Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +6.6% at market prices across 124 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Slough produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.6' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →No matches for this view.
Add National League South fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 5 OctWe simulate the remaining National League South schedule 10,000 times a day. Maidstone win the 2026-2027 title in 23% of them, projecting ~84 points; Truro are next at 24%. At the other end, Walton & Hersham finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 22 | 84 | 74–93 | 23% | 67% | — |
| 2 | Truro | 20 | 83 | 73–93 | 24% | 67% | — |
| 3 | Billericay | 19 | 81 | 71–91 | 17% | 57% | — |
| 4 |  Ebbsfleet | 12 | 79 | 68–90 | 11% | 45% | — |
| 5 |  Dorking | 17 | 78 | 68–88 | 8% | 41% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 22 |  Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 46 | 37–55 | — | — | 59% |
| 23 | Slough | 4 | 43 | 33–52 | — | — | 75% |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 21 | 14–28 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 439 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/national-league-south/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="National League South live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/national-league-south">National League South stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every National League South match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 22 | 18.0 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | Truro | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9 | |
| 3 | Dag & Red | 20 | 17.9 | +2.1 | |
| 4 |  Salisbury | 19 | 13.8 | +5.3 | |
| 5 | Billericay | 19 | 14.5 | +4.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 11.7 | -3.7 | |
| 23 | Slough | 4 | 11.4 | -7.4 | |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 8.7 | -6.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisSalisbury19 ptsBillericay19 ptsTonbridge17 ptsWeston-super-Mare17 ptsDorking17 pts
Dover17 pts
Maidenhead16 ptsFarnham16 pts
Torquay16 pts
Hemel Hempstead13 pts
AFC Totton13 ptsBraintree13 ptsEbbsfleet12 ptsFolkestone12 pts
Chelmsford12 ptsHorsham FC12 pts
Farnborough11 pts
Chesham10 ptsHampton & Richmond8 ptsSlough4 ptsWalton & Hersham2 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+