | 2:3 vs Holstein Kiel (+2.2) | 0:4 vs Paderborn (-1.5) |
9 | Heidenheim | 34 | 51 | 49.1 | +1.9On expectation | 7 | +6.5 | -4.6 | 0:1 vs Greuther Furth (+1.9) | 3:4 vs St. Pauli (-1.8) |
10 | Paderborn | 34 | 47 | 48.9 | -1.9On expectation | 8 | +2.9 | -4.8 | 1:0 vs Hannover (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Darmstadt (-1.6) |
11 | Nurnberg | 34 | 44 | 46.7 | -2.7Underperforming | 10 | -3.1 | +0.3 | 0:1 vs Karlsruher SC (+1.9) | 2:3 vs Darmstadt (-1.7) |
12 | Regensburg | 34 | 38 | 41.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 14 | +1.4 | -4.4 | 0:1 vs Nurnberg (+1.8) | 2:0 vs Braunschweig (-1.5) |
13 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 58 | 62.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 1 | +1.5 | -5.5 | 0:2 vs Bochum (+1.6) | 3:2 vs VfL Osnabruck (-2.0) |
14 | Braunschweig | 34 | 31 | 35.5 | -4.5Underperforming | 17 | +1.9 | -6.5 | 2:1 vs Bochum (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Wurzburger Kickers (-2.0) |
15 | VfL Osnabruck | 34 | 33 | 39.1 | -6.1Underperforming −− | 15 | -10.4 | +4.4 | 3:2 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Wurzburger Kickers (-1.8) |
16 | Wurzburger Kickers | 34 | 25 | 32.4 | -7.4Underperforming −− | 18 | -3.8 | -3.6 | 1:2 vs Hannover (+2.3) | 0:3 vs Aue (-1.4) |
17 | Sandhausen | 34 | 34 | 41.5 | -7.5Underperforming −− | 13 | +8.5 | -15.9 | 2:1 vs Hamburger SV (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Aue (-1.5) |
18 | Hannover | 34 | 42 | 52.5 | -10.5Underperforming −− | 5 | -4.0 | -6.5 | 0:1 vs Hamburger SV (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Wurzburger Kickers (-2.1) |
