Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-12 · 21:00 CET
WDWDW
WLWWLThe score model made an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.25 – 1.02 Fluminense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG win | 41.1% | 46.1% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Fluminense win | 29.8% | 24.9% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 43.3% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 23.6% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 48.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 29.7% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico-MG 52.5 / Fluminense 53.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.