National League Southhub →National League South 2023-2024 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chippenham | 46 | 62 | 44.6 | +17.4Outperforming ++ | 23 | +4.5 | +12.9 | 0:1 vs Maidstone (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Tonbridge (-1.3) |
2 | Braintree | 46 | 81 | 66.3 | +14.7Outperforming ++ | 9 | +7.4 | +7.3 | 4:0 vs Worthing (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Eastbourne Boro (-2.0) |
3 | Yeovil | 45 | 95 | 81.5 | +13.5Outperforming ++ | 1 | +10.2 | +3.3 | 1:2 vs Worthing (+1.7) | 1:3 vs Chippenham (-2.2) |
4 | Chelmsford | 46 | 84 | 73.4 | +10.6Outperforming ++ | 4 | +0.2 | +10.4 | 2:3 vs Worthing (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Dover (-2.3) |
5 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 72 | 62.2 | +9.8Outperforming ++ | 14 | +10.2 | -0.4 | 0:1 vs Taunton (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Aveley (-1.5) |
6 | Aveley | 46 | 73 | 64.1 | +8.9Outperforming ++ | 11 | +3.4 | +5.5 | 1:2 vs Worthing (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Weymouth (-1.6) |
7 | Maidstone | 46 | 83 | 76.3 | +6.7Outperforming ++ | 3 | +7.4 | -0.7 | 2:1 vs Yeovil (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Chippenham (-2.3) |
8 | Worthing | 46 | 84 | 77.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 2 | -4.2 | +10.6 | 0:3 vs Torquay (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Taunton (-2.4) |
9 | Bath | 45 | 73 | 67.2 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 8 | +1.7 | +4.0 | 1:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Farnborough (-1.5) |
10 | St. Albans | 46 | 68 | 62.3 | +5.8Outperforming ++ | 13 | -1.8 | +7.6 | 0:3 vs Dartford (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Chippenham (-1.9) |
11 | Welling | 46 | 54 | 53.1 | +0.9On expectation | 21 | +4.0 | -3.1 | 0:1 vs Yeovil (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.6) |
12 | Farnborough | 46 | 72 | 72.2 | -0.2On expectation | 5 | +2.0 | -2.2 | 2:3 vs Worthing (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Taunton (-2.1) |
13 | Weymouth | 45 | 53 | 54.7 | -1.7On expectation | 20 | -3.5 | +1.8 | 2:3 vs Weston-super-Mare (+2.2) | 2:4 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.5) |
14 | Tonbridge | 46 | 58 | 60.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 15 | +0.1 | -2.4 | 2:5 vs Slough (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Welling (-1.8) |
15 | Slough | 45 | 65 | 67.5 | -2.5Underperforming | 7 | -0.4 | -2.1 | 1:2 vs Dartford (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Dover (-2.0) |
16 | Truro | 46 | 55 | 58.4 | -3.4Underperforming | 17 | -2.1 | -1.3 | 3:1 vs Maidstone (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Chippenham (-2.1) |
17 | Weston-super-Mare | 46 | 59 | 62.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 12 | -5.5 | +1.7 | 3:2 vs Torquay (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Weymouth (-1.9) |
18 | Eastbourne Boro | 46 | 52 | 57.9 | -5.9Underperforming −− | 18 | -1.2 | -4.7 | 2:3 vs Braintree (+2.2) | 4:2 vs Chippenham (-1.7) |
19 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 50 | 56.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 19 | -3.5 | -2.9 | 1:2 vs Chelmsford (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Chippenham (-2.0) |
20 | Torquay | 46 | 64 | 70.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 6 | +2.4 | -8.9 | 1:2 vs Truro (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Taunton (-1.9) |
21 | Taunton | 46 | 46 | 52.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 22 | -4.6 | -1.9 | 1:3 vs Worthing (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.6) |
22 | Dover | 46 | 27 | 41.6 | -14.6Underperforming −− | 24 | -5.8 | -8.8 | 1:0 vs Chelmsford (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (-1.3) |
23 | Dartford | 46 | 46 | 65.3 | -19.3Underperforming −− | 10 | -12.0 | -7.3 | 3:4 vs Worthing (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Chippenham (-1.9) |
24 | Havant & W | 46 | 37 | 59.1 | -22.1Underperforming −− | 16 | -7.5 | -14.6 | 2:4 vs Farnborough (+2.1) | 2:4 vs Chippenham (-1.9) |