2. Bundesligahub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Elversberg | 34 | 58 | 49.8 | +8.2Outperforming ++ | 7 | +2.5 | +5.7 | 1:4 vs Hertha Berlin (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Preussen Munster (-2.0) |
2 | Kaiserslautern | 34 | 53 | 44.9 | +8.1Outperforming ++ | 12 | +6.2 | +1.9 | 3:4 vs Dusseldorf (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Nurnberg (-1.8) |
3 | Nurnberg | 34 | 48 | 41.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 14 | +2.4 | +4.1 | 1:4 vs Braunschweig (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Regensburg (-1.7) |
4 | Karlsruher SC | 34 | 52 | 46.6 | +5.4Outperforming ++ | 10 | +4.3 | +1.1 | 1:2 vs Hamburger SV (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Braunschweig (-1.8) |
5 | Magdeburg | 34 | 53 | 49.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 8 | -6.1 | +9.5 | 1:2 vs FC Koln (+2.4) | 0:5 vs Preussen Munster (-2.1) |
6 | Dusseldorf | 34 | 53 | 50.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 6 | -2.2 | +4.9 | 1:2 vs Paderborn (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Kaiserslautern (-1.9) |
7 | Hamburger SV | 34 | 59 | 58.1 | +0.8On expectation | 2 | -1.6 | +2.5 | 1:2 vs FC Koln (+1.9) | 2:4 vs Braunschweig (-2.2) |
8 | Paderborn | 34 | 55 | 54.6 | +0.4On expectation | 3 | -3.4 | +3.9 | 1:2 vs FC Koln (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Dusseldorf (-2.0) |
9 | Hannover | 34 | 51 | 51.5 | -0.5On expectation | 4 | +2.4 | -2.9 | 1:0 vs FC Koln (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Darmstadt (-1.6) |
10 | FC Koln | 34 | 61 | 62.0 | -1.0On expectation | 1 | -3.1 | +2.1 | 1:2 vs Paderborn (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Magdeburg (-2.2) |
11 | Preussen Munster | 34 | 36 | 38.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 16 | -3.4 | +0.8 | 0:5 vs Magdeburg (+2.3) | 3:2 vs Nurnberg (-1.4) |
12 | Greuther Furth | 34 | 39 | 42.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 13 | -1.2 | -1.9 | 1:2 vs Paderborn (+2.1) | 0:4 vs Nurnberg (-1.6) |
13 | Braunschweig | 34 | 35 | 39.1 | -4.1Underperforming | 15 | +0.1 | -4.3 | 2:4 vs Hamburger SV (+2.4) | 1:4 vs Nurnberg (-1.9) |
14 | Regensburg | 34 | 25 | 30.1 | -5.1Underperforming −− | 18 | +5.4 | -10.5 | 2:1 vs Darmstadt (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Preussen Munster (-1.5) |
15 | Darmstadt | 34 | 42 | 48.2 | -6.2Underperforming −− | 9 | +0.6 | -6.8 | 3:5 vs Schalke (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Regensburg (-1.9) |
16 | Ulm | 34 | 30 | 36.9 | -6.9Underperforming −− | 17 | -4.2 | -2.7 | 1:3 vs Elversberg (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Nurnberg (-1.6) |
17 | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 44 | 51.3 | -7.3Underperforming −− | 5 | -11.8 | +4.5 | 0:1 vs FC Koln (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Preussen Munster (-1.9) |
18 | Schalke | 34 | 38 | 46.0 | -8.0Underperforming −− | 11 | -4.7 | -3.3 | 2:4 vs Paderborn (+2.1) | 2:0 vs Regensburg (-1.8) |
