2. Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 68 | 48.4 | +19.6Outperforming ++ | 7 | +2.0 | +17.6 | 0:1 vs Dusseldorf (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Braunschweig (-1.9) |
2 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 63 | 54.4 | +8.6Outperforming ++ | 3 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 2:3 vs Magdeburg (+1.6) | 1:3 vs Wehen (-2.1) |
3 | St. Pauli | 34 | 69 | 61.9 | +7.1Outperforming ++ | 1 | +3.3 | +3.8 | 1:2 vs Hertha Berlin (+1.6) | 3:4 vs Elversberg (-2.2) |
4 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 55 | 48.9 | +6.1Outperforming ++ | 6 | +4.3 | +1.8 | 3:4 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Holstein Kiel (-1.8) |
5 | Paderborn | 34 | 52 | 47.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 10 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Braunschweig (-1.8) |
6 | Hannover | 34 | 52 | 49.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 5 | +1.7 | +1.3 | 3:4 vs Hamburger SV (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Holstein Kiel (-1.6) |
7 | Greuther Furth | 34 | 50 | 47.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 9 | +6.4 | -4.2 | 3:5 vs Wehen (+1.9) | 1:4 vs Elversberg (-1.8) |
8 | Nurnberg | 34 | 40 | 39.6 | +0.3On expectation | 15 | -1.2 | +1.6 | 0:1 vs Magdeburg (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Schalke (-1.6) |
9 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 48 | 48.0 | -0.0On expectation | 8 | +2.7 | -2.7 | 1:2 vs Greuther Furth (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Wehen (-2.0) |
10 | Elversberg | 34 | 43 | 44.1 | -1.1On expectation | 13 | -3.1 | +2.1 | 3:4 vs St. Pauli (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Nurnberg (-1.8) |
11 | Braunschweig | 34 | 38 | 39.7 | -1.7On expectation | 14 | +1.8 | -3.5 | 1:2 vs Holstein Kiel (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Hansa Rostock (-1.9) |
12 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 58 | 59.9 | -1.9On expectation | 2 | +3.1 | -5.0 | 0:2 vs Schalke (+1.6) | 1:2 vs VfL Osnabruck (-2.2) |
13 | Hansa Rostock | 34 | 31 | 36.6 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 17 | -2.0 | -3.6 | 0:1 vs Braunschweig (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Paderborn (-1.5) |
14 | Wehen | 34 | 32 | 38.0 | -6.0Underperforming −− | 16 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 1:3 vs Dusseldorf (+2.3) | 0:1 vs VfL Osnabruck (-1.7) |
15 | Schalke | 34 | 43 | 49.4 | -6.3Underperforming −− | 4 | +3.5 | -9.8 | 3:1 vs St. Pauli (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Elversberg (-1.7) |
16 | VfL Osnabruck | 34 | 28 | 35.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -3.7 | -3.4 | 1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Wehen (-1.6) |
17 | Kaiserslautern | 34 | 39 | 46.3 | -7.3Underperforming −− | 12 | -0.5 | -6.8 | 1:3 vs Holstein Kiel (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Hertha Berlin (-1.6) |
18 | Magdeburg | 34 | 38 | 46.9 | -8.9Underperforming −− | 11 | -2.7 | -6.2 | 1:0 vs St. Pauli (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Nurnberg (-1.9) |
