National League South title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
England · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Ebbsfleet (32%), Maidstone (23%), Billericay (19%). 95 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet | 11 | 25 | 8878–98 | 32% | 70 from 36 (1.94/game) |
| Maidstone | 13 | 28 | 8777–96 | 23% | 67 from 34 (1.97/game) |
| Billericay | 12 | 22 | 8575–95 | 19% | 73 from 35 (2.09/game) |
| Truro | 12 | 24 | 8575–94 | 16% | 71 from 35 (2.03/game) |
| Dorking | 12 | 18 | 7767–87 | 3% | 77 from 35 (2.20/game) |
| Torquay | 12 | 19 | 7767–87 | 3% | 76 from 35 (2.17/game) |
| Chelmsford | 11 | 15 | 7363–83 | 1% | 80 from 36 (2.22/game) |
Below 1%: Tonbridge, Maidenhead, Salisbury, Weston-super-Mare, Farnham, Folkestone, Dag & Red, Horsham FC, Hemel Hempstead, Dover, Chesham, Farnborough, Braintree, AFC Totton, Hampton & Richmond, Slough, Walton & Hersham.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 416 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).