National League Southhub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Truro | 43 | 85 | 67.2 | +17.8Outperforming ++ | 6 | +8.9 | +8.9 | 1:2 vs Maidstone (+2.1) | 3:2 vs Enfield Town (-1.9) |
2 | Eastbourne Boro | 44 | 82 | 65.5 | +16.5Outperforming ++ | 8 | +11.6 | +5.0 | 2:1 vs Boreham Wood (+2.1) | 3:0 vs Chippenham (-1.5) |
3 | Torquay | 44 | 85 | 71.0 | +14.0Outperforming ++ | 4 | +6.6 | +7.4 | 0:1 vs Dorking (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Chesham (-1.9) |
4 | super-Mare | 23 | 42 | 29.7 | +12.3Outperforming ++ | 25 | 0.0 | +12.3 | 0:1 vs Boreham Wood-Weston (+2.2) | 2:0 vs Chippenham-Weston (-1.9) |
5 | Worthing | 43 | 81 | 69.3 | +11.7Outperforming ++ | 5 | +6.2 | +5.5 | 1:2 vs Boreham Wood (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Farnborough (-1.9) |
6 | Hornchurch | 44 | 65 | 56.6 | +8.4Outperforming ++ | 12 | +5.0 | +3.4 | 2:1 vs Boreham Wood (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.8) |
7 | Hemel Hempstead | 44 | 61 | 53.7 | +7.3Outperforming ++ | 18 | +7.1 | +0.2 | 0:1 vs Farnborough (+2.2) | 2:5 vs Eastbourne Boro (-1.5) |
8 | Dorking | 44 | 85 | 78.0 | +7.0Outperforming ++ | 2 | +0.4 | +6.6 | 0:1 vs Boreham Wood (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Weymouth (-2.1) |
9 | Chippenham | 44 | 53 | 49.0 | +4.0Outperforming | 20 | -6.1 | +10.1 | 1:4 vs Boreham Wood (+2.5) | 0:3 vs Bath (-1.6) |
10 | Enfield Town | 44 | 44 | 40.8 | +3.2Outperforming | 23 | -1.1 | +4.3 | 1:3 vs Tonbridge (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Tonbridge (-1.3) |
11 | Mare-Welling | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 67 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 1:4 vs Weston-super (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Weston-super (2.2) |
12 | Chippenham-Weston | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.1Outperforming | 66 | +2.1 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs super-Mare (+2.1) | 2:0 vs super-Mare (2.1) |
13 | Mare-Chippenham | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 65 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 1:3 vs Weston-super (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Weston-super (2.0) |
14 | Mare-Salisbury | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0Outperforming | 63 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 1:2 vs Weston-super (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Weston-super (2.0) |
15 | Mare-Eastbourne Boro | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 54 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 0:1 vs Weston-super (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Weston-super (1.8) |
16 | Enfield Town-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 50 | +1.7 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs super-Mare (+1.7) | 1:0 vs super-Mare (1.7) |
17 | Mare-Truro | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 46 | 0.0 | +1.7 | 0:2 vs Weston-super (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Weston-super (1.7) |
18 | Tonbridge-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 45 | +1.6 | 0.0 | 2:0 vs super-Mare (+1.7) | 2:0 vs super-Mare (1.7) |
19 | Mare-Worthing | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 41 | 0.0 | +1.6 | 3:4 vs Weston-super (+1.6) | 3:4 vs Weston-super (1.6) |
20 | Farnborough-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 40 | +1.6 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs super-Mare (+1.6) | 2:1 vs super-Mare (1.6) |
21 | Torquay-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 37 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 4:2 vs super-Mare (+1.5) | 4:2 vs super-Mare (1.5) |
22 | Worthing-Weston | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 35 | +1.5 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs super-Mare (+1.5) | 3:0 vs super-Mare (1.5) |
23 | Maidstone | 43 | 78 | 76.7 | +1.4On expectation | 3 | -3.0 | +4.3 | 0:2 vs Worthing (+1.7) | 0:2 vs Aveley (-2.3) |
24 | Eastbourne Boro-Weston | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0On expectation | 27 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs super-Mare (+1.0) | 3:0 vs super-Mare (1.0) |
25 | Mare-Enfield Town | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3On expectation | 70 | 0.0 | +0.3 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+0.4) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (0.4) |
26 | Mare-Weymouth | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 69 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+0.2) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (0.2) |
27 | Bath | 43 | 55 | 54.9 | +0.1On expectation | 15 | +1.8 | -1.7 | 0:1 vs Chesham (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Enfield Town (-2.0) |
28 | Mare-Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0On expectation | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.0) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (-0.0) |
29 | Mare-Bath | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.0On expectation | 62 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.0) | 0:0 vs Weston-super (-0.0) |
30 | Mare-St. Albans | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 59 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.1) | 0:0 vs Weston-super (-0.1) |
31 | Mare-Chesham | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 58 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.1) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (-0.1) |
32 | St. Albans-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2On expectation | 55 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs super-Mare (+-0.2) | 0:0 vs super-Mare (-0.2) |
33 | Mare-Dorking | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2On expectation | 52 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.2) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (-0.2) |
34 | Mare-Tonbridge | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3On expectation | 71 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 3:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.3) | 3:0 vs Weston-super (-0.3) |
35 | Mare-Torquay | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4On expectation | 44 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 1:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.4) | 1:1 vs Weston-super (-0.4) |
