The season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +14.0% at market prices across 125 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
SJK Akatemia produced performances worth 12 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
SJK Akatemia – KTP2026-10-11 13:00Under 1.5 HTModel 67.7%Implied 56.5%▲ +11.2%- Klubi 04 – Ekenas2026-10-09 16:00Away winModel 36.4%Implied 27.7%▲ +8.7%
- JaPS – Jippo2026-10-09 16:00Under 2.5Model 59.3%Implied 52.4%▲ +6.9%
- Haka – PK-352026-10-09 16:00Under 2.5Model 55.8%Implied 49.8%▲ +6.1%
- KaPa – Mikkeli2026-10-09 16:00Away winModel 38.7%Implied 33.2%▲ +5.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SJK Akatemia– KTP | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 67.7% | 56.5% | ▲ +11.2% | 1.77 |
| 2 |  Klubi 04– Ekenas | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Away win | 36.4% | 27.7% | ▲ +8.7% | 3.61 |
| 3 |  JaPS– Jippo | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 52.4% | ▲ +6.9% | 1.91 |
| 4 |  Haka– PK-35 | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 49.8% | ▲ +6.1% | 2.01 |
| 5 |  KaPa– Mikkeli | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Away win | 38.7% | 33.2% | ▲ +5.5% | 3.01 |
Add Ykkonen fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Ykkonen schedule 10,000 times a day. KTP win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~62 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, SJK Akatemia finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KTP | 58 | 62 | 60–64 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | PK-35 | 49 | 52 | 50–55 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 | Haka | 44 | 47 | 44–50 | — | >99% | — |
| 4 | Jippo | 41 | 44 | 42–47 | — | >99% | — |
| 5 | JaPS | 35 | 37 | 35–39 | — | — | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | KaPa | 24 | 26 | 24–28 | — | — | 94% |
| 9 | Klubi 04 | 23 | 25 | 23–27 | — | — | 98% |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 14 | 15 | 14–17 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 10 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Ykkonen match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KTP | 58 | 46.8 | +11.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | PK-35 | 49 | 38.8 | +10.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Haka | 44 | 46.4 | -2.4 | |
| 4 | Jippo | 41 | 43.3 | -2.3 | |
| 5 | JaPS | 35 | 29.1 | +5.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | KaPa | 24 | 25.3 | -1.3 | |
| 9 | Klubi 04 | 23 | 29.6 | -6.6 | |
| 10 | SJK Akatemia | 14 | 25.7 | -11.7 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+