National League Southhub →National League South 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 79 | 66.1 | +12.9Outperforming ++ | 11 | +8.0 | +4.8 | 1:2 vs Torquay (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Slough (-2.0) |
2 | Weston-super-Mare | 47 | 81 | 70.1 | +10.9Outperforming ++ | 9 | +9.9 | +1.0 | 1:3 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Dover (-2.0) |
3 | Hornchurch | 46 | 81 | 70.9 | +10.1Outperforming ++ | 7 | +4.3 | +5.9 | 0:4 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Slough (-1.9) |
4 | Chesham | 46 | 72 | 62.4 | +9.7Outperforming ++ | 12 | +4.5 | +5.1 | 1:2 vs Maidenhead (+2.2) | 4:2 vs Bath (-1.9) |
5 | Tonbridge | 46 | 60 | 50.6 | +9.4Outperforming ++ | 20 | -0.3 | +9.7 | 0:1 vs Worthing (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Enfield Town (-1.4) |
6 | AFC Totton | 46 | 66 | 58.3 | +7.7Outperforming ++ | 15 | +13.3 | -5.6 | 2:1 vs Dorking (+2.1) | 1:6 vs Farnborough (-1.7) |
7 | Slough | 46 | 54 | 51.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 19 | +2.4 | +0.3 | 1:3 vs Maidenhead (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.5) |
8 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 53 | 50.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 21 | +0.1 | +2.7 | 0:3 vs Dorking (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.6) |
9 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 77 | 74.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 6 | +6.9 | -4.5 | 0:2 vs Dag & Red (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Weston-super-Mare (-1.9) |
10 | Chelmsford | 46 | 73 | 70.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 8 | -1.6 | +4.0 | 0:5 vs Torquay (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Eastbourne Boro (-2.2) |
11 | Worthing | 46 | 84 | 81.7 | +2.4Outperforming | 1 | +7.8 | -5.4 | 2:5 vs Dag & Red (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-2.2) |
12 | Maidstone | 46 | 77 | 75.6 | +1.4On expectation | 5 | +5.5 | -4.1 | 2:1 vs Worthing (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.1) |
13 | Dover | 46 | 50 | 48.9 | +1.1On expectation | 22 | -3.4 | +4.5 | 1:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Chippenham (-1.5) |
14 | Torquay | 46 | 80 | 80.3 | -0.3On expectation | 2 | +3.6 | -3.9 | 1:2 vs Maidenhead (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.2) |
15 | Maidenhead | 46 | 77 | 77.7 | -0.7On expectation | 4 | +1.8 | -2.5 | 0:1 vs Maidstone (+1.7) | 1:3 vs Slough (-2.2) |
16 | Dorking | 46 | 79 | 79.9 | -0.9On expectation | 3 | +11.1 | -12.0 | 3:1 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Hampton & Richmond (-2.4) |
17 | Horsham FC | 46 | 59 | 60.9 | -1.9On expectation | 13 | -2.2 | +0.3 | 2:1 vs Torquay (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Chesham (-1.7) |
18 | Dag & Red | 46 | 64 | 66.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 10 | +1.2 | -3.4 | 1:4 vs Chelmsford (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.9) |
19 | Farnborough | 46 | 53 | 56.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 17 | -0.7 | -2.8 | 2:0 vs Dorking (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Dover (-1.8) |
20 | Salisbury | 47 | 53 | 58.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 14 | +3.6 | -9.2 | 5:4 vs Worthing (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Tonbridge (-1.9) |
21 | Enfield Town | 46 | 40 | 45.9 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 24 | +1.8 | -7.6 | 2:1 vs Maidstone (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.3) |
22 | Chippenham | 46 | 42 | 48.6 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 23 | +7.1 | -13.8 | 1:0 vs Torquay (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Bath (-1.5) |
23 | Bath | 46 | 43 | 54.0 | -11.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -4.8 | -6.3 | 1:3 vs Dorking (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Dover (-1.8) |
24 | Eastbourne Boro | 46 | 36 | 57.6 | -21.6Underperforming −− | 16 | -16.6 | -5.1 | 1:3 vs Chelmsford (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Dover (-1.9) |