Biggest divergence
Bucheon FC 1995 – Jeju SK+5.5%
Under 2.5 · data 62% vs market 57%
Fastest starters
Gangwon18%
6 of their 34 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Pohang42%
10 of their 24 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+7.4uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-10.6 ptsGwangju FC produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
29%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 36' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Bucheon FC 1995 – Jeju SK2026-09-12 07:30Under 2.5 ✓62.4%vs 56.8%▲ +5.5%- Jeonbuk – Seoul2026-09-12 07:30Under 2.5 ✓56.3%vs 51.8%▲ +4.5%
- Daejeon – Pohang2026-09-12 10:00Away win ✓28.3%vs 24.6%▲ +3.7%
- Ulsan HD – Incheon2026-09-12 07:30Under 2.5 ✓55.6%vs 52.6%▲ +3.0%
- Gimcheon Sangmu – Gangwon2026-09-13 07:30Under 2.5 ✓61.9%vs 59.9%▲ +2.0%
- Gwangju FC – Anyang2026-09-13 10:00Over 2.551.5%vs 51.5%-0.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bucheon FC 1995– Jeju SK | 2026-09-12 | 07:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 62.4% | 56.8% | ▲ +5.5% | 1.76 | |
| 2 |  Jeonbuk– Seoul | 2026-09-12 | 07:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.3% | 51.8% | ▲ +4.5% | 1.93 | |
| 3 |  Daejeon– Pohang | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | Away win ✓ | 28.3% | 24.6% | ▲ +3.7% | 4.07 | |
| 4 |  Ulsan HD– Incheon | 2026-09-12 | 07:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.6% | 52.6% | ▲ +3.0% | 1.90 | |
| 5 |  Gimcheon Sangmu– Gangwon | 2026-09-13 | 07:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 61.9% | 59.9% | ▲ +2.0% | 1.67 | |
| 6 |  Gwangju FC– Anyang | 2026-09-13 | 10:00 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 51.5% | -0.0% | 1.94 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining K League 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Seoul win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~67 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Gwangju FC finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seoul | 59 | 67 | 64–71 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 44 | 52 | 48–56 | — | 89% | — |
| 3 | Jeonbuk | 43 | 51 | 48–55 | — | 86% | — |
| 4 | Gangwon | 41 | 49 | 45–54 | — | 63% | — |
| 5 | Jeju SK | 42 | 48 | 44–51 | — | 30% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 37 | 34–41 | — | <1% | 70% |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu | 29 | 36 | 32–39 | — | — | 82% |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 13 | 17 | 14–21 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 31 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/south-korea/k-league-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="K League 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/south-korea/k-league-1">K League 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every K League 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +7.4u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every K League 1 match in 2026: +7.4 units over 167 flat-stake bets.Away wins▲ +1.9u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every K League 1 match in 2026: +1.9 units over 167 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -10.2u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every K League 1 match in 2026: -10.2 units over 167 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -11.3u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every K League 1 match in 2026: -11.3 units over 167 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -19.3u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every K League 1 match in 2026: -19.3 units over 167 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -20.4u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every K League 1 match in 2026: -20.4 units over 167 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -52.5u
167 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every K League 1 match in 2026: -52.5 units over 167 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seoul | 59 | 48.5 | +10.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 44 | 41.5 | +2.5 | |
| 3 | Jeonbuk | 43 | 45.9 | -2.9 | |
| 4 | Jeju SK | 42 | 33.5 | +8.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | Gangwon | 41 | 42.9 | -1.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 29.3 | +1.7 | |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu | 29 | 36.7 | -7.7 | |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 13 | 23.6 | -10.6 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+