National League Southhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Maidstone | 40 | 87 | 70.6 | +16.4Outperforming ++ | 4 | +10.0 | +6.4 | 2:3 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.1) | 3:2 vs Welling (-2.0) |
2 | Chippenham | 40 | 59 | 49.7 | +9.3Outperforming ++ | 15 | +5.1 | +4.2 | 1:0 vs Havant & W (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Welling (-1.9) |
3 | Oxford City | 40 | 69 | 61.3 | +7.7Outperforming ++ | 6 | +2.8 | +4.9 | 1:2 vs Havant & W (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Billericay (-1.9) |
4 | Eastbourne Boro | 40 | 60 | 52.7 | +7.3Outperforming ++ | 10 | +5.8 | +1.5 | 0:2 vs Maidstone (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Billericay (-1.7) |
5 | Dorking | 40 | 81 | 74.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 1 | +12.1 | -5.7 | 0:2 vs Maidstone (+1.9) | 1:3 vs Tonbridge (-2.3) |
6 | Concord | 40 | 49 | 44.4 | +4.6Outperforming | 19 | +7.5 | -2.9 | 1:0 vs Dartford (+2.3) | 2:1 vs Welling (-2.0) |
7 | Dartford | 40 | 74 | 71.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 3 | +0.5 | +2.2 | 3:2 vs Dorking (+1.7) | 1:0 vs Concord (-2.1) |
8 | Ebbsfleet | 40 | 76 | 73.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 2 | +2.3 | -0.1 | 1:0 vs Dartford (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Hungerford (-2.1) |
9 | Welling | 40 | 38 | 36.7 | +1.3On expectation | 21 | +3.5 | -2.2 | 0:1 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+2.5) | 1:4 vs Hungerford (-1.2) |
10 | Slough | 40 | 49 | 48.5 | +0.5On expectation | 16 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 1:2 vs Havant & W (+2.4) | 2:1 vs Billericay (-1.5) |
11 | Braintree | 40 | 45 | 45.1 | -0.1On expectation | 18 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0:1 vs Dartford (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Billericay (-1.7) |
12 | Hungerford | 40 | 49 | 49.8 | -0.8On expectation | 14 | -4.0 | +3.2 | 1:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+2.3) | 1:4 vs Billericay (-1.8) |
13 | Hemel Hempstead | 40 | 48 | 50.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 12 | -3.3 | +1.1 | 0:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Chippenham (-1.5) |
14 | Tonbridge | 40 | 45 | 48.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 17 | -2.2 | -1.2 | 1:3 vs Dorking (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Slough (-1.8) |
15 | St. Albans | 40 | 52 | 55.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 9 | -3.3 | -0.2 | 1:0 vs Dorking (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Braintree (-1.8) |
16 | Bath | 40 | 45 | 50.0 | -5.0Underperforming | 13 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 1:3 vs Havant & W (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Chelmsford (-1.6) |
17 | Billericay | 40 | 36 | 41.6 | -5.6Underperforming −− | 20 | -6.4 | +0.8 | 1:2 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Bath (-1.5) |
18 | Dulwich Hamlet | 40 | 51 | 57.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 8 | -4.3 | -2.1 | 5:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Welling (-2.3) |
19 | Hampton & Richmond | 40 | 51 | 57.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 7 | -0.3 | -6.1 | 3:0 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.9) |
20 | Havant & W | 40 | 57 | 64.4 | -7.4Underperforming −− | 5 | -4.7 | -2.7 | 4:2 vs Ebbsfleet (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Slough (-2.2) |
21 | Chelmsford | 40 | 41 | 51.1 | -10.1Underperforming −− | 11 | -7.3 | -2.8 | 1:3 vs Dulwich Hamlet (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Hungerford (-1.7) |
