National League Southhub →National League South 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Salisbury | 11 | 19 | 13.8 | +5.3Outperforming ++ | 14 | +4.1 | +1.2 | 0:1 vs Truro (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.4) |
2 | Dover | 11 | 17 | 12.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 18 | -0.9 | +5.8 | 0:1 vs Dag & Red (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-1.2) |
3 | Farnham | 9 | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 20 | +0.3 | +4.3 | 1:2 vs Folkestone (+2.1) | 2:4 vs Billericay (-1.7) |
4 | Billericay | 11 | 19 | 14.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 11 | +3.2 | +1.3 | 2:4 vs Farnham (+2.0) | 1:0 vs AFC Totton (-1.3) |
5 | Maidstone | 11 | 22 | 18.0 | +4.0Outperforming | 2 | +0.0 | +4.0 | 2:3 vs Dorking (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Farnborough (-2.0) |
6 | Truro | 10 | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9Outperforming | 7 | +2.0 | +1.9 | 0:2 vs Tonbridge (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Salisbury (-1.9) |
7 | Tonbridge | 11 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 10 | -3.8 | +6.2 | 0:4 vs Farnborough (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Truro (-1.3) |
8 | Ebbsfleet | 5 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 23 | -1.6 | +3.7 | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (+1.5) | 1:1 vs Salisbury (-0.8) |
9 | Dag & Red | 11 | 20 | 17.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 3 | +2.4 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs Dorking (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Dover (-2.2) |
10 | Braintree | 10 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0On expectation | 21 | +0.2 | +1.8 | 2:1 vs Maidstone (+2.1) | 0:4 vs Tonbridge (-1.4) |
11 | Weston-super-Mare | 11 | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7On expectation | 5 | +2.8 | -2.1 | 1:3 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Dover (-2.0) |
12 | Maidenhead | 11 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1On expectation | 8 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 0:4 vs Chesham (+1.8) | 0:4 vs Torquay (-1.3) |
13 | AFC Totton | 10 | 13 | 13.2 | -0.2On expectation | 17 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0:1 vs Farnham (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Slough (-1.9) |
14 | Dorking | 11 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3On expectation | 4 | -1.4 | +1.1 | 0:3 vs AFC Totton (+1.5) | 2:3 vs Maidstone (-1.5) |
15 | Hemel Hempstead | 10 | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7On expectation | 15 | -4.3 | +3.6 | 1:2 vs Salisbury (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Maidenhead (-1.5) |
16 | Horsham FC | 10 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5On expectation | 16 | -3.3 | +1.8 | 1:2 vs Braintree (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Farnham (-1.7) |
17 | Folkestone | 10 | 12 | 14.4 | -2.4Underperforming | 12 | -0.3 | -2.1 | 2:0 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Farnham (-1.8) |
18 | Farnborough | 10 | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8Underperforming | 13 | -4.4 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Maidstone (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Dover (-1.7) |
19 | Torquay | 11 | 16 | 19.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 1 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 0:4 vs Maidenhead (+1.5) | 2:0 vs Farnham (-1.7) |
20 | Chelmsford | 10 | 12 | 15.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 9 | -1.6 | -1.8 | 1:0 vs Maidenhead (+1.4) | 1:1 vs Salisbury (-0.8) |
21 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 8 | 11.7 | -3.7Underperforming | 19 | +2.1 | -5.8 | 2:0 vs Farnborough (+1.7) | 5:0 vs Salisbury (-1.4) |
22 | Chesham | 11 | 10 | 16.1 | -6.1Underperforming −− | 6 | -3.3 | -2.9 | 1:4 vs Horsham FC (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Billericay (-1.7) |
23 | Walton & Hersham | 10 | 2 | 8.8 | -6.8Underperforming −− | 24 | -4.8 | -2.0 | 1:1 vs Truro (+0.6) | 0:3 vs Maidstone (-1.1) |
24 | Slough | 10 | 3 | 10.6 | -7.6Underperforming −− | 22 | -6.1 | -1.6 | 0:1 vs AFC Totton (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Braintree (-1.5) |