National League Southhub →National League South 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Farnborough | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 21 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 1:2 vs Maidstone (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Maidstone (2.2) |
2 | AFC Totton | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9On expectation | 18 | 0.0 | +1.9 | 0:1 vs Farnham (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Farnham (1.9) |
3 | Dag & Red | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 15 | 0.0 | +1.7 | 0:1 vs Dorking (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Dorking (1.7) |
4 | Salisbury | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 14 | +1.7 | 0.0 | 5:0 vs Hampton & Richmond (+1.7) | 5:0 vs Hampton & Richmond (1.7) |
5 | Tonbridge | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 11 | 0.0 | +1.6 | 0:4 vs Braintree (+1.6) | 0:4 vs Braintree (1.6) |
6 | Weston-super-Mare | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 7 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs Chesham (+1.5) | 3:0 vs Chesham (1.5) |
7 | Truro | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 6 | +1.4 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs Maidenhead (+1.4) | 2:0 vs Maidenhead (1.4) |
8 | Folkestone | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 4 | +1.3 | 0.0 | 5:1 vs Walton & Hersham (+1.3) | 5:1 vs Walton & Hersham (1.3) |
9 | Billericay | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.3On expectation | 3 | +1.3 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs Dover (+1.3) | 2:0 vs Dover (1.3) |
10 | Horsham FC | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4On expectation | 22 | 0.0 | +0.4 | 1:1 vs Torquay (+0.4) | 1:1 vs Torquay (0.4) |
11 | Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 13 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs Chelmsford (+-0.3) | 1:1 vs Chelmsford (-0.3) |
12 | Chelmsford | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4On expectation | 10 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 1:1 vs Hemel Hempstead (+-0.4) | 1:1 vs Hemel Hempstead (-0.4) |
13 | Dover | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 20 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:0 vs Billericay (+-1.0) | 2:0 vs Billericay (-1.0) |
14 | Walton & Hersham | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 19 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 5:1 vs Folkestone (+-1.0) | 5:1 vs Folkestone (-1.0) |
15 | Maidenhead | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 17 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 2:0 vs Truro (+-1.1) | 2:0 vs Truro (-1.1) |
16 | Torquay | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2On expectation | 1 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs Horsham FC (+-1.2) | 1:1 vs Horsham FC (-1.2) |
17 | Chesham | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 16 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 3:0 vs Weston-super-Mare (+-1.2) | 3:0 vs Weston-super-Mare (-1.2) |
18 | Braintree | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 12 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0:4 vs Tonbridge (+-1.4) | 0:4 vs Tonbridge (-1.4) |
19 | Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 9 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 5:0 vs Salisbury (+-1.4) | 5:0 vs Salisbury (-1.4) |
20 | Dorking | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5On expectation | 8 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs Dag & Red (+-1.5) | 0:1 vs Dag & Red (-1.5) |
21 | Farnham | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7On expectation | 5 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs AFC Totton (+-1.7) | 0:1 vs AFC Totton (-1.7) |
22 | Maidstone | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0Underperforming | 2 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs Farnborough (+-2.0) | 1:2 vs Farnborough (-2.0) |