Seoul vs Incheon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-11-01 · 08:30 CET
WLWDD
DDWDWThe score model makes a Seoul win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.7% vs 71.1% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Seoul 1.44 – 1.01 Incheon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul win | 45.6% | 52.0% | -6.5% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.5% | +3.7% |
| Incheon win | 25.2% | 22.5% | +2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 49.6% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 28.9% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 51.9% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 34.2% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Seoul 48.8 / Incheon 36 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Seoul vs Incheon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.