36 | Hampton & Richmond-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5On expectation | 36 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0:0 vs super-Mare (+-0.5) | 0:0 vs super-Mare (-0.5) |
37 | Truro-Weston | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6On expectation | 31 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs super-Mare (+-0.6) | 1:1 vs super-Mare (-0.6) |
38 | Mare-Boreham Wood | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7On expectation | 30 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0:0 vs Weston-super (+-0.7) | 0:0 vs Weston-super (-0.7) |
39 | Mare-Aveley | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 68 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 4:1 vs Weston-super (+-0.8) | 4:1 vs Weston-super (-0.8) |
40 | Hemel Hempstead-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 61 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-1.0) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-1.0) |
41 | Mare-Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 60 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 3:1 vs Weston-super (+-1.1) | 3:1 vs Weston-super (-1.1) |
42 | Boreham Wood | 43 | 82 | 83.1 | -1.1On expectation | 1 | +2.9 | -4.0 | 2:3 vs Chelmsford (+1.4) | 1:4 vs Chippenham (-2.4) |
43 | Weymouth-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 57 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.1) | 0:2 vs super-Mare (-1.1) |
44 | Mare-Farnborough | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 56 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 4:3 vs Weston-super (+-1.2) | 4:3 vs Weston-super (-1.2) |
45 | Welling-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 53 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs super-Mare (+-1.2) | 1:3 vs super-Mare (-1.2) |
46 | Salisbury-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 51 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.2) | 0:2 vs super-Mare (-1.2) |
47 | Hornchurch-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 48 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 2:4 vs super-Mare (+-1.3) | 2:4 vs super-Mare (-1.3) |
48 | Bath-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 49 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.3) | 0:2 vs super-Mare (-1.3) |
49 | Mare-Hornchurch | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3On expectation | 47 | 0.0 | -1.3 | 3:2 vs Weston-super (+-1.3) | 3:2 vs Weston-super (-1.3) |
50 | Tonbridge | 44 | 54 | 55.3 | -1.3On expectation | 14 | +2.0 | -3.4 | 0:2 vs Farnborough (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Enfield Town (-2.1) |
51 | Chelmsford-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 43 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-1.4) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-1.4) |
52 | Aveley-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 42 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.4) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.4) |
53 | Slough-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5On expectation | 39 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs super-Mare (+-1.5) | 1:3 vs super-Mare (-1.5) |
54 | Mare-Slough | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5On expectation | 38 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 2:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.5) | 2:0 vs Weston-super (-1.5) |
55 | Mare-Maidstone | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6On expectation | 34 | 0.0 | -1.6 | 3:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.6) | 3:0 vs Weston-super (-1.6) |
56 | Mare-Chelmsford | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6On expectation | 33 | 0.0 | -1.6 | 2:0 vs Weston-super (+-1.6) | 2:0 vs Weston-super (-1.6) |
57 | Chesham-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6On expectation | 32 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1:2 vs super-Mare (+-1.6) | 1:2 vs super-Mare (-1.6) |
58 | Chesham | 44 | 58 | 59.7 | -1.7On expectation | 11 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 1:2 vs Torquay (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Enfield Town (-1.9) |
59 | Maidstone-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8On expectation | 29 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-1.8) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-1.8) |
60 | Dorking-Weston | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9On expectation | 28 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 1:3 vs super-Mare (+-1.9) | 1:3 vs super-Mare (-1.9) |
61 | Chelmsford | 43 | 61 | 63.0 | -2.0On expectation | 9 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 1:5 vs Maidstone (+2.0) | 2:1 vs Enfield Town (-1.9) |
62 | Boreham Wood-Weston | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0On expectation | 26 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 0:1 vs super-Mare (+-2.0) | 0:1 vs super-Mare (-2.0) |
63 | Weston-super | 23 | 33 | 37.0 | -4.0Underperforming | 24 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 3:0 vs Mare-Maidstone (+1.9) | 1:4 vs Mare-Welling (-1.9) |
64 | Hampton & Richmond | 44 | 50 | 54.7 | -4.7Underperforming | 16 | -4.0 | -0.6 | 0:1 vs Torquay (+2.0) | 0:1 vs St. Albans (-1.8) |
65 | Slough | 44 | 57 | 62.2 | -5.2Underperforming −− | 10 | +3.4 | -8.6 | 1:0 vs Maidstone (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Welling (-2.1) |
66 | Farnborough | 44 | 60 | 65.8 | -5.8Underperforming −− | 7 | +1.7 | -7.6 | 1:2 vs Worthing (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Hemel Hempstead (-1.9) |
67 | Salisbury | 44 | 43 | 54.0 | -11.0Underperforming −− | 17 | -4.5 | -6.5 | 2:1 vs Boreham Wood (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Aveley (-2.0) |
68 | St. Albans | 44 | 43 | 56.2 | -13.2Underperforming −− | 13 | -4.0 | -9.3 | 0:1 vs Hampton & Richmond (+2.0) | 0:2 vs Chippenham (-1.7) |
69 | Aveley | 44 | 32 | 45.3 | -13.3Underperforming −− | 22 | -4.9 | -8.4 | 0:2 vs Maidstone (+2.5) | 0:1 vs Enfield Town (-1.6) |
70 | Welling | 44 | 35 | 49.2 | -14.2Underperforming −− | 19 | -1.1 | -13.1 | 2:3 vs Slough (+2.3) | 0:4 vs Chippenham (-1.5) |
71 | Weymouth | 44 | 32 | 46.8 | -14.8Underperforming −− | 21 | -6.6 | -8.2 | 2:1 vs Boreham Wood (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Enfield Town (-1.7) |
