Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +4.2% at market prices across 159 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Slough produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Maidenhead – Horsham FC2026-10-27 19:45
Under 2.5Model 68.3%Implied 49.0%▲ +19.2%Billericay – Hampton & Richmond2026-10-27 19:45
Over 1.5 HTModel 60.2%Implied 45.9%▲ +14.4%Walton & Hersham – Salisbury2026-10-27 19:45
Under 2.5Model 50.8%Implied 37.9%▲ +12.9%Chesham – Farnham2026-10-27 19:45
Away winModel 46.5%Implied 38.2%▲ +8.4%Maidstone – Ebbsfleet2026-10-27 19:45
Home winModel 39.2%Implied 31.9%▲ +7.2%Dorking – Hemel Hempstead2026-10-27 19:45
BTTS: NoModel 47.6%Implied 40.5%▲ +7.1%Truro – Slough2026-10-27 19:45
Under 1.5 HTModel 62.0%Implied 54.9%▲ +7.0%Tonbridge – Folkestone2026-10-27 19:45
Under 2.5Model 50.1%Implied 45.2%▲ +4.9%AFC Totton – Torquay2026-10-27 19:45
Over 1.5 HTModel 48.4%Implied 46.1%▲ +2.3%Dover – Chelmsford2026-10-27 19:45
BTTS: NoModel 43.6%Implied 42.2%▲ +1.5%Farnborough – Weston-super-Mare2026-10-28 19:45
Away winModel 43.0%Implied 42.6%▲ +0.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidenhead– Horsham FC | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 68.3% | 49.0% | ▲ +19.2% | 2.04 |
| 2 | Billericay– Hampton & Richmond | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Over 1.5 HT | 60.2% | 45.9% | ▲ +14.4% | 2.18 |
| 3 | Walton & Hersham– Salisbury | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 37.9% | ▲ +12.9% | 2.64 |
| 4 | Chesham– Farnham | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Away win | 46.5% | 38.2% | ▲ +8.4% | 2.62 |
| 5 | Maidstone– Ebbsfleet | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Home win | 39.2% | 31.9% | ▲ +7.2% | 3.13 |
| 6 | Dorking– Hemel Hempstead | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | BTTS: No | 47.6% | 40.5% | ▲ +7.1% | 2.47 |
| 7 | Truro– Slough | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 62.0% | 54.9% | ▲ +7.0% | 1.82 |
| 8 | Tonbridge– Folkestone | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 45.2% | ▲ +4.9% | 2.21 |
| 9 | AFC Totton– Torquay | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Over 1.5 HT | 48.4% | 46.1% | ▲ +2.3% | 2.17 |
| 10 | Dover– Chelmsford | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | BTTS: No | 43.6% | 42.2% | ▲ +1.5% | 2.37 |
| 11 | Farnborough– Weston-super-Mare | 2026-10-28 | 19:45 | Away win | 43.0% | 42.6% | ▲ +0.4% | 2.35 |
National League South predictions and stats by market: 1X2 · Over 2.5 · Under 2.5 · BTTS · HT Over 1.5 · HT Under 1.5
Add National League South fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining National League South schedule 10,000 times a day. Ebbsfleet win the 2026-2027 title in 42% of them, projecting ~91 points; Billericay are next at 23%. At the other end, Walton & Hersham finish in the bottom three in 96% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 28 | 91 | 81–100 | 42% | 88% | — |
| 2 | Billericay | 25 | 87 | 78–97 | 23% | 77% | — |
| 3 | Maidstone | 29 | 86 | 76–95 | 15% | 68% | — |
| 4 | Truro | 27 | 85 | 76–95 | 14% | 65% | — |
| 5 | Dorking | 21 | 78 | 68–87 | 2% | 28% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 43 | 34–52 | — | — | 54% |
| 23 | Slough | 4 | 38 | 29–47 | — | — | 80% |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 32 | 24–40 | — | — | 96% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 404 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/national-league-south/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="National League South live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/national-league-south">National League South stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every National League South match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 29 | 22.2 | +6.8 | |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet | 28 | 22.5 | +5.5 | |
| 3 | Truro | 27 | 21.6 | +5.4 | |
| 4 | Billericay | 25 | 17.6 | +7.4 | |
| 5 | Tonbridge | 24 | 18.4 | +5.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 13.5 | -5.5 | |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 11.4 | -3.4 | |
| 24 | Slough | 4 | 13.9 | -9.9 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Ebbsfleet28 ptsTruro27 ptsBillericay25 ptsTonbridge24 ptsDag & Red24 pts
Salisbury23 pts
Dorking21 ptsFarnham20 pts
Torquay20 ptsFolkestone19 ptsHorsham FC19 pts
Dover19 ptsWeston-super-Mare18 pts
Chelmsford16 pts
Maidenhead16 pts
AFC Totton16 pts
Hemel Hempstead14 pts
Farnborough14 ptsBraintree13 pts
Chesham10 pts
Hampton & Richmond8 ptsWalton & Hersham8 ptsSlough4 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+










