K League 1 title race 2026: who will win the league?
South Korea · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
The K League 1 title race is settled in the simulations: no club's chance is between 1% and 99%.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
No club is between 1% and 99% in the simulations.
Above 99%: Seoul. Below 1%: Ulsan HD, Jeonbuk, Gangwon, Daejeon, Jeju SK, Incheon, Anyang, Pohang, Gimcheon Sangmu, Bucheon FC 1995, Gwangju FC.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 6 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).