National League Southhub →National League South 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
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Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Salisbury | 16 | 32 | 22.8 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 11 | +3.8 | +5.4 | 0:1 vs Truro (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.4) |
2 | Farnham | 16 | 29 | 20.8 | +8.2Outperforming ++ | 18 | +1.9 | +6.3 | 1:2 vs Folkestone (+2.1) | 2:4 vs Billericay (-1.7) |
3 | Maidstone | 17 | 35 | 27.1 | +7.8Outperforming ++ | 4 | +1.1 | +6.8 | 2:3 vs Dorking (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Farnborough (-2.0) |
4 | Truro | 15 | 33 | 25.4 | +7.6Outperforming ++ | 7 | +4.3 | +3.3 | 0:2 vs Tonbridge (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Salisbury (-1.9) |
5 | Billericay | 16 | 30 | 22.5 | +7.5Outperforming ++ | 14 | +4.6 | +2.9 | 2:4 vs Farnham (+2.0) | 1:0 vs AFC Totton (-1.3) |
6 | Ebbsfleet | 17 | 38 | 31.4 | +6.6Outperforming ++ | 1 | +2.3 | +4.3 | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (+1.6) | 3:0 vs Truro (-1.3) |
7 | Dover | 15 | 22 | 16.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 23 | -0.4 | +6.2 | 0:1 vs Dag & Red (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-1.2) |
8 | Tonbridge | 17 | 27 | 22.6 | +4.4Outperforming | 13 | -2.3 | +6.8 | 0:1 vs Maidenhead (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Salisbury (-1.4) |
9 | AFC Totton | 17 | 22 | 20.1 | +1.9On expectation | 19 | -0.9 | +2.8 | 2:3 vs Horsham FC (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Slough (-1.9) |
10 | Dorking | 16 | 28 | 26.3 | +1.8On expectation | 6 | +0.1 | +1.7 | 0:3 vs AFC Totton (+1.5) | 2:3 vs Maidstone (-1.5) |
11 | Braintree | 17 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7On expectation | 20 | +1.2 | -0.6 | 2:1 vs Maidstone (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Walton & Hersham (-1.9) |
12 | Chelmsford | 17 | 26 | 26.5 | -0.5On expectation | 5 | -3.0 | +2.5 | 0:5 vs Chesham (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Farnham (-1.7) |
13 | Horsham FC | 17 | 23 | 23.9 | -0.9On expectation | 10 | -5.6 | +4.7 | 0:5 vs Farnborough (+1.5) | 2:3 vs AFC Totton (-2.0) |
14 | Dag & Red | 17 | 26 | 27.7 | -1.7On expectation | 3 | +2.5 | -4.1 | 0:1 vs Dorking (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Dover (-2.3) |
15 | Torquay | 16 | 26 | 28.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 2 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0:4 vs Maidenhead (+1.5) | 1:0 vs AFC Totton (-1.8) |
16 | Folkestone | 16 | 20 | 22.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 12 | +2.0 | -4.6 | 2:0 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Farnham (-1.8) |
17 | Farnborough | 17 | 17 | 20.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 17 | -2.7 | -1.1 | 1:2 vs Maidstone (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Dover (-1.7) |
18 | Weston-super-Mare | 17 | 21 | 25.1 | -4.1Underperforming | 8 | +1.6 | -5.6 | 1:3 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Dover (-2.0) |
19 | Maidenhead | 17 | 19 | 24.0 | -5.0Underperforming | 9 | -6.5 | +1.5 | 0:1 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-1.6) |
20 | Walton & Hersham | 16 | 8 | 14.3 | -6.3Underperforming −− | 24 | -6.5 | +0.3 | 1:3 vs Braintree (+2.1) | 3:1 vs Slough (-1.2) |
21 | Hemel Hempstead | 17 | 15 | 22.2 | -7.2Underperforming −− | 15 | -8.4 | +1.2 | 1:2 vs Salisbury (+1.7) | 1:3 vs AFC Totton (-1.9) |
22 | Hampton & Richmond | 17 | 10 | 17.8 | -7.8Underperforming −− | 21 | -0.1 | -7.8 | 2:0 vs Farnborough (+1.7) | 1:0 vs Braintree (-1.5) |
23 | Slough | 17 | 7 | 16.7 | -9.7Underperforming −− | 22 | -6.4 | -3.3 | 0:1 vs AFC Totton (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Braintree (-1.5) |
24 | Chesham | 16 | 11 | 21.8 | -10.8Underperforming −− | 16 | -6.3 | -4.5 | 1:4 vs Horsham FC (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Billericay (-1.6) |