National League Southhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | St. Albans | 15 | 32 | 22.6 | +9.4Outperforming ++ | 8 | +4.0 | +5.4 | 0:1 vs Dartford (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Chelmsford (-1.5) |
2 | Hungerford | 19 | 29 | 19.8 | +9.2Outperforming ++ | 12 | +2.9 | +6.2 | 1:3 vs Slough (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Dulwich Hamlet (-1.3) |
3 | Dorking | 18 | 39 | 30.6 | +8.4Outperforming ++ | 2 | +2.7 | +5.7 | 2:3 vs Dartford (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Bath (-2.0) |
4 | Eastbourne Boro | 19 | 33 | 26.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 5 | +1.8 | +5.1 | 1:2 vs Havant & W (+2.1) | 0:1 vs St. Albans (-1.4) |
5 | Hampton & Richmond | 17 | 29 | 24.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 6 | -4.0 | +8.9 | 0:2 vs Oxford City (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.8) |
6 | Oxford City | 17 | 32 | 27.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 4 | +1.3 | +2.9 | 2:0 vs Bath (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.9) |
7 | Dartford | 19 | 34 | 31.4 | +2.6Outperforming | 1 | +0.4 | +2.2 | 0:2 vs Maidstone (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Braintree (-1.9) |
8 | Tonbridge | 14 | 16 | 15.1 | +0.9On expectation | 20 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 0:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Hungerford (-1.8) |
9 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 28 | 28.0 | -0.0On expectation | 3 | -0.7 | +0.6 | 1:2 vs Billericay (+1.7) | 0:1 vs Tonbridge (-2.0) |
10 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 16 | 17.1 | -1.1On expectation | 18 | -2.2 | +1.1 | 1:4 vs Bath (+1.8) | 1:4 vs Concord (-1.9) |
11 | Hemel Hempstead | 18 | 20 | 21.1 | -1.1On expectation | 11 | -7.8 | +6.7 | 2:3 vs Havant & W (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Hungerford (-1.7) |
12 | Braintree | 16 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7Underperforming | 19 | -1.2 | -1.5 | 0:2 vs Maidstone (+2.3) | 3:1 vs Billericay (-1.3) |
13 | Maidstone | 13 | 19 | 21.7 | -2.7Underperforming | 10 | -1.6 | -1.1 | 2:3 vs Slough (+1.5) | 0:2 vs Braintree (-2.1) |
14 | Welling | 14 | 12 | 14.8 | -2.8Underperforming | 21 | -2.0 | -0.7 | 4:3 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Chippenham (-1.4) |
15 | Billericay | 17 | 16 | 19.0 | -3.0Underperforming | 14 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 2:0 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Tonbridge (-1.7) |
16 | Chippenham | 14 | 16 | 19.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 13 | -3.9 | +0.7 | 0:2 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+1.8) | 3:0 vs Hungerford (-1.6) |
17 | Concord | 14 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 15 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 1:4 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
18 | Havant & W | 14 | 20 | 24.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 7 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 0:3 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.6) | 2:3 vs Hemel Hempstead (-2.0) |
19 | Bath | 13 | 13 | 17.6 | -4.6Underperforming | 16 | -1.9 | -2.7 | 1:2 vs Dorking (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.9) |
20 | Slough | 12 | 12 | 17.3 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 17 | -1.4 | -3.9 | 2:1 vs Bath (+1.6) | 1:3 vs Hungerford (-1.9) |
21 | Chelmsford | 16 | 16 | 22.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 9 | -5.3 | -1.2 | 0:2 vs St. Albans (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Tonbridge (-2.0) |
