National League Southhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 79 | 67.5 | +11.5Outperforming ++ | 10 | +8.0 | +4.8 | 1:2 vs Torquay (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Slough (-2.0) |
2 | Hornchurch | 47 | 84 | 73.6 | +10.4Outperforming ++ | 7 | +5.8 | +5.9 | 0:4 vs Hemel Hempstead (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Slough (-1.9) |
3 | Weston-super | 23 | 48 | 38.0 | +10.0Outperforming ++ | 25 | +10.0 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs Mare-Maidenhead (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Mare-Dover (-2.0) |
4 | Chesham | 46 | 72 | 62.4 | +9.7Outperforming ++ | 12 | +4.5 | +5.1 | 1:2 vs Maidenhead (+2.2) | 4:2 vs Bath (-1.9) |
5 | Tonbridge | 46 | 60 | 50.6 | +9.4Outperforming ++ | 20 | -0.3 | +9.7 | 0:1 vs Worthing (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Enfield Town (-1.4) |
6 | AFC Totton | 46 | 66 | 58.3 | +7.7Outperforming ++ | 14 | +13.3 | -5.6 | 2:1 vs Dorking (+2.1) | 1:6 vs Farnborough (-1.7) |
7 | Weston-super-Mare | 47 | 78 | 71.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 8 | +9.9 | -1.8 | 1:3 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Dover (-2.0) |
8 | Hornchurch-Weston | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 27 | +3.0 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs super-Mare (+1.6) | 3:2 vs super-Mare (1.5) |
9 | Slough | 46 | 54 | 51.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 19 | +2.4 | +0.3 | 1:3 vs Maidenhead (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.5) |
10 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 53 | 50.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 21 | +0.1 | +2.7 | 0:3 vs Dorking (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.6) |
11 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 77 | 74.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 6 | +6.9 | -4.5 | 0:2 vs Dag & Red (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Weston-super-Mare (-1.9) |
12 | Chelmsford | 46 | 73 | 70.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 9 | -1.6 | +4.0 | 0:5 vs Torquay (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Eastbourne Boro (-2.2) |
13 | Worthing | 46 | 84 | 81.7 | +2.4Outperforming | 3 | +7.8 | -5.4 | 2:5 vs Dag & Red (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-2.2) |
14 | Mare-Dover | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.3Outperforming | 71 | 0.0 | +2.3 | 1:2 vs Weston-super (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Weston-super (2.2) |
15 | Mare-Tonbridge | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 61 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 0:1 vs Weston-super (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Weston-super (2.0) |
16 | Mare-Hornchurch | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 51 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 1:2 vs Weston-super (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Weston-super (1.8) |
17 | Chelmsford-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 45 | +1.7 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs super-Mare (+1.7) | 1:0 vs super-Mare (1.7) |
18 | Mare-Torquay | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 44 | 0.0 | +1.7 | 0:3 vs Weston-super (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Weston-super (1.7) |
19 | AFC Totton-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 41 | +1.6 | 0.0 | 3:1 vs super-Mare (+1.6) | 3:1 vs super-Mare (1.6) |
20 | Slough-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 42 | +1.6 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs super-Mare (+1.6) | 1:0 vs super-Mare (1.6) |
21 | Mare-Worthing | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 36 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 2:3 vs Weston-super (+1.4) | 2:3 vs Weston-super (1.4) |
22 | Dorking-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 37 | +1.4 | 0.0 | 3:2 vs super-Mare (+1.5) | 3:2 vs super-Mare (1.5) |
23 | Chesham-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 35 | +1.4 | 0.0 | 4:0 vs super-Mare (+1.4) | 4:0 vs super-Mare (1.4) |
24 | Maidstone | 46 | 77 | 75.6 | +1.4On expectation | 5 | +5.5 | -4.1 | 2:1 vs Worthing (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.1) |
25 | Maidstone-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 32 | +1.3 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs super-Mare (+1.3) | 2:1 vs super-Mare (1.3) |
26 | Torquay-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2On expectation | 31 | +1.2 | 0.0 | 3:1 vs super-Mare (+1.2) | 3:1 vs super-Mare (1.2) |
27 | Dover | 46 | 50 | 48.9 | +1.1On expectation | 22 | -3.4 | +4.5 | 1:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Chippenham (-1.5) |
28 | Hemel Hempstead-Weston | 1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.3On expectation | 28 | +1.6 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs super-Mare (+1.6) | 3:0 vs super-Mare (1.6) |
29 | Dag & Red-Weston | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 66 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs super-Mare (+0.2) | 0:0 vs super-Mare (0.2) |
30 | Tonbridge-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 62 | +0.0 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs super-Mare (+0.0) | 0:0 vs super-Mare (0.0) |
31 | Torquay | 47 | 83 | 83.1 | -0.1On expectation | 1 | +5.2 | -3.9 | 1:2 vs Maidenhead (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.2) |
32 | Dover-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 55 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs super-Mare (+-0.2) | 1:1 vs super-Mare (-0.2) |
33 | Mare-Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2On expectation | 54 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.2) | 0:0 vs Weston-super (-0.2) |
34 | Bath-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 49 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs super-Mare (+-0.3) | 0:0 vs super-Mare (-0.3) |
35 | Mare-Dorking | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 48 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.3) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (-0.3) |
36 | Horsham FC-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4On expectation | 43 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs super-Mare (+-0.4) | 1:1 vs super-Mare (-0.4) |
37 | Mare-Chelmsford | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5On expectation | 40 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.5) | 0:0 vs Weston-super (-0.5) |
