Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-31 · 08:30 CET
DDWLW
DWLDLThe score model makes a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.6% vs 67.0% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.04 – 1.55 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 24.2% | 28.3% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.7% | +1.3% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 47.8% | 45.0% | +2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 53.6% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 33.0% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 57.5% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 36.9% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 48.7 / Gimcheon Sangmu 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.