National League Southhub →National League South 2022-2023 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Braintree | 46 | 74 | 59.2 | +14.8Outperforming ++ | 14 | +11.7 | +3.2 | 0:1 vs Farnborough (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Taunton (-1.8) |
2 | Tonbridge | 46 | 70 | 57.7 | +12.3Outperforming ++ | 15 | +2.0 | +10.3 | 1:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.5) | 2:3 vs Taunton (-1.6) |
3 | Dartford | 46 | 83 | 73.0 | +10.0Outperforming ++ | 3 | +10.3 | -0.3 | 1:4 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Taunton (-2.0) |
4 | Chelmsford | 46 | 78 | 68.8 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 8 | +6.6 | +2.6 | 1:2 vs Dartford (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Taunton (-2.2) |
5 | Eastbourne Boro | 46 | 71 | 63.5 | +7.5Outperforming ++ | 11 | +3.2 | +4.3 | 0:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
6 | Worthing | 46 | 78 | 70.7 | +7.3Outperforming ++ | 5 | +2.6 | +4.7 | 1:5 vs Havant & W (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Farnborough (-2.0) |
7 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 103 | 96.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +5.2 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Havant & W (+1.4) | 1:0 vs Cheshunt (-2.3) |
8 | St. Albans | 46 | 75 | 68.8 | +6.2Outperforming ++ | 7 | -2.0 | +8.1 | 1:2 vs Havant & W (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Tonbridge (-1.9) |
9 | Chippenham | 46 | 62 | 56.3 | +5.7Outperforming ++ | 17 | +7.2 | -1.5 | 0:1 vs Chelmsford (+2.2) | 3:2 vs Cheshunt (-1.5) |
10 | Oxford City | 46 | 78 | 72.8 | +5.2Outperforming ++ | 4 | +6.8 | -1.5 | 0:1 vs Havant & W (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Slough (-2.0) |
11 | Taunton | 46 | 61 | 56.2 | +4.8Outperforming | 20 | -1.3 | +6.2 | 1:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.4) | 0:3 vs Hungerford (-1.8) |
12 | Welling | 46 | 59 | 55.0 | +4.0Outperforming | 21 | -2.2 | +6.2 | 3:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Concord (-1.9) |
13 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 60 | 56.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 16 | +1.6 | +1.9 | 1:3 vs Dartford (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Cheshunt (-1.8) |
14 | Concord | 46 | 44 | 41.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 24 | +4.0 | -1.8 | 3:2 vs Dartford (+2.2) | 3:4 vs Havant & W (-1.3) |
15 | Bath | 46 | 67 | 65.0 | +1.9On expectation | 9 | -2.2 | +4.2 | 2:0 vs Havant & W (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Chippenham (-1.8) |
16 | Farnborough | 46 | 66 | 68.9 | -2.9Underperforming | 6 | -4.8 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs Worthing (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.0) |
17 | Cheshunt | 46 | 43 | 47.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 23 | +1.0 | -5.0 | 1:0 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Farnborough (-1.4) |
18 | Slough | 46 | 51 | 56.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 19 | -3.3 | -1.9 | 1:3 vs Oxford City (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Welling (-1.6) |
19 | Dover | 46 | 48 | 56.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 18 | -4.6 | -3.7 | 1:3 vs Braintree (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Concord (-1.9) |
20 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 54 | 62.4 | -8.4Underperforming −− | 12 | -1.8 | -6.6 | 0:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.0) | 0:3 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
21 | Havant & W | 46 | 69 | 79.8 | -10.8Underperforming −− | 2 | -7.8 | -3.0 | 1:2 vs Dartford (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Welling (-2.0) |
22 | Hungerford | 46 | 40 | 53.6 | -13.6Underperforming −− | 22 | -2.9 | -10.8 | 0:3 vs Taunton (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Concord (-1.8) |
23 | Weymouth | 46 | 48 | 62.4 | -14.4Underperforming −− | 13 | -10.4 | -3.9 | 3:1 vs Dartford (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Concord (-2.0) |
24 | Dulwich Hamlet | 46 | 48 | 64.0 | -16.1Underperforming −− | 10 | -4.9 | -11.2 | 2:1 vs Havant & W (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.8) |