38 | Mare-Enfield Town | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6On expectation | 72 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.6) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-0.6) |
39 | Mare-Horsham FC | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 70 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.8) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-0.8) |
40 | Mare-Chippenham | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 68 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.8) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-0.8) |
41 | Mare-Farnborough | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 69 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 4:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.8) | 4:1 vs Weston-super (-0.8) |
42 | Mare-Slough | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 67 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 5:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.8) | 5:1 vs Weston-super (-0.8) |
43 | Mare-Salisbury | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 65 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.9) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-0.9) |
44 | Worthing-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9On expectation | 29 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs super-Mare (+-0.9) | 1:1 vs super-Mare (-0.9) |
45 | Mare-Bath | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 64 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.9) | 2:1 vs Weston-super (-0.9) |
46 | Dorking | 48 | 82 | 82.9 | -0.9On expectation | 2 | +12.3 | -13.3 | 3:1 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Hampton & Richmond (-2.4) |
47 | Mare-Chesham | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 63 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.9) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-0.9) |
48 | Mare-Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 60 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.0) | 2:0 vs Weston-super (-1.0) |
49 | Mare-Eastbourne Boro | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 59 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 3:1 vs Weston-super (+-1.0) | 3:1 vs Weston-super (-1.0) |
50 | Enfield Town-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 58 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-1.0) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-1.0) |
51 | Hampton & Richmond-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 57 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-1.1) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-1.1) |
52 | Mare-AFC Totton | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 56 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.1) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-1.1) |
53 | Salisbury-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 52 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.2) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.2) |
54 | Mare-Ebbsfleet | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 53 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.2) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-1.2) |
55 | Chippenham-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 50 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.3) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.3) |
56 | Eastbourne Boro-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 47 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.3) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.3) |
57 | Mare-Maidstone | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 46 | 0.0 | -1.3 | 3:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.3) | 3:0 vs Weston-super (-1.3) |
58 | Mare-Dag & Red | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5On expectation | 39 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 3:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.5) | 3:0 vs Weston-super (-1.5) |
59 | Mare-Maidenhead | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5On expectation | 38 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 1:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.5) | 1:0 vs Weston-super (-1.5) |
60 | Maidenhead-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7On expectation | 33 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.7) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.7) |
61 | Farnborough-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7On expectation | 34 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs super-Mare (+-1.7) | 1:3 vs super-Mare (-1.7) |
62 | Maidenhead | 47 | 77 | 78.7 | -1.7On expectation | 4 | +1.8 | -3.5 | 0:1 vs Maidstone (+1.7) | 1:3 vs Slough (-2.2) |
63 | Ebbsfleet-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9On expectation | 30 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs super-Mare (+-1.9) | 1:3 vs super-Mare (-1.9) |
64 | Horsham FC | 46 | 59 | 60.9 | -1.9On expectation | 13 | -2.2 | +0.3 | 2:1 vs Torquay (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Chesham (-1.7) |
65 | Dag & Red | 46 | 64 | 66.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 11 | +1.2 | -3.4 | 1:4 vs Chelmsford (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.9) |
66 | super-Mare | 24 | 30 | 33.1 | -3.1Underperforming | 26 | 0.0 | -1.8 | 1:3 vs Ebbsfleet-Weston (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Chelmsford-Weston (-1.4) |
67 | Farnborough | 46 | 53 | 56.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 17 | -0.7 | -2.8 | 2:0 vs Dorking (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Dover (-1.8) |
68 | Salisbury | 46 | 53 | 57.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 16 | +4.8 | -9.2 | 5:4 vs Worthing (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Tonbridge (-1.9) |
69 | Enfield Town | 46 | 40 | 45.9 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 24 | +1.8 | -7.6 | 2:1 vs Maidstone (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.3) |
70 | Chippenham | 46 | 42 | 48.6 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 23 | +7.1 | -13.8 | 1:0 vs Torquay (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Bath (-1.5) |
71 | Bath | 46 | 43 | 54.0 | -11.1Underperforming −− | 18 | -4.8 | -6.3 | 1:3 vs Dorking (+2.6) | 1:2 vs Dover (-1.8) |
72 | Eastbourne Boro | 46 | 36 | 57.6 | -21.6Underperforming −− | 15 | -16.6 | -5.1 | 1:3 vs Chelmsford (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Dover (-1.9) |
