National League South predicted table 2026/27
England · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 October 2026
- Ebbsfleet are the most likely National League South champions, finishing first in 32% of 10,000 simulations (projected 88 points; Maidstone next on 23%).
- Walton & Hersham (96%), Slough (78%), Hampton & Richmond (53%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Chelmsford sit 16th today but are projected to finish 8th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 11 | 25 | 8878–98 | 32% | 81% | 0% | 1st (32%) |
| 2 | Maidstone | 13 | 28 | 8777–96 | 23% | 75% | 0% | 1st (23%) |
| 3 | Billericay | 12 | 22 | 8575–95 | 19% | 69% | 0% | 1st (19%) |
| 4 | Truro | 12 | 24 | 8575–94 | 16% | 66% | 0% | 3rd (18%) |
| 5 | Dorking | 12 | 18 | 7767–87 | 3% | 28% | 0% | 6th (12%) |
| 6 | Torquay | 12 | 19 | 7767–87 | 3% | 25% | <1% | 6th (12%) |
| 7 | Tonbridge | 13 | 23 | 7364–83 | <1% | 13% | <1% | 8th (10%) |
| 8 | Chelmsford | 11 | 15 | 7363–83 | 1% | 14% | 0% | 8th (10%) |
| 9 | Maidenhead | 13 | 16 | 7363–82 | <1% | 11% | <1% | 8th (11%) |
| 10 | Salisbury | 12 | 22 | 7161–80 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 10th (10%) |
| 11 | Weston-super-Mare | 13 | 18 | 6858–77 | <1% | 3% | <1% | 11th (10%) |
| 12 | Farnham | 11 | 17 | 6757–77 | <1% | 3% | <1% | 12th (11%) |
| 13 | Folkestone | 13 | 16 | 6757–76 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 11th (10%) |
| 14 | Dag & Red | 13 | 21 | 6556–75 | <1% | 1% | <1% | 13th (11%) |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 13 | 16 | 6151–70 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 16th (12%) |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 12 | 14 | 5950–69 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 15th (12%) |
| 17 | Dover | 12 | 18 | 5646–65 | 0% | <1% | 6% | 18th (14%) |
| 18 | Chesham | 12 | 10 | 5546–65 | 0% | <1% | 7% | 18th (13%) |
| 19 | Farnborough | 12 | 14 | 5444–63 | <1% | <1% | 10% | 19th (14%) |
| 20 | Braintree | 12 | 13 | 5444–63 | 0% | <1% | 10% | 19th (14%) |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 13 | 13 | 4738–56 | 0% | 0% | 36% | 21st (22%) |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 8 | 4435–53 | 0% | 0% | 53% | 22nd (26%) |
| 23 | Slough | 13 | 4 | 3930–48 | 0% | 0% | 78% | 23rd (36%) |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 8 | 3325–41 | 0% | 0% | 96% | 24th (67%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 416 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
