The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Slough produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Horsham FC – Chesham2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.5 ✓59.3%vs 46.3%▲ +13.0%AFC Totton – Slough2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓31.2%vs 22.1%▲ +9.1%Braintree – Maidstone2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.552.8%vs 46.1%▲ +6.8%Torquay – Dorking2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓32.5%vs 27.2%▲ +5.4%Ebbsfleet – Salisbury2026-09-12 14:00
BTTS: No ✓51.4%vs 47.2%▲ +4.2%Hemel Hempstead – Tonbridge2026-09-12 14:00
Under 2.5 ✓56.6%vs 52.6%▲ +4.0%Farnborough – Dover2026-09-12 14:00
Away win ✓28.0%vs 25.1%▲ +2.9%Hampton & Richmond – Chelmsford2026-09-12 14:00
Home win27.5%vs 27.4%▲ +0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horsham FC– Chesham | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 59.3% | 46.3% | ▲ +13.0% | 2.16 | |
| 2 | AFC Totton– Slough | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 31.2% | 22.1% | ▲ +9.1% | 4.52 | |
| 3 | Braintree– Maidstone | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 46.1% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.17 | |
| 4 | Torquay– Dorking | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 32.5% | 27.2% | ▲ +5.4% | 3.68 | |
| 5 | Ebbsfleet– Salisbury | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | BTTS: No ✓ | 51.4% | 47.2% | ▲ +4.2% | 2.12 | |
| 6 | Hemel Hempstead– Tonbridge | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.6% | 52.6% | ▲ +4.0% | 1.90 | |
| 7 | Farnborough– Dover | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 28.0% | 25.1% | ▲ +2.9% | 3.99 | |
| 8 | Hampton & Richmond– Chelmsford | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 27.5% | 27.4% | ▲ +0.1% | 3.65 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining National League South schedule 10,000 times a day. Folkestone win the 2026-2027 title in 28% of them, projecting ~74 points; Ebbsfleet are next at 12%. At the other end, Dag & Red finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folkestone | 3 | 74 | 63–85 | 28% | 67% | <1% |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet | 0 | 70 | 59–80 | 12% | 47% | <1% |
| 3 | Maidstone | 0 | 69 | 58–80 | 11% | 42% | <1% |
| 4 | Dorking | 0 | 69 | 58–79 | 10% | 41% | <1% |
| 5 | Truro | 3 | 68 | 58–79 | 9% | 38% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 21 | Dover | 0 | 42 | 33–52 | <1% | <1% | 36% |
| 22 | Walton & Hersham | 0 | 36 | 27–46 | — | <1% | 70% |
| 23 | Dag & Red | 3 | 3 | 3–3 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 452 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/england/national-league-south/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="National League South live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/england/national-league-south">National League South stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every National League South match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone | 22 | 14.8 | +7.2 | |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | Tonbridge | 16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | |
| 4 | Truro | 16 | 10.4 | +5.6 | |
| 5 | Torquay | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | |
| 23 | Slough | 0 | 8.7 | -8.7 | underperformed expectations |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 0 | 7.1 | -7.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Torquay15 ptsWeston-super-Mare14 pts
Dorking13 pts
AFC Totton13 pts
Salisbury12 ptsFolkestone12 ptsBillericay12 pts
Maidenhead12 ptsHorsham FC11 pts
Dover11 pts
Chelmsford10 ptsFarnham10 ptsBraintree10 pts
Farnborough10 pts
Hemel Hempstead9 pts
Ebbsfleet7 pts
Chesham7 pts
Hampton & Richmond7 ptsSlough0 ptsWalton & Hersham0 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